Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470387955
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
Book Description
An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike" —Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions." —Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.
The Failure of Risk Management
Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470387955
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
Book Description
An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike" —Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions." —Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470387955
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
Book Description
An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike" —Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions." —Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.
The Failure of Risk Management
Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
ISBN: 047048344X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 305
Book Description
An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike" —Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions." —Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
ISBN: 047048344X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 305
Book Description
An essential guide to the calibrated risk analysis approach The Failure of Risk Management takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field. Douglas W. Hubbard (Glen Ellyn, IL) is the inventor of Applied Information Economics (AIE) and the author of Wiley's How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (978-0-470-11012-6), the #1 bestseller in business math on Amazon. He has applied innovative risk assessment and risk management methods in government and corporations since 1994. "Doug Hubbard, a recognized expert among experts in the field of risk management, covers the entire spectrum of risk management in this invaluable guide. There are specific value-added take aways in each chapter that are sure to enrich all readers including IT, business management, students, and academics alike" —Peter Julian, former chief-information officer of the New York Metro Transit Authority. President of Alliance Group consulting "In his trademark style, Doug asks the tough questions on risk management. A must-read not only for analysts, but also for the executive who is making critical business decisions." —Jim Franklin, VP Enterprise Performance Management and General Manager, Crystal Ball Global Business Unit, Oracle Corporation.
How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk
Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119085292
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
Book Description
A ground shaking exposé on the failure of popular cyber risk management methods How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk exposes the shortcomings of current "risk management" practices, and offers a series of improvement techniques that help you fill the holes and ramp up security. In his bestselling book How to Measure Anything, author Douglas W. Hubbard opened the business world's eyes to the critical need for better measurement. This book expands upon that premise and draws from The Failure of Risk Management to sound the alarm in the cybersecurity realm. Some of the field's premier risk management approaches actually create more risk than they mitigate, and questionable methods have been duplicated across industries and embedded in the products accepted as gospel. This book sheds light on these blatant risks, and provides alternate techniques that can help improve your current situation. You'll also learn which approaches are too risky to save, and are actually more damaging than a total lack of any security. Dangerous risk management methods abound; there is no industry more critically in need of solutions than cybersecurity. This book provides solutions where they exist, and advises when to change tracks entirely. Discover the shortcomings of cybersecurity's "best practices" Learn which risk management approaches actually create risk Improve your current practices with practical alterations Learn which methods are beyond saving, and worse than doing nothing Insightful and enlightening, this book will inspire a closer examination of your company's own risk management practices in the context of cybersecurity. The end goal is airtight data protection, so finding cracks in the vault is a positive thing—as long as you get there before the bad guys do. How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk is your guide to more robust protection through better quantitative processes, approaches, and techniques.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119085292
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
Book Description
A ground shaking exposé on the failure of popular cyber risk management methods How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk exposes the shortcomings of current "risk management" practices, and offers a series of improvement techniques that help you fill the holes and ramp up security. In his bestselling book How to Measure Anything, author Douglas W. Hubbard opened the business world's eyes to the critical need for better measurement. This book expands upon that premise and draws from The Failure of Risk Management to sound the alarm in the cybersecurity realm. Some of the field's premier risk management approaches actually create more risk than they mitigate, and questionable methods have been duplicated across industries and embedded in the products accepted as gospel. This book sheds light on these blatant risks, and provides alternate techniques that can help improve your current situation. You'll also learn which approaches are too risky to save, and are actually more damaging than a total lack of any security. Dangerous risk management methods abound; there is no industry more critically in need of solutions than cybersecurity. This book provides solutions where they exist, and advises when to change tracks entirely. Discover the shortcomings of cybersecurity's "best practices" Learn which risk management approaches actually create risk Improve your current practices with practical alterations Learn which methods are beyond saving, and worse than doing nothing Insightful and enlightening, this book will inspire a closer examination of your company's own risk management practices in the context of cybersecurity. The end goal is airtight data protection, so finding cracks in the vault is a positive thing—as long as you get there before the bad guys do. How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk is your guide to more robust protection through better quantitative processes, approaches, and techniques.
