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Author: Jonas Dovern Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484305345 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.
Author: Jonas Dovern Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484305345 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.
Author: Jonas Dovern Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475587619 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.
Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475533861 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 55
Book Description
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
Author: Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455263427 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.
Author: Siegfried Bosch Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319044176 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 255
Book Description
The aim of this work is to offer a concise and self-contained 'lecture-style' introduction to the theory of classical rigid geometry established by John Tate, together with the formal algebraic geometry approach launched by Michel Raynaud. These Lectures are now viewed commonly as an ideal means of learning advanced rigid geometry, regardless of the reader's level of background. Despite its parsimonious style, the presentation illustrates a number of key facts even more extensively than any other previous work. This Lecture Notes Volume is a revised and slightly expanded version of a preprint that appeared in 2005 at the University of Münster's Collaborative Research Center "Geometrical Structures in Mathematics".
Author: Scott Soames Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0195145283 Category : Electronic books Languages : en Pages : 392
Book Description
Soames introduces a new conception of the relationship between linguistic meaning and assertions made by utterances. He gives meanings of proper names and natural-kind predicates and explains their use in attitude ascriptions.
Author: M.F. Thorpe Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0306470896 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 435
Book Description
Although rigidity has been studied since the time of Lagrange (1788) and Maxwell (1864), it is only in the last twenty-five years that it has begun to find applications in the basic sciences. The modern era starts with Laman (1970), who made the subject rigorous in two dimensions, followed by the development of computer algorithms that can test over a million sites in seconds and find the rigid regions, and the associated pivots, leading to many applications. This workshop was organized to bring together leading researchers studying the underlying theory, and to explore the various areas of science where applications of these ideas are being implemented.
Author: Mancur Olson Publisher: Yale University Press ISBN: 0300157673 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 285
Book Description
A leading political economist advances a new theory to explain the postwar shifts in the relative economic fortunes and positions of various nations and regions.
Author: Mr. Marco Arena Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513593757 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 81
Book Description
Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary policy and keep a safe distance from the risk of fiscal dominance. As central banks in the region move towards monetary policy tightening, the tapering, ending, and unwinding of APPs must also be carefully considered. Clear and transparent communication is critical at each step of the process, from the inception to the closure of APPs, particularly when a large shock hits and triggers a major policy shift.
Author: Jonas Dovern
Author: Jonas Dovern
Author: Jonas Dovern
Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion
Author: Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa
Author: Siegfried Bosch
Author: Scott Soames
Author: M.F. Thorpe
Author: N. Gregory Mankiw
Author: Mancur Olson
Author: Mr. Marco Arena