Global Trends 2040 PDF Download

Author: Giulio Sapelli
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319156241
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 83

View

Book Description
This book offers a fascinating overview of the challenges posed by the world’s new geostrategic order and likely future directions. It opens with an unconventional view of the Arab Spring, identifying its origins in the relative US withdrawal from the Middle East caused by both the need for military disengagement for economic reasons and the discovery of shale gas and tight oil in the heart of the North American continent. The rise in the geostrategic importance of Putin’s Russia is explored in this context. The implications of the worldwide economic crisis are analyzed in depth: the author’s interpretation is that the world is entering a phase of unstable growth generated by hyper financialization and deflation. Against this background, the book explores the US attempt to trigger growth through the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (based on the US-Australia military alliance) in restraining China’s advance, and the potential for Africa to become the driver of the world’s economic future if it can resist Chinese penetration and continue the nation-building process.

Author: Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 0815725159
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 369

View

Book Description
India faces a defining period. Its status as a global power is not only recognized but increasingly institutionalized, even as geopolitical shifts create both opportunities and challenges. With critical interests in almost every multilateral regime and vital stakes in emerging ones, India has no choice but to influence the evolving multilateral order. If India seeks to affect the multilateral order, how will it do so? In the past, it had little choice but to be content with rule taking—adhering to existing international norms and institutions. Will it now focus on rule breaking—challenging the present order primarily for effect and seeking greater accommodation in existing institutions? Or will it focus on rule shaping—contributing in partnership with others to shape emerging norms and regimes, particularly on energy, food, climate, oceans, and cyber security? And how do India's troubled neighborhood, complex domestic politics, and limited capacity inhibit its rule-shaping ability? Despite limitations, India increasingly has the ideas, people, and tools to shape the global order—in the words of Jawaharlal Nehru, "not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially." Will India emerge as one of the shapers of the emerging international order? This volume seeks to answer that question.

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

View

Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: Oliver Stuenkel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509504583
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 266

View

Book Description
With the United States' superpower status rivalled by a rising China and emerging powers like India and Brazil playing a growing role in international affairs, the global balance of power is shifting. But what does this mean for the future of the international order? Will China dominate the 21st Century? Will the so-called BRICS prove to be a disruptive force in global affairs? Are we headed towards a world marked by frequent strife, or will the end of Western dominance make the world more peaceful? In this provocative new book, Oliver Stuenkel argues that our understanding of global order and predictions about its future are limited because we seek to imagine the post-Western world from a parochial Western-centric perspective. Such a view is increasingly inadequate in a world where a billions of people regard Western rule as a temporary aberration, and the rise of Asia as a return to normalcy. In reality, China and other rising powers that elude the simplistic extremes of either confronting or joining existing order are quietly building a "parallel order" which complements today's international institutions and increases rising powers' autonomy. Combining accessibility with expert sensitivity to the complexities of the global shift of power, Stuenkel's vision of a post-Western world will be core reading for students and scholars of contemporary international affairs, as well as anyone interested in the future of global politics. "A fascinating interpretation of our understanding of politics and global affairs, which demonstrates the evolving nature of power today. Oliver Stuenkel presents a compelling argument - not just about the "Rise of the Rest", but also the overlooked power and influence of the non-Western world. Highly engaging and instructive." Dr Shashi Tharoor, India’s Minister of State for External Affairs (2009-10) "Oliver Stuenkel is one of the best new voices in the field of international politics. In Post-Western World, he explores the primary challenges of the global order and critiques the parochial, Eurocentric vision which conforms to international power structures. This book is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand what a multipolar world order would look like and how it might be effectively realized." Celso Amorim, Brazil’s Minister of External Relations (1993-5, 2003-11) and Minister of Defence (2011-15)

Author: Augusto Lopez-Claros
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108476961
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 561

View

Book Description
Identifies the major weaknesses in the current United Nations system and proposes fundamental reforms to address each. This title is also available as Open Access.

Author: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (U.S.)
Publisher: Government Printing Office
ISBN: 0160920639
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 231

View

Book Description
NIC 2008-003. November 2008. Global Trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. The primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action.

Author: David Brian Dewitt
Publisher: Oxford University Press Canada
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 446

View

Book Description
The end of the Cold War era has not brought greater security to the world community. Although the likelihood of a global strategic nuclear war has been reduced significantly, we have already witnessed the impact of other challenges to international peace. As the Gulf War of 1991 demonstrated, regional conflicts can expand, adopting the methods and means of the earlier superpower confrontation. Recent events in the Horn of Africa, the Balkans, and Southeast Asia have revealed the continuing power of historic ethnic, religious, and national rivalries and the seeming inability of the international community to find effective solutions. At the same time, modern weapons and communications technologies, demographic changes and environmental degradation, vast disparities in wealth, and the globalization of both economic activity and Western culture pose enormous challenges. Are the international institutions with which we have lived since the end of the Second World War equipped to handle these problems? Written by international authorities in a wide range of disciplines, the essays in this text examine what is known, what must be determined, and what might be done with respect to these profound and urgent issues.

