Impact of COVID-19 on the Egyptian economy: Economic sectors, jobs, and households PDF Download

Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages :

View

Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.

Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 11

View

Book Description
Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors.

Author: Amare, Mulubrhan
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 43

View

Book Description
This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.

Author: Caroline Krafft
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192847910
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 415

View

Book Description
The Egyptian economy has faced many challenges in the decade since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. Not only was job creation anaemic from 2012 to 2018, but new jobs were also of low-quality, characterized by informality and vulnerability to economic shocks. These challenges pushed many in Egypt, especially the most vulnerable, into a more precarious labor market situation. Then, in the midst of economic recovery brought on by tough reform measures adopted in 2016 and 2017, the country was hit by the widespread disruption of a global pandemic. This book examines the plight of Egypt's most vulnerable groups by focusing on the intersection of gender and economic vulnerability in the labor market. With this emphasis on vulnerability and a lens that is sensitive to gender differences and inequities, the contributors to this volume use data from the most recent wave of a unique longitudinal survey to illuminate different aspects of Egyptians' lives. The aspects they explore include labor supply behavior, the ability to access good quality and well-paying jobs, the evolution of wages and wage inequality, the school-to-work transition of youth, the decline in public sector employment, international and internal migration, the situation of rural women, access to social protection, food security, vulnerability to shocks and coping mechanisms, health status, and access to health care services. These analyses are prescient in understanding the axes of vulnerability in Egyptian society that became all too salient during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Author: ElKadhi, Zouhair
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 13

View

Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (-49.0 percent) and agriculture (-16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic. Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.

Author: Thurlow, James
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 14

View

Book Description
This note presents the results of an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system. Nine agriculture-related public investments are considered, including targeting public spending to expand farm production, e.g., irrigation improvements, input subsidies, agricultural research, and extension, and to promote downstream agro-processing and marketing. The outcome indicators considered are economic (GDP) growth, incomes of the poor, job creation, and dietary diversity. IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used for the evaluation because it captures linkages between sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and measures changes within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA) module that tracks investment impacts and costs over time. The ranked results of the public investment options considered, summarized in the table here, can help prioritize agri-food system investments for post-COVID-19 recovery.

Author: Anis Ben Brik
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000653692
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 208

View

Book Description
This book critically reflects on the responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by exploring the impact and possible future outcomes in a region already struggling with the effects of a decade of uprisings, failed or difficult political transitions, state collapses, civil war and international conflict. International scholars offer a comprehensive treatment of today's major societal issues and provide a unique, broadly comparative view on public policy responses in the MENA region. Addressing the implications and public policy responses to the crisis, they bring a critical perspective to the emerging challenges of evidence-based policy making; the locus of authority in transnational issues; the nature of governance; and the role of government and implications for civil society. Tackling the psychology, sociology, education, law, and public policy issues related to the social and economic implications of the COVID 19 pandemic, this book will be of interest to scholars and students alike.

Author: Abdrabo, Amal Adel
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1799889750
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 344

View

Book Description
For the first time in modern human history, the response to a global health crisis was required among all countries no matter their wealth, size, or economic status. Every country was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and as it surged across the world, it took many lives with it. Thus, it is essential to study the ability of human societies to cope with the changes caused by pandemics. Societal Resilience and Response to Contagious Diseases and Pandemics adopts and maintains an interdisciplinary-transdisciplinary approach to investigating societal resilience. This book builds upon different insights of what has already been done for humanity to survive the spread of a deadly pandemic. Covering topics such as the role of healthcare professionals, political economy, and consumption culture, it is an essential resource for professionals, business leaders, policymakers, professors, graduate students, researchers, and academicians.

Author: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN: 0896293998
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124

View

Book Description
The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?

Author: Pettinger, Richard
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1668441039
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 365

View

Book Description
Digital solutions are sufficiently versatile and agile to shape business processes and enterprise architecture, answer the COVID-19 crisis, solve climate change, temper political conflict, generate new employment operating models, and solve health issues. These solutions benefit businesses as an integral part of the economy and society and therefore must be studied further to ensure they are utilized appropriately. The Handbook of Research on Digitalization Solutions for Social and Economic Needs introduces the agile operating model that has triggered digital transformation and the plethora of ways it has become of practical use recently. The book also argues the business rationale of digitalization. Covering key topics such as innovation, sustainability, and business transformation, this major reference work is ideal for business owners, managers, computer scientists, industry professionals, researchers, scholars, academicians, librarians, policymakers, practitioners, educators, and students.