Identifying and Managing Project Risk
Author: Tom Kendrick
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814413412
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 370
Book Description
Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814413412
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 370
Book Description
Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.
Project Risk Management
Author: John Ayers
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781732974449
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 380
Book Description
The book is about RBPS (Risk Based Problem Solving) and RBDM (Risk Based Decision Making). Every project is subjected to the known risks and the unknown risks. Known risks are the four constraints of a project. The four constraints are; scope; schedule; cost; and quality. Unknown risks are the uncertainties and variances that surround every project. The book discusses in detail, with examples and risk stories to support the points made in the book, PM, RM, EVM, and Subcontract Management (SM). Understanding these four disciplines and how to incorporate them into a project, is essential to effective RBPS and RBDM. Project Management knowledge and skills are necessary to manage the known risks. Risk Management knowledge and skills are essential to identifying, assessing and mitigating unknown risks. Earned Value Management is important to tracking and controlling risk mitigation plans. Many companies outsource most of their work scope to subcontractors, so having Subcontract Management knowledge and skills is key to mitigating subcontract risks. The future of work is also discussed in detail. Future work will be projectized more. Working remotely is a trend that is increasing. Project Managers will have a more difficult problem in the future managing a diverse workforce of on-site, remote, and part-time workers. You need to be aware of future trends.The book is structured in a logical sequence and is easy to read. Step by step processes are presented in a logical way with practical examples to help you understand the process. Most of the methods and techniques discussed in the book are based on my DOD experience. However, these techniques also apply to the IT, and Construction Industries.
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781732974449
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 380
Book Description
The book is about RBPS (Risk Based Problem Solving) and RBDM (Risk Based Decision Making). Every project is subjected to the known risks and the unknown risks. Known risks are the four constraints of a project. The four constraints are; scope; schedule; cost; and quality. Unknown risks are the uncertainties and variances that surround every project. The book discusses in detail, with examples and risk stories to support the points made in the book, PM, RM, EVM, and Subcontract Management (SM). Understanding these four disciplines and how to incorporate them into a project, is essential to effective RBPS and RBDM. Project Management knowledge and skills are necessary to manage the known risks. Risk Management knowledge and skills are essential to identifying, assessing and mitigating unknown risks. Earned Value Management is important to tracking and controlling risk mitigation plans. Many companies outsource most of their work scope to subcontractors, so having Subcontract Management knowledge and skills is key to mitigating subcontract risks. The future of work is also discussed in detail. Future work will be projectized more. Working remotely is a trend that is increasing. Project Managers will have a more difficult problem in the future managing a diverse workforce of on-site, remote, and part-time workers. You need to be aware of future trends.The book is structured in a logical sequence and is easy to read. Step by step processes are presented in a logical way with practical examples to help you understand the process. Most of the methods and techniques discussed in the book are based on my DOD experience. However, these techniques also apply to the IT, and Construction Industries.
Dam Failure Mechanisms and Risk Assessment
Author: Limin Zhang
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118558510
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 496
Book Description
This book integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures • Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases • Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118558510
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 496
Book Description
This book integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures • Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases • Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure
Risk Management for Enterprises and Individuals
Author: Baranoff
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781936126187
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781936126187
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
How to Measure Anything
Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470625678
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
Book Description
Now updated with new research and even more intuitive explanations, a demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI. Adds even more intuitive explanations of powerful measurement methods and shows how they can be applied to areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles" Adds recent research, especially in regards to methods that seem like measurement, but are in fact a kind of "placebo effect" for management – and explains how to tell effective methods from management mythology Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard-creator of Applied Information Economics-How to Measure Anything, Second Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470625678
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
Book Description
Now updated with new research and even more intuitive explanations, a demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI. Adds even more intuitive explanations of powerful measurement methods and shows how they can be applied to areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles" Adds recent research, especially in regards to methods that seem like measurement, but are in fact a kind of "placebo effect" for management – and explains how to tell effective methods from management mythology Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard-creator of Applied Information Economics-How to Measure Anything, Second Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.
