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Author: Bryan Ding Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This thesis paper examines the causal effects of California Proposition 47, a criminal justice reform measure passed in 2014, on property crime rates in Los Angeles and other major cities in California. Proposition 47 aimed to reduce prison overcrowding by reclassifying certain nonviolent offenses as misdemeanors and reallocating resources to education, mental health, and drug treatment programs. Existing research on Proposition 47's impact on property crime rates has yielded mixed results, primarily due to limitations inherent in observational studies. To overcome these limitations, this study employs a causal inference approach, especially focusing on difference in difference and synthetic control methods. A general reweighting approach to causal inference with time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data from Chad Hazlet and Yiqing Xu is used too, including methods such as mean-balancing and kernel-balancing. We analyzed data from the FBI crime database spanning 11 years and covering 23 cities, focusing on property crimes such as burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. The synthetic control method allows for the estimation of the policy intervention's effect by creating a synthetic control group that closely matches the characteristics of the treated group, addressing confounding factors. The study finds evidence that Propo- sition 47 increased property crime in Los Angeles and multiple major cities in California, supported by the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) calculations and graphical representations. However, these conclusions rely on the assumptions made in the causal inference framework. Additionally, other studies indicate that Proposition 47 achieved de- carceration and reduced racial prejudices within the judicial system, emphasizing the need to consider broader social impacts. The results of this study should be interpreted with caution, and further exploration of Proposition 47's long-term effects on the criminal justice system, communities, and individuals is necessary.
Author: Bryan Ding Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This thesis paper examines the causal effects of California Proposition 47, a criminal justice reform measure passed in 2014, on property crime rates in Los Angeles and other major cities in California. Proposition 47 aimed to reduce prison overcrowding by reclassifying certain nonviolent offenses as misdemeanors and reallocating resources to education, mental health, and drug treatment programs. Existing research on Proposition 47's impact on property crime rates has yielded mixed results, primarily due to limitations inherent in observational studies. To overcome these limitations, this study employs a causal inference approach, especially focusing on difference in difference and synthetic control methods. A general reweighting approach to causal inference with time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data from Chad Hazlet and Yiqing Xu is used too, including methods such as mean-balancing and kernel-balancing. We analyzed data from the FBI crime database spanning 11 years and covering 23 cities, focusing on property crimes such as burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. The synthetic control method allows for the estimation of the policy intervention's effect by creating a synthetic control group that closely matches the characteristics of the treated group, addressing confounding factors. The study finds evidence that Propo- sition 47 increased property crime in Los Angeles and multiple major cities in California, supported by the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) calculations and graphical representations. However, these conclusions rely on the assumptions made in the causal inference framework. Additionally, other studies indicate that Proposition 47 achieved de- carceration and reduced racial prejudices within the judicial system, emphasizing the need to consider broader social impacts. The results of this study should be interpreted with caution, and further exploration of Proposition 47's long-term effects on the criminal justice system, communities, and individuals is necessary.
Author: Patricio Domínguez Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
We evaluate whether California's state proposition 47 impacted state violent and property crime rates. Passed by the voters in November 2014, the proposition redefined many less serious property and drug offenses that in the past could be charged as either a felony or misdemeanor to straight misdemeanors. The proposition caused a sudden and sizable decline in county jail populations, a moderate decline in the state prison population, a decrease in arrests for property and drug offenses, and a wave of legal petitions filed for retroactive resentencing and reclassification of prior convictions. We make use of multiple strategies to estimate the effect of the proposition, including state-level synthetic cohort analysis, within-state event study estimates based on state-level monthly time series, and a cross-county analysis of changes in county-level crime rates that exploit heterogeneity in the effects of the proposition on local criminal justice practices. We find little evidence of an impact on violent crime rates in the state. Once changes in offense definitions and reporting practices in key agencies are accounted for, violent crime in California is roughly at pre-proposition levels and generally lower than the levels that existed in 2010 prior to a wave major reforms to the state's criminal justice system. While our analysis of violent crime rates yields a few significant point estimates (a decrease in murder for one method and an increase in robbery for another), these findings are highly sensitivity to the method used to generate a counterfactual comparison path. We find more consistent evidence of an impact on property crime, operating primarily through an effect on larceny theft. The estimates are sensitive to the method used to generate the counterfactual, with more than half of the relative increase in property crime (and for some estimates considerably more) driven by a decline in the counterfactual crime rate rather than increases for California for several of the estimators that we employ. Despite this sensitivity, there is evidence from all methods tried that property crime increased with, a ballpark summary of five to seven percent roughly consistent with the totality of our analysis. Similar to violent crime, California property crime rates remain at historically low levels.
Author: Stephanie Brooks Holliday Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Project imPACT is a reentry program designed by the City of Los Angeles Mayor's Office and funded through Proposition 47 funds by the California Board of State and Community Corrections. The program initially received funds in 2018 and was awarded additional funds in 2020 to continue and expand the program through February 15, 2023. Project imPACT provides employment, behavioral health, and legal services to individuals in four regions across Los Angeles, with the goal of improving employment outcomes as a way to reduce future criminal justice system involvement. The additional funding allowed the program to add a transition-age youth pilot and housing services support. The RAND Corporation and Harder+Company conducted a mixed methods process and outcome evaluation of Cohort 2. This report presents findings related to individuals served between June 2020 (when Cohort 2 began enrolling Fellows) through September 2022. The process evaluation focuses on the implementation of Project imPACT, and the outcome evaluation examines whether the program achieved expected short-term and intermediate outcomes. Fellows achieved several of the program goals through their work with the Project imPACT providers: About 52 percent of Fellows obtained employment and 53 percent of employed Fellows remained employed one year after starting the program. Of the 87 individuals who were in unstable housing settings when they entered the program, 64 percent had moved into a more stable setting by the time they exited the program. Only 22 enrolled Fellows were convicted for a new arrest after their enrollment.
