Inside the Accrual Anomaly PDF Download

Author: Tzachi Zach
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accrual basis accounting
Languages : en
Pages : 117

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Author: Morton Pincus
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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Book Description
We consider stock markets in 20 countries to investigate whether the accruals anomaly (Sloan 1996), characterized by U.S. stock prices overweighting the role of accrual persistence, is a local manifestation of a global phenomenon. In addition, we structure our analysis to determine if the occurrence of the accrual anomaly is related to differences in institutional or accounting structures across the countries. We consider a country's legal tradition, institutional and accounting characteristics linked to earnings management, and capital market characteristics. We find that stock prices overweight accruals in four of the 20 countries we consider: Australia, Canada, the U.K., and the U.S. Results from our multivariate analysis indicate the accrual anomaly is more likely to occur in countries where extensive use of accrual accounting is permitted, the strength of shareholder protection is lower, concentration of share ownership is low, and the legal tradition derives from common law.

Author: Xiumin Martin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Accrual basis accounting
Languages : en
Pages :

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The first essay, "Inter-temporal accrual persistence and accrual anomaly" investigates whether accrual persistence and accrual anomaly vary with the state of economy. Prior accounting research argues that diminishing marginal returns on new investments drive lower persistence of accruals relative to cash flows. Macroeconomic research documents that marginal profitability is counter-cyclical, which implies that diminishing marginal returns on new investments are more pronounced during periods of expansions than recessions. Linking the cyclicality of diminishing returns on investments with the argument that diminishing returns to investments contribute to lower persistence of accruals relative to cash flows, this paper predicts that the differential persistence of accruals is greater during expansionary periods than recessionary periods. Using a U.S. sample from 1972 to 2003, I find that the differential persistence of accruals is greater during economic expansions than recessions. When I focus on the components of accruals, I find that depreciation, change in accounts receivable, change in raw materials, and change in finished goods are the main drivers of cyclical differential accrual persistence. These findings are robust to alternative conditioning sets, estimation procedures, and measures of the business cycle. I also find that investors are unable to assess the cyclical differential persistence of accruals, leading to higher returns (both raw and abnormal returns) from an accrual-based trading strategy during expansionary periods. The second essay "Can cyclical property of accrual persistence explain the accrual anomaly?" examines whether cyclical accrual persistence documented in the first essay can provide an explanation to accrual anomaly based on consumption based assets pricing theory. Specifically, I posit that accruals decrease in consumption risk because of cyclical property of accrual persistence (i.e., accruals are less persistent during economic expansions than during recessions). The implication is that the observed abnormal returns from accrual-trading strategy represent compensation for the underlying consumption risk. Using a U.S. sample from 1972 to 2003, I find that consumption risk decreases in the level of accruals. I also show that after controlling for other known risk factors, pricing kernel (a proxy for the state of economy) can explain about 11 percent of abnormal returns from accrual-based trading strategy. These findings are robust to alternative conditioning set and estimation procedures.

Author: George A. Papanastasopoulos
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Numerous studies claim that the accrual anomaly in the U.S. stock market is due mostly to temporary accounting distortions arising from accrual accounting. We examine the validity of this explanation in an international setting. Across the 15 developed European equity markets we examine, accounting distortions contribute to the negative relation between accruals and future earnings performance in 14 equity markets. Further, we show that the negative relation between accruals and stock returns could be at least attributable to accounting distortions. In particular, accruals related to accounting distortions predict returns in 7 out of the 9 markets where the accrual anomaly occurs in Europe. Finally, we show that the impact of accounting distortions on the pricing of the accrual component of earnings is stronger in markets with a higher level of trust and a lower level of secrecy.

Author: Leonard Zacks
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118127765
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352

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Book Description
Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.

Author: Leonidas C. Doukakis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
On the basis of an accrual decomposition into two components capturing output growth and accounting distortions, this paper analyzes the effects of accounting accruals on firms' future performance in the U.K. stock market. Findings reveal a strong negative association of accruals with future profitability and stock returns. The effect of accruals on future earnings performance is driven only by the component attributable to accounting distortions, and the accrual effect on stock price performance is driven by both the component attributable to accounting distortions and the component attributable to growth. These two components complement each other in driving the accrual effect on stock returns.

