Estimation of Retention Parameters for the Prototype Officer Personnel Inventory, Cost and Compensation Model PDF Download
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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
This research estimated a multiperiod Annualized Cost of Leaving (ACOL-2) model that predicts officer career decisions as a function of economic, demographic, and Army personnel policy (e.g., military compensation) influences. The panel probit estimation yielded statistically significant pay but not unemployment effects. The research also found that fixed, unobserved preferences for military service significantly influence retention behavior. The estimation encompassed up to 13 consecutive annual decision points, with data taken from ARI's Officer Longitudinal Research Database, covering year groups 1979-1992. The retention parameter estimates were embedded in an Officer Personnel Inventory, Cost and Compensation (OPICC) Model. This PC-based prototype model was designed and developed to improve the Army's ability to effectively manage its officer force by providing policy makers with accurate information about the impact of policy changes, including promotion policy, compensation, and separation incentives. The OPICC model provides estimates of the impacts of policy and economic changes to the Officer Personnel Management Directorate inventory for a 6-year projection horizon. The prototype version does not contain a cost estimation capability. The model was validated by using it to predict actual historical behavior.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
This research estimated a multiperiod Annualized Cost of Leaving (ACOL-2) model that predicts officer career decisions as a function of economic, demographic, and Army personnel policy (e.g., military compensation) influences. The panel probit estimation yielded statistically significant pay but not unemployment effects. The research also found that fixed, unobserved preferences for military service significantly influence retention behavior. The estimation encompassed up to 13 consecutive annual decision points, with data taken from ARI's Officer Longitudinal Research Database, covering year groups 1979-1992. The retention parameter estimates were embedded in an Officer Personnel Inventory, Cost and Compensation (OPICC) Model. This PC-based prototype model was designed and developed to improve the Army's ability to effectively manage its officer force by providing policy makers with accurate information about the impact of policy changes, including promotion policy, compensation, and separation incentives. The OPICC model provides estimates of the impacts of policy and economic changes to the Officer Personnel Management Directorate inventory for a 6-year projection horizon. The prototype version does not contain a cost estimation capability. The model was validated by using it to predict actual historical behavior.
Author: Patrick C. Mackin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 74
Book Description
This study assessed alternative approaches to incorporating an econometric module in ODCSPER's redesigned strength management system. It includes an examination of the operation of the strength management system and an assessment of the analytical needs of strength planners. The study also looked at available econometric methodologies and results available in the literature. These findings were integrated with an evaluation of the major management issues for individual Army personnel communities. Study findings include a recommendation on the module's design specification, with description of key module algorithms and identification of appropriate econometric models and parameters. Other results include an evaluation of existing empirical parameters and recommendations for future econometric research to provide the module with new and improved parameters.
Author: Richard L. Fernandez Publisher: ISBN: Category : United States Languages : en Pages : 74
Book Description
This note is a nontechnical description of the Dynamic Retention Model (DRM), which facilities analyses of the costs and benefits of proposed changes in the major policies affecting military personnel including the level and structure of military compensation, the major parameters of the personnel system, and the nondisability retirement system. The DRM predicts a retention rate for a group at any particular point that depends both on future prospects and on history (promotions, pay, bonuses, etc.) for the group members. Because it models individual decisionmaking, the model can simulate the effects of policy changes that have no analogues in past policies. The authors demonstrate the flexibility of the model by comparing it with the Annualized Cost of Leaving (ACOL) model.
Author: Glenn A. Gotz Publisher: ISBN: Category : History Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
A Dynamic Econometric Retention Model (DERM) is designed for studying the effects of alternative compensation policies on the retention behavior of Air Force officers, including the Uniformed Services Retirement Modernization Act, the President's Commission on Military Compensation, and the Uniformed Services Retirement Benefits Act. DERM is a model of sequential behavior containing the appropriate econometric method for estimating retention rate. The econometric method is a maximum likelihood procedure endogenously determined by the specification of the behavioral model. It differs from earlier approaches in that it explicitly considers behavioral effects flowing from decomposing the disturbance term into permanent and transitory components. An implication of DERM is that retention rates depend both on prospective future returns to remaining in the military and on past occurrences. If this is correct, then simple regression models should overpredict the retention gains of proposed compensation policies, exactly what happens in two recent reenlistment studies using regression analysis.
Author: David Schulker Publisher: ISBN: 9781977407474 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
RAND Project Air Force was tasked with developing a new capability for planners: a retention early warning system (REWS) that alerts policymakers when a subgroup of U.S. Air Force (USAF) military members is at risk for future shortages. The goal of the research project was to develop a forecasting model for retention, operationalized within a prototype decision-support application, that can alert decisionmakers to emerging problems and thus allow them enough time to consider adjusting accession and retention policies before shortages occur. The authors' overall approach to designing the system drew on widely used paradigms for solving data science problems. These paradigms emphasize understanding the business problem, drawing on a wide array of data sources and types, testing several flexible prediction approaches to optimize performance, and operationalizing the information for decisionmaking. To gain an understanding of the data sources that would be desirable for this application, the authors performed an extensive review of the turnover literature and identified gaps in existing USAF data collection efforts.
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Author: Patrick C. Mackin
Author: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences
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Author: Patrick C. Mackin
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Author: Richard L. Fernandez
Author: Glenn A. Gotz
Author: David Schulker
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