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Author: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498316220 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-to-GDP ratio would increase by about 5 percentage points over the next five years. In contrast, raising inflation to 6 percent for the next five years would reduce the average net debt-to-GDP ratio by about 11 percentage points under the full Fisher effect and about 14 percentage points under the partial Fisher effect. Thus higher inflation could help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio somewhat in advanced economies. However, it could hardly solve the debt problem on its own and would raise significant challenges and risks. First of all, it may be difficult to create higher inflation, as evidenced by Japan’s experience in the last few decades. In addition, un-anchoring of inflation expectations could increase long-term real interest rates, distort resource allocation, reduce economic growth, and hurt the lower–income households.
Author: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498316220 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-to-GDP ratio would increase by about 5 percentage points over the next five years. In contrast, raising inflation to 6 percent for the next five years would reduce the average net debt-to-GDP ratio by about 11 percentage points under the full Fisher effect and about 14 percentage points under the partial Fisher effect. Thus higher inflation could help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio somewhat in advanced economies. However, it could hardly solve the debt problem on its own and would raise significant challenges and risks. First of all, it may be difficult to create higher inflation, as evidenced by Japan’s experience in the last few decades. In addition, un-anchoring of inflation expectations could increase long-term real interest rates, distort resource allocation, reduce economic growth, and hurt the lower–income households.
Author: Ichiro Fukunaga Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513525301 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 23
Book Description
This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations based on the debt dynamics equation and estimations of impulse responses by local projections both suggest that a 1 percentage point shock to inflation rate reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.5 to 1 percentage points. The results also suggest that the impact is larger and more persistent when the debt maturity is longer, but the difference from the benchmark case is not significant. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce public debt burden only marginally in many advanced economies.
Author: Mr.Nicolas End Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513539698 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate–growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019.
Author: John B. Taylor Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0444594779 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1366
Book Description
Handbook of Macroeconomics surveys all major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues. It courageously examines why existing models failed during the financial crisis, and also addresses well-deserved criticism head on. With contributions from the world's chief macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and speculation on its future constitute an investment worth making. - Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research - Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498383181 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 202
Book Description
At a time when job creation tops the policy agenda globally, this issue of the Fiscal Monitor explores if and how fiscal policy can do more for jobs. It finds that while fiscal policy cannot substitute for comprehensive reforms, it can support job creation in a number of ways. First, deficit reduction can be designed and timed to minimize negative effects on employment. Second, fiscal policy can facilitate structural reforms in the labor market by offsetting their potential short term costs. And third, targeted fiscal measures, including labor tax cuts, can help tackle challenges in specific segments of the labor market, such as youth and older workers.
Author: Richard Barwell Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137515929 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 477
Book Description
This book reviews the key policy debates during the post-crash era, describing the issues that policymakers grappled with, the decisions that they took and the details of the policy instruments that were created. Focusing specifically on issues in monetary and fiscal policy, chapters demonstrate that very little that was done during this period conformed to the simple textbook treatment of macroeconomic policy: central banks cutting policy rates or finance ministers cutting the rate of income tax. The author guides the reader through the revolution in the conduct of macroeconomic policy in an engaging and approachable manner, and illuminates the key innovations in the toolkit and themes in the debate over past years with great detail, from negative rates to quantitative easing, and from austerity versus financial repression, restructuring and default to productivity puzzles and deflation.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498333168 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 18
Book Description
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and "Trade Integration adn Business Cycle Synchronization" (Kevin Cheng, Romain Duval, and Dulani Senevirante). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets" (Hites Ahir, Heedon Kang, and Prakash Loungani). September 2014 issue of the Bulletin also includes updates on IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as special announcements on new staff publications and the Fifteenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference. Also included is information on the latest issue of “IMF Economic Review” with a link to an article by Paul Krugman.
Author: Dimitrios D. Thomakos Publisher: Springer ISBN: 113744830X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 352
Book Description
The recent financial crisis has generated many structural changes within the economy. Many issues are ongoing, and the question of how to recover from the crisis, and how to avoid another one, are continually addressed by scholars and practitioners everywhere. Where there is much discussion within academic and practitioner circles, there is not always adequate interaction between these schools of research. This book provides a thorough overview of the recent financial crisis from the perspective of both industry practitioners and academics specialising in the area. The first part provides practitioner insight on the crisis, and explores the causes and effects and of the recession, European public financing, ECB monetary policy and the Euro, the repression of financial markets, and financial stability. Part two focuses on the case of Greece, as a country still heavily impacted by the crisis, which has undergone various unorthodox policies imposed by the IMF, the ECB the EU. The third part provides insight from researchers and academics, covering an array of Economic theories and revealing new economics architectures available for the future. With informed views from both financial industry practitioners and academics, this book discusses current issues and implementable solutions for a faster post-crisis recovery.
Author: Elena-Simina Tănăsescu Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1351723510 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 233
Book Description
Exploring the balanced budget rule as an economic standard and as a legal principle, this book explains the context and content of the balanced budget rule and presents a critical appraisal of its impact on legal systems, political institutions and social values, and particularly an evaluation of its constitutionalization in the European and national legal systems. Examining a range of perspectives on the balanced budget rule as a legal principle, a series of chapters investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of the balanced budget rule. The book considers the impact this may have on the separation of powers within the state, on democratic decision-making, on the European social model and on the protection of fundamental social rights within the European Union. It suggests that this impact goes beyond the ethical issue of the public debt considered as a burden placed on future generations, and beyond injunctions imposed by international financial institutions on national public finances. The transfiguration of fiscal discipline from an economic requirement into a legal rule demanding a balanced budget embodies a challenge to the political nature of the budgetary process while creating the flexibility needed in order to further fiscal federalism within the European Union. This book argues that the balanced budget rule is nothing more than it has always been: an instrument for devising public policies in a rational manner, a tool for conceiving qualitative choices regarding the well-being of citizens.
Author: National Intelligence Council Publisher: Cosimo Reports ISBN: 9781646794973 Category : Languages : en Pages : 158
Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby
Author: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby
Author: Ichiro Fukunaga
Author: Mr.Nicolas End
Author: John B. Taylor
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Author: Richard Barwell
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: Dimitrios D. Thomakos
Author: Elena-Simina Tănăsescu
Author: National Intelligence Council