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Author: V. Pisarenko Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9048191718 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 199
Book Description
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.
Author: V. Pisarenko Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9048191718 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 199
Book Description
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.
Author: Jayakrishnan Nair Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1009062964 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 266
Book Description
Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.
Author: V.F. Pisarenko Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3319014544 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
The study of disaster statistics and disaster occurrence is a complicated interdisciplinary field involving the interplay of new theoretical findings from several scientific fields like mathematics, physics, and computer science. Statistical studies on the mode of occurrence of natural disasters largely rely on fundamental findings in the statistics of rare events, which were derived in the 20th century. With regard to natural disasters, it is not so much the fact that the importance of this problem for mankind was recognized during the last third of the 20th century - the myths one encounters in ancient civilizations show that the problem of disasters has always been recognized - rather, it is the fact that mankind now possesses the necessary theoretical and practical tools to effectively study natural disasters, which in turn supports effective, major practical measures to minimize their impact. All the above factors have resulted in considerable progress in natural disaster research. Substantial accrued material on natural disasters and the use of advanced recording techniques have opened new doors for empirical analysis. However, despite the considerable progress made, the situation is still far from ideal. Sufficiently complete catalogs of events are still not available for many types of disasters, and the methodological and even terminological bases of research need to be further developed and standardized. The present monograph summarizes recent advances in the field of disaster statistics, primarily focusing on the occurrence of disasters that can be described by distributions with heavy tails. These disasters typically occur on a very broad range of scales, the rare greatest events being capable of causing losses comparable to the total losses of all smaller disasters of the same type. Audience: This SpringerBrief will be a valuable resource for those working in the fields of natural disaster research, risk assessment and loss mitigation at regional and federal governing bodies and in the insurance business, as well as for a broad range of readers interested in problems concerning natural disasters and their effects on human life.
Author: Michele Leonardo Bianchi Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9813276215 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 598
Book Description
The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.
Author: Lester C. Hunt Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 1849801991 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 849
Book Description
As an essential component for economic growth, energy has a significant impact on the global economy. The need to meet growing energy demand has prompted cutting-edge innovation in clean technology in an attempt to realise environmental and cost objectives, whilst ensuring the security of energy supply. This Handbook offers a comprehensive review of the economics of energy, including contributions from a distinguished array of international specialists. It provides a thorough discussion of the major research issues in this topical field of economics. Themes addressed include the theory of energy supply, demand and policy, empirical modelling of energy demand, holistic energy models, an analysis of coal, gas, electricity, oil and the markets within which they operate, and a discussion of the current key energy policy issues. The topics of pricing, transmission, regulation, security, energy efficiency, new technologies and climate change are also discussed. The International Handbook on the Economics of Energy presents a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art research making it an indispensable reference for researchers, advanced students, practitioners and policy-makers alike.
Author: Ming Li Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 100081789X Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 297
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive theory of mono- and multi-fractal traffic, including the basics of long-range dependent time series and 1/f noise, ergodicity and predictability of traffic, traffic modeling and simulation, stationarity tests of traffic, traffic measurement and the anomaly detection of traffic in communications networks. Proving that mono-fractal LRD time series is ergodic, the book exhibits that LRD traffic is stationary. The author shows that the stationarity of multi-fractal traffic relies on observation time scales, and proposes multi-fractional generalized Cauchy processes and modified multi-fractional Gaussian noise. The book also establishes a set of guidelines for determining the record length of traffic in measurement. Moreover, it presents an approach of traffic simulation, as well as the anomaly detection of traffic under distributed-denial-of service attacks. Scholars and graduates studying network traffic in computer science will find the book beneficial.
Author: Léna Soler Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9400727585 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 377
Book Description
Mature sciences have been long been characterized in terms of the “successfulness”, “reliability” or “trustworthiness” of their theoretical, experimental or technical accomplishments. Today many philosophers of science talk of “robustness”, often without specifying in a precise way the meaning of this term. This lack of clarity is the cause of frequent misunderstandings, since all these notions, and that of robustness in particular, are connected to fundamental issues, which concern nothing less than the very nature of science and its specificity with respect to other human practices, the nature of rationality and of scientific progress; and science’s claim to be a truth-conducive activity. This book offers for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the problem of robustness, and in general, that of the reliability of science, based on several detailed case studies and on philosophical essays inspired by the so-called practical turn in philosophy of science.
Author: Marat Ibragimov Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319168770 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 131
Book Description
This book focuses on general frameworks for modeling heavy-tailed distributions in economics, finance, econometrics, statistics, risk management and insurance. A central theme is that of (non-)robustness, i.e., the fact that the presence of heavy tails can either reinforce or reverse the implications of a number of models in these fields, depending on the degree of heavy-tailed ness. These results motivate the development and applications of robust inference approaches under heavy tails, heterogeneity and dependence in observations. Several recently developed robust inference approaches are discussed and illustrated, together with applications.
Author: Dipak K. Dey Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1498701310 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 538
Book Description
Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subje
Author: V. Pisarenko
Author: V. Pisarenko
Author: Jayakrishnan Nair
Author: V.F. Pisarenko
Author: Michele Leonardo Bianchi
Author: Lester C. Hunt
Author: Ming Li
Author: Léna Soler
Author: Marat Ibragimov
Author: Roger M. Cooke
Author: Dipak K. Dey