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Superforecasting

Superforecasting PDF Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting PDF Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Migration with Imperfect Information

Migration with Imperfect Information PDF Author: Joyce Marilyn Richmond Cooper
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Labor mobility
Languages : en
Pages : 222

Book Description


Artificial Intelligence-Based Forecasting and Analytic Techniques for Environment and Economics Management

Artificial Intelligence-Based Forecasting and Analytic Techniques for Environment and Economics Management PDF Author: Wendong Yang
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2832504728
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 328

Book Description


The Mathematics of the Uncertain

The Mathematics of the Uncertain PDF Author: Eduardo Gil
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319738488
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 897

Book Description
This book is a tribute to Professor Pedro Gil, who created the Department of Statistics, OR and TM at the University of Oviedo, and a former President of the Spanish Society of Statistics and OR (SEIO). In more than eighty original contributions, it illustrates the extent to which Mathematics can help manage uncertainty, a factor that is inherent to real life. Today it goes without saying that, in order to model experiments and systems and to analyze related outcomes and data, it is necessary to consider formal ideas and develop scientific approaches and techniques for dealing with uncertainty. Mathematics is crucial in this endeavor, as this book demonstrates. As Professor Pedro Gil highlighted twenty years ago, there are several well-known mathematical branches for this purpose, including Mathematics of chance (Probability and Statistics), Mathematics of communication (Information Theory), and Mathematics of imprecision (Fuzzy Sets Theory and others). These branches often intertwine, since different sources of uncertainty can coexist, and they are not exhaustive. While most of the papers presented here address the three aforementioned fields, some hail from other Mathematical disciplines such as Operations Research; others, in turn, put the spotlight on real-world studies and applications. The intended audience of this book is mainly statisticians, mathematicians and computer scientists, but practitioners in these areas will certainly also find the book a very interesting read.

FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES

FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES PDF Author: PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44

Book Description


Measurement Theory and Applications for the Social Sciences

Measurement Theory and Applications for the Social Sciences PDF Author: Deborah L. Bandalos
Publisher: Guilford Publications
ISBN: 1462532136
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 686

Book Description
Which types of validity evidence should be considered when determining whether a scale is appropriate for a given measurement situation? What about reliability evidence? Using clear explanations illustrated by examples from across the social and behavioral sciences, this engaging text prepares students to make effective decisions about the selection, administration, scoring, interpretation, and development of measurement instruments. Coverage includes the essential measurement topics of scale development, item writing and analysis, and reliability and validity, as well as more advanced topics such as exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, item response theory, diagnostic classification models, test bias and fairness, standard setting, and equating. End-of-chapter exercises (with answers) emphasize both computations and conceptual understanding to encourage readers to think critically about the material. ÿ

Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging

Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging PDF Author: Francesco Ravazzolo
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN: 9051709145
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 198

Book Description
Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this thesis we focus on forecasting financial time series using model averaging schemes as a way to produce optimal forecasts. We derive and discuss in simulation exercises and empirical applications model averaging techniques that can reproduce stylized facts of financial time series, such as low predictability and time-varying patterns. We emphasize that model averaging is not a "magic" methodology which solves a priori problems of poorly forecasting. Averaging techniques have an essential requirement: individual models have to fit data. In the first section we provide a general outline of the thesis and its contributions to previ ous research. In Chapter 2 we focus on the use of time varying model weight combinations. In Chapter 3, we extend the analysis in the previous chapter to a new Bayesian averaging scheme that models structural instability carefully. In Chapter 4 we focus on forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. In Chapter 5 we attempt to shed more light on forecasting performance of stochastic day-ahead price models. We examine six stochastic price models to forecast day-ahead prices of the two most active power exchanges in the world: the Nordic Power Exchange and the Amsterdam Power Exchange. Three of these forecasting models include weather forecasts. To sum up, the research finds an increase of forecasting power of financial time series when parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and optimal decision making are included.

Review of Austrian Economics, Volume 10

Review of Austrian Economics, Volume 10 PDF Author: Murray Rothbard
Publisher: Ludwig von Mises Institute
ISBN: 1610161696
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 298

Book Description


Knowledge, Scale and Transactions in the Theory of the Firm

Knowledge, Scale and Transactions in the Theory of the Firm PDF Author: Mario Morroni
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110732100X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 241

Book Description
Firms in market economies vary enormously in size, nature and competitiveness. In this important contribution to the literature on the theory of the firm, Mario Morroni provides a fresh analytical framework which improves our understanding of the causes of this diversity in organisational design and performance. The relations between internal and external basic conditions, decision-making mechanisms and organisational co-ordination are addressed, as are the circumstances in which capabilities, transactions and scale-scope considerations interact. With the emergence of the knowledge-based economy and the increasing pressure of global competition, the development of capabilities is acquiring ever greater importance in boosting competitiveness. Morroni shows that long-term relational agreements enhance learning processes and offer powerful tools for improving competitiveness in a context of conflicting interests, incomplete knowledge and uncertainty.

The Commitments of Traders Bible

The Commitments of Traders Bible PDF Author: Stephen Briese
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470267917
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309

Book Description
Regardless of your trading methods, and no matter what markets you’re involved in, there is a Commitments of Traders (COT) report that you should be reviewing every week. Nobody understands this better than Stephen Briese, an industry-leading expert on COT data. And now, with The Commitments of Traders Bible, Briese reveals how to use the predictive power of COT data—and accurately interpret it—in order to analyze market movements and achieve investment success.