Author: Gregory Shaffer
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110885849X
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 345

View

Book Description
Victorious after World War II and the Cold War, the United States and its allies largely wrote the rules for international trade and investment. Yet, by 2020, it was the United States that became the great disrupter – disenchanted with the rules' constraints. Paradoxically, China, India, Brazil, and other emerging economies became stakeholders in and, at times, defenders of economic globalization and the rules regulating it. Emerging Powers and the World Trading System explains how this came to be and addresses the micropolitics of trade law – what has been developing under the surface of the business of trade through the practice of law, which has broad macro implications. This book provides a necessary complement to political and economic accounts for understanding why, at a time of hegemonic transition where economic security and geopolitics assume greater roles, the United States challenged, and emerging powers became defenders, of the legal order that the United States created.

Author: Parag Khanna
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588366766
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 498

View

Book Description
Grand explanations of how to understand the complex twenty-first-century world have all fallen short–until now. In The Second World, the brilliant young scholar Parag Khanna takes readers on a thrilling global tour, one that shows how America’s dominant moment has been suddenly replaced by a geopolitical marketplace wherein the European Union and China compete with the United States to shape world order on their own terms. This contest is hottest and most decisive in the Second World: pivotal regions in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and East Asia. Khanna explores the evolution of geopolitics through the recent histories of such underreported, fascinating, and complicated countries as Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Colombia, Libya, Vietnam, and Malaysia–nations whose resources will ultimately determine the fate of the three superpowers, but whose futures are perennially uncertain as they struggle to rise into the first world or avoid falling into the third. Informed, witty, and armed with a traveler’s intuition for blending into diverse cultures, Khanna mixes copious research with deep reportage to remake the map of the world. He depicts second-world societies from the inside out, observing how globalization divides them into winners and losers along political, economic, and cultural lines–and shows how China, Europe, and America use their unique imperial gravities to pull the second-world countries into their orbits. Along the way, Khanna also explains how Arabism and Islamism compete for the Arab soul, reveals how Iran and Saudi Arabia play the superpowers against one another, unmasks Singapore’s inspirational role in East Asia, and psychoanalyzes the second-world leaders whose decisions are reshaping the balance of power. He captures the most elusive formula in international affairs: how to think like a country. In the twenty-first century, globalization is the main battlefield of geopolitics, and America itself runs the risk of descending into the second world if it does not renew itself and redefine its role in the world. Comparable in scope and boldness to Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man and Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Parag Khanna’s The Second World will be the definitive guide to world politics for years to come. “A savvy, streetwise primer on dozens of individual countries that adds up to a coherent theory of global politics.” –Robert D. Kaplan, author of Eastward to Tartary and Warrior Politics “A panoramic overview that boldly addresses the dilemmas of the world that our next president will confront.” –Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security advisor "Parag Khanna's fascinating book takes us on an epic journey around the multipolar world, elegantly combining historical analysis, political theory, and eye-witness reports to shed light on the battle for primacy between the world's new empires." –Mark Leonard, Executive Director, European Council on Foreign Relations "Khanna, a widely recognized expert on global politics, offers an study of the 21st century's emerging "geopolitical marketplace" dominated by three "first world" superpowers, the U.S., Europe and China... The final pages of his book warn eloquently of the risks of imperial overstretch combined with declining economic dominance and deteriorating quality of life. By themselves those pages are worth the price of a book that from beginning to end inspires reflection." –Publishers Weekly

Author: Thomas Hale
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0745670105
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 223

View

Book Description
The issues that increasingly dominate the 21st century cannot be solved by any single country acting alone, no matter how powerful. To manage the global economy, prevent runaway environmental destruction, reign in nuclear proliferation, or confront other global challenges, we must cooperate. But at the same time, our tools for global policymaking - chiefly state-to-state negotiations over treaties and international institutions - have broken down. The result is gridlock, which manifests across areas via a number of common mechanisms. The rise of new powers representing a more diverse array of interests makes agreement more difficult. The problems themselves have also grown harder as global policy issues penetrate ever more deeply into core domestic concerns. Existing institutions, created for a different world, also lock-in pathological decision-making procedures and render the field ever more complex. All of these processes - in part a function of previous, successful efforts at cooperation - have led global cooperation to fail us even as we need it most. Ranging over the main areas of global concern, from security to the global economy and the environment, this book examines these mechanisms of gridlock and pathways beyond them. It is written in a highly accessible way, making it relevant not only to students of politics and international relations but also to a wider general readership.