Risk Management for IT Projects
Author: Bennet Lientz
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136368043
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Book Description
The rate of failure of IT projects has remained little changed in survey after survey over the past 15-20 years—over 40-50%. This has happened in spite of new technology, innovative methods and tools, and different management methods. Why does this happen? Why can’t the situation be better? One reason is that many think of each IT effort as unique. In reality many IT projects are very similar at a high, strategic level. Where they differ is in the people and exact events—the detail. If you read the literature or have been in information systems or IT for some time, you have seen the same reasons for failure and the same problems and issues recur again and again. In this book IT Management experts Ben Lientz and Lee Larssen show you how to identify and track the recurring issues leading to failure in IT projects and provide a proven, modern method for addressing them. By following the recommendations in this books readers can significantly reduce the risk of IT failures and increase the rate of success. Benefits of using this approach: • Issues are identified earlier—giving more time for solution and action. • Issues are resolved more consistently since the approach tracks on their repetition. • You get an early warning of problems in IT work—before the budget or schedule fall apart. • Management tends to have more realistic expectations with an awareness of issues. • Users and managers have greater confidence in IT due to the improved handling of issues. • Since the number of issues tends to stabilize in an organization, the IT organization and management get better at detecting, preventing, and dealing with issues over time—cumulative improvement. • Giving attention to issues make users more realistic in their requests and acts to deter requirement changes and scope creep.
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136368043
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Book Description
The rate of failure of IT projects has remained little changed in survey after survey over the past 15-20 years—over 40-50%. This has happened in spite of new technology, innovative methods and tools, and different management methods. Why does this happen? Why can’t the situation be better? One reason is that many think of each IT effort as unique. In reality many IT projects are very similar at a high, strategic level. Where they differ is in the people and exact events—the detail. If you read the literature or have been in information systems or IT for some time, you have seen the same reasons for failure and the same problems and issues recur again and again. In this book IT Management experts Ben Lientz and Lee Larssen show you how to identify and track the recurring issues leading to failure in IT projects and provide a proven, modern method for addressing them. By following the recommendations in this books readers can significantly reduce the risk of IT failures and increase the rate of success. Benefits of using this approach: • Issues are identified earlier—giving more time for solution and action. • Issues are resolved more consistently since the approach tracks on their repetition. • You get an early warning of problems in IT work—before the budget or schedule fall apart. • Management tends to have more realistic expectations with an awareness of issues. • Users and managers have greater confidence in IT due to the improved handling of issues. • Since the number of issues tends to stabilize in an organization, the IT organization and management get better at detecting, preventing, and dealing with issues over time—cumulative improvement. • Giving attention to issues make users more realistic in their requests and acts to deter requirement changes and scope creep.
Risk-Based Reliability Analysis and Generic Principles for Risk Reduction
Author: Michael T. Todinov
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080467555
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 396
Book Description
This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk. An important theme in the book is the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time. Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable. - Offers a shift in the existing paradigm for conducting reliability analyses - Covers risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reducing risk - Provides a new measure of risk based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure as well as the basic principles for risk-based design - Incorporates fast algorithms for system reliability analysis and discrete-event simulators - Includes the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape expressed with a simple equation
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080467555
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 396
Book Description
This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk. An important theme in the book is the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time. Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable. - Offers a shift in the existing paradigm for conducting reliability analyses - Covers risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reducing risk - Provides a new measure of risk based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure as well as the basic principles for risk-based design - Incorporates fast algorithms for system reliability analysis and discrete-event simulators - Includes the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape expressed with a simple equation