Author: Publisher:
ISBN: 9789524624480
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Book Description
Estimating Open Economy Phillips Curves for the Euro Area with Directly Measured Expectations
Author: Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries
Author: Fabio RumlerPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : European Union countries
Languages : en
Pages : 56
Book Description
Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?
Author: Mr.Jiaqian ChenPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151352786X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Macroeconomic Performance in a Globalising Economy
Author: Robert AndertonPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139493825
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 299
Book Description
The process of globalisation has been ongoing for centuries, but few would doubt that it has accelerated and intensified in recent decades. This acceleration is evidenced as much by the strong synchronicity in the rapid transmission of financial crises starting in late 2007 as it is by the decade of almost unprecedented growth in international trade and financial market liberalisation that preceded it. This book shows how the international economy has become more connected via increased production, trade, capital flows and financial linkages. Using a variety of methodologies, including both panel econometrics and DSGE modelling, a team of experts from academia, central banks and the IMF examine how this increased globalisation has affected competitiveness, productivity, inflation and the labour market. This timely contribution to the globalisation literature provides a longer-term perspective while also evaluating some of the potential implications for policy makers, particularly from a European perspective.
Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks
Author: Davide DebortoliPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484311752
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
Book Description
Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence
Author: Mr.Rudolfs BemsPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148439223X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
EU Economic Policy at the Dawn of the Century
Author: Patrick M. CrowleyPublisher: Nova Publishers
ISBN: 9781600219474
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
Book Description
The European Union (EU) has undergone remarkable change in the last century, from frequent conflicts in the first part of the last century, to peace, stability and unprecedented prosperity in the second half. As we move into the first half of the twenty-first century, there is also a sense that a fragile economic renaissance is underway in the EU, but one that is fraught with challenges and difficulties. Contrary to many of the vociferous critics of the single currency project (mostly US economists and some UK politicians, most notably Thatcher (2002), to date the project has met with remarkable success, despite the dramatic fall in the euro from its launch date and the strains imposed on EU economies following the recent downturn in the world economy. EU Enlargement has now been successfully completed, and although there have been painful discussions on EU institutional reform to accommodate the expansion, a breakdown in the 2005 budget negotiations and an controversy over the implementation of the Stability and Growth pact, it is likely that this will not impede the addition of new Member States from the east.
Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Author: John Y. CampbellPublisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226092127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
Book Description
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance
Author: Georgios P. KouretasPublisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 178350756X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 285
Book Description
Banking sector transformation, economic growth and inequality and exchange rate arrangements are critical issues whose importance has been highlighted during the recent financial crisis. This volume contains new research on the relationships between economic growth, inequality and the financial sector.