Author: Sarah Hunter Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 91
Book Description
Proposition 47 is part of a sweeping series of criminal justice reforms passed in California over the last five years designed to reduce state prison overcrowding, focus criminal justice expenditures on violent and serious offenses, and increase investments in prevention and support programs. In September 2016, the Los Angeles County Chief Executive Office contracted with the RAND Corporation to conduct an independent operational and fiscal analysis of Proposition 47 as a follow-up review of preliminary reports by Los Angeles County’s Department of the Auditor-Controller. Our overall objective was to draw insights from Los Angeles County departments’ experiences with Proposition 47 to develop a set of recommendations for metrics and data management systems that Los Angeles County can use to track the operational and fiscal impacts of Proposition 47 and other legislative initiatives. We found that establishing performance metrics would help the county monitor the impact of Proposition 47 and similar initiatives. In addition, a database that protects individual privacy rights and identifies individuals and links data over time across the different county departments is needed.
Author: Alyssa Mooney Publisher: ISBN: 9780438778429 Category : Languages : en Pages : 81
Book Description
Disparate rates of felony drug arrests and convictions across race and geography have implications for inequalities in health and social outcomes linked to criminal justice exposure. California Proposition 47 (Prop 47), passed in 2014, reduced drug possession offenses classified as felonies or wobblers (with prosecutorial discretion to file felony or misdemeanor charges) to misdemeanors. This dissertation examines three effects of Prop 47: 1) whether racial/ethnic disparities in drug arrests declined; 2) whether eliminating prosecutorial discretion for charging drug possession as a felony or misdemeanor reduced geographic disparities in felony convictions; and 3) unintended consequences with regards to drug-related hospital visits. For objective 1: using data on all drug arrests made in California from 2011-2016, we compared the immediate and one year post-policy changes in racial disparities in drug arrests between Whites, Blacks, and Latinos, controlling for secular and seasonal trends. For objective 2: after propensity score matching arrests made in the year after the implementation of Prop 47 to similar arrests in the year prior to Prop 47, we used mixed models to estimate the change in county variance in the probability of felony conviction. For objective 3: Incorporating data on all drug-related hospital visits in California from 2011-2015 with drug arrests data, we use county fixed effects models to estimate expected rates in the 10-months post-policy, and calculate the difference compared to observed rates. We use linear regression to test whether county-level changes in drug arrest rates were associated with changes in drug-related hospital visit rates. In the month following passage, absolute Black-White disparities in monthly felony drug arrests decreased from 81 to 44 per 100,000 and continued to decrease over time. The probability of a felony conviction among those arrested for Prop 47 drug offenses declined by 14 percentage points (95% CI: -0.16, -0.12), from 0.21 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.24) to 0.07 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.08). Counties with higher felony conviction probabilities pre-Prop 47 declined most, reducing cross-county variance, with no evidence of increases in felony convictions for concurrent offenses. Declines in arrests were not associated with increases in drug-related hospital visits.
Author: Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 142
Book Description
Business improvement districts (BIDs) collect assessments and invest in local service provisions and activities, such as place promotion, street cleaning, and public safety. Such activities can help reduce crime and youth violence by increasing informal social control, reducing signs of disorder and blight, improving order maintenance, and enriching job opportunities. This report examines BIDs' impact on crime and youth violence in Los Angeles.
Author: William R. Shadish Publisher: Cengage Learning ISBN: Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 664
Book Description
Sections include: experiments and generalised causal inference; statistical conclusion validity and internal validity; construct validity and external validity; quasi-experimental designs that either lack a control group or lack pretest observations on the outcome; quasi-experimental designs that use both control groups and pretests; quasi-experiments: interrupted time-series designs; regresssion discontinuity designs; randomised experiments: rationale, designs, and conditions conducive to doing them; practical problems 1: ethics, participation recruitment and random assignment; practical problems 2: treatment implementation and attrition; generalised causal inference: a grounded theory; generalised causal inference: methods for single studies; generalised causal inference: methods for multiple studies; a critical assessment of our assumptions.
Author: Lois M. Davis Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833081322 Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 110
Book Description
After conducting a comprehensive literature search, the authors undertook a meta-analysis to examine the association between correctional education and reductions in recidivism, improvements in employment after release from prison, and other outcomes. The study finds that receiving correctional education while incarcerated reduces inmates' risk of recidivating and may improve their odds of obtaining employment after release from prison.
Author: Richard McCleary Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190661569 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 393
Book Description
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops methods and models for analysis and interpretation of time series experiments while also addressing recent developments in causal modeling. Unlike other time series texts, it integrates the statistical issues of design, estimation, and interpretation with foundational validity issues. Drawing on examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, this text addresses researchers and graduate students in a wide range of the behavioral, biomedical, and social sciences.
Author: Bryan Ding
Author: Bryan Ding
Author: Patricio Domínguez
Author: Stephanie Brooks Holliday
Author: Sarah Hunter
Author: Ryan David Woolford
Author: Alyssa Mooney
Author: 
Author: William R. Shadish
Author: Lois M. Davis
Author: Richard McCleary