Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Ethic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
Author: Marta Reynal-Querol
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars
Author: Michael F. Bleaney
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
We investigate the determinants of onset, duration and incidence of civil wars, and their sensitivity to different coding rules. Whatever the coding rule used, incidence of civil war is largely determined by poverty, country size, mountainous terrain and ethnic diversity. Poverty reduces the opportunity cost of rebellion, and mountainous terrain makes rebellions harder to defeat, while ethnic diversity creates potential conflict, since some linguistic groups may feel under-represented. Continuation and onset of civil war are non-overlapping subsets of incidence, depending on whether civil war occurred in the previous year. We exploit this aspect to test whether the determinants of continuation and onset are statistically significantly different. For four out of five coding rules, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of common determinants of civil war onset and continuation. This is the main contribution of the paper. Ethnic diversity is particularly high in Africa, where many civil wars occur, but we show that the significance of ethnic diversity is not just an unidentified Africa effect. Our estimated model works as well for Africa as for other areas. There is evidence that ethnic polarization matters as well as fractionalization. We show that polarization understates the propensity for conflict in societies with high ethnic diversity, where the polarization measure tends to be low, but otherwise outperforms fractionalization as a predictor of conflict. Mountainous terrain is generally not significant when ethnic polarization is included.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
We investigate the determinants of onset, duration and incidence of civil wars, and their sensitivity to different coding rules. Whatever the coding rule used, incidence of civil war is largely determined by poverty, country size, mountainous terrain and ethnic diversity. Poverty reduces the opportunity cost of rebellion, and mountainous terrain makes rebellions harder to defeat, while ethnic diversity creates potential conflict, since some linguistic groups may feel under-represented. Continuation and onset of civil war are non-overlapping subsets of incidence, depending on whether civil war occurred in the previous year. We exploit this aspect to test whether the determinants of continuation and onset are statistically significantly different. For four out of five coding rules, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of common determinants of civil war onset and continuation. This is the main contribution of the paper. Ethnic diversity is particularly high in Africa, where many civil wars occur, but we show that the significance of ethnic diversity is not just an unidentified Africa effect. Our estimated model works as well for Africa as for other areas. There is evidence that ethnic polarization matters as well as fractionalization. We show that polarization understates the propensity for conflict in societies with high ethnic diversity, where the polarization measure tends to be low, but otherwise outperforms fractionalization as a predictor of conflict. Mountainous terrain is generally not significant when ethnic polarization is included.
External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
Author: Ibrahim Elbadawi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
Previous studies have argued that longer civil wars have been caused by ethnically polarized societies, since rebel cohesion is easier and more lasting with polarization. This study shows that external interventions tend to reduce the cost of coordinating a rebellion (or of fighting a rebellion), thereby lengthening the duration of civil wars even in societies that are not ethnically polarized.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
Previous studies have argued that longer civil wars have been caused by ethnically polarized societies, since rebel cohesion is easier and more lasting with polarization. This study shows that external interventions tend to reduce the cost of coordinating a rebellion (or of fighting a rebellion), thereby lengthening the duration of civil wars even in societies that are not ethnically polarized.
On the Duration of Civil War
Author: Paul Collier
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Book Description
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Book Description
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
Ethnic polarization, potential conflict, and civil wars[
Public Opinion, Democracy, and Market Reform in Africa
Author: Michael Bratton
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521602914
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 488
Book Description
This book is a groundbreaking exploration of public opinion in sub-Saharan Africa. Based on the Afrobarometer, a survey research project, it reveals what ordinary Africans think about democracy and market reforms, subjects on which almost nothing is otherwise known. The authors find that support for democracy in Africa is wide but shallow and that Afrcns feel trapped between state and market. While Africans are learning about reform on the basis of knowledge, reasoning, and experience, few countries are likely to attain full-fledged democracies and markets anytime soonn.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521602914
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 488
Book Description
This book is a groundbreaking exploration of public opinion in sub-Saharan Africa. Based on the Afrobarometer, a survey research project, it reveals what ordinary Africans think about democracy and market reforms, subjects on which almost nothing is otherwise known. The authors find that support for democracy in Africa is wide but shallow and that Afrcns feel trapped between state and market. While Africans are learning about reform on the basis of knowledge, reasoning, and experience, few countries are likely to attain full-fledged democracies and markets anytime soonn.
Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa
Author: Daniel N. Posner
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316582973
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 360
Book Description
This book presents a theory to account for why and when politics revolves around one axis of social cleavage instead of another. It does so by examining the case of Zambia, where people identify themselves either as members of one of the country's seventy-three tribes or as members of one of its four principal language groups. The book accounts for the conditions under which Zambian political competition revolves around tribal differences and under which it revolves around language group differences. Drawing on a simple model of identity choice, it shows that the answer depends on whether the country operates under single-party or multi-party rule. During periods of single-party rule, tribal identities serve as the axis of electoral mobilization and self-identification; during periods of multi-party rule, broader language group identities play this role. The book thus demonstrates how formal institutional rules determine the kinds of social cleavages that matter in politics.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316582973
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 360
Book Description
This book presents a theory to account for why and when politics revolves around one axis of social cleavage instead of another. It does so by examining the case of Zambia, where people identify themselves either as members of one of the country's seventy-three tribes or as members of one of its four principal language groups. The book accounts for the conditions under which Zambian political competition revolves around tribal differences and under which it revolves around language group differences. Drawing on a simple model of identity choice, it shows that the answer depends on whether the country operates under single-party or multi-party rule. During periods of single-party rule, tribal identities serve as the axis of electoral mobilization and self-identification; during periods of multi-party rule, broader language group identities play this role. The book thus demonstrates how formal institutional rules determine the kinds of social cleavages that matter in politics.
Ethnic Conflicts, Civil War and Cost of Conflict
Author: Raul Caruso
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1780521316
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 276
Book Description
Includes some of the selected papers presented by scholars in a European Peace Science Network Meeting held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. This title covers the conflicts in Maoist India, South America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1780521316
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 276
Book Description
Includes some of the selected papers presented by scholars in a European Peace Science Network Meeting held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. This title covers the conflicts in Maoist India, South America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.