Author: Frank Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
This paper investigates two competing hypotheses for the accrual anomaly: investment/growth and persistence. Both investment/growth and persistence information in accruals are likely to vary cross-sectionally, depending on a firm's business model, a fact that generates different cross-sectional implications for the accrual anomaly. I find that the magnitude of the accrual anomaly monotonically increases with the investment information contained in accruals, as measured by the co-variation between accruals and employee growth. In industries/firms in which accruals co-vary with employee growth, accruals show strong predictive power for future stock returns. In industries/firms in which accruals show little correlations with employee growth, the accrual anomaly is much weaker. In contrast, the evidence from the cross-sectional analysis is inconsistent with the persistence argument. From the earnings perspective, the evidence on one-year-ahead earnings growth is inconclusive, but the results on longer-term earnings growth support the investment argument but not the persistence argument. Collectively, I conclude that these results support the view that the accrual anomaly is attributable to the fundamental investment information contained in accruals.

Author: Paul Hoefsloot
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783848440184
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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This paper investigates the existence of the accrual anomaly on the Dutch stock market. It documents that there is statistical evidence to accept that the cash flow component of current earnings is significantly more persistent than the accrual component of current earnings with respect to future earnings. Applying a trading strategy this paper shows that a significant abnormal return can de made by constructing a portfolio consisting of firms with relatively low accruals. However, contrary to U.S. findings, a hedge return consisting of a long position in low accruals firms and a short position in high accruals firms (hedge portfolio) generates neither substantial nor statistically significant returns.

Author: Zhaoyang Gu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47

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Book Description
We argue and show that aggregation of accrual components (changes in inventories, changes in accounts payable, changes in accounts receivable and depreciation expense) into total accruals results in a loss of mispricing-related information in individual accrual components. This motivates us to examine whether the recent evidence that operating cash flows subsume the mispricing effect associated with total accruals holds when accruals are disaggregated into accrual components. We find that accrual components are associated with future abnormal returns even after controlling for operating cash flows and growth. The three-day earnings announcement period abnormal returns also support the finding. The evidence with respect to change in accounts payable is especially noteworthy because its inclusion in total accruals reduces the mispricing effects of other components considerably. Overall, the prior evidence that operating cash flows subsume the mispricing effects associated with total accruals is likely caused by the aggregation of accrual components into total accruals. Future research would benefit from focusing on accrual components rather than total accruals.

Author: Sami Keskek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This study investigates whether market learning explains the absence of the accrual anomaly in recent years by examining three conditions associated with the presence of the anomaly in prior research: (i) a differential relation between future earnings and cash flows versus accruals, (ii) incorrect weighting of cash flows and accruals by investors when predicting earnings, and (iii) association of earnings forecast errors with returns. All of these conditions are widely documented in the anomaly period. In the no-anomaly period, I continue to find a differential relation of cash flows and accruals with future earnings. However, investors appear to correctly weight accruals and cash flows in their earnings predictions implicit in beginning-of-year security prices, consistent with learning. This study also investigates whether improvements in analyst forecasts contribute to investor learning and the absence of the anomaly. The association between analyst optimism and accruals is weaker in the no-anomaly period, but is still statistically significant. Furthermore, the anomaly ended simultaneously for firms followed by analysts and for non-followed firms, suggesting that improvements in analyst forecasts alone cannot account for improved market efficiency with respect to accruals. The results suggest that the anomaly was similar for firms held by institutional investors and for firms with no institutional holdings before the discovery of the anomaly while the anomaly ended sooner for held firms than for non-held firms after the discovery of the anomaly, consistent with the conjecture that arbitrage by institutional investors reduce the anomaly. Overall, the findings are consistent with market learning and suggest that improvement in investors' interpretation of accruals after the discovery of the anomaly explains the end of the anomaly. This improvement in investor learning is not due to changes in analysts' forecasting behavior, however.