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Author: Fernando Mauro Giuliano Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 104
Book Description
In the following essays I study the effects of disruptions in financial markets on aggregate outcomes. In the first two chapters, I study the transmission mechanisms from financial crises to the real economy in emerging countries, in environments where firms set heterogeneous markups. The introduction of heterogeneous markups is backed by data: I document that there is evidence of firms setting heterogeneous markups using microdata for Argentina and Colombia. As an endogenous source of resource misallocation across firms, markups can potentially be an important driver of aggregate productivity and output dynamics during large financial crises. The opening chapter is my first attempt to address the role of heterogeneous markups during financial crises. To investigate the extent to which this has a significant quantitative role, I adapt a model of imperfect competition where markups are a function of within-sector market shares. Using microdata from Argentina's annual manufacturing survey, I document that market shares become more disperse during the Argentine 2001-02 crisis. Through the lens of the model this results in increased variability of markups, which decreases aggregate productivity. I perform an accounting exercise and find that markup-induced misallocation can explain between 6.4$\%$ and 15.6$\%$ of the fall in aggregate productivity during the Argentine crisis, or up to one third of the overall effect of resource misallocation. In Chapter 2, joint with Gabriel Zaourak, we explicitly introduce financial frictions to analyze the interaction between credit constraints and variable markups during a credit crunch. Financial frictions take the form of a collateral constraint on working capital. A financial crisis in this framework is modeled as an exogenous shock to the maximum amount of working capital that can be financed externally. Using microdata from financial statements and manufacturing surveys, we calibrate the model to match salient features of the Colombian economy for the 1998-99 financial crisis, and evaluate the transition dynamics of aggregate variables. The model replicates the fall and subsequent recovery of aggregate output and productivity, as well as the concentration patterns observed in the data. We find that in this case variable markups partially offset the resource misallocation triggered by a credit crunch, dampening the response of aggregate variables. The reason is that under variable markups firms try not to change their price (hence quantities) as much as they would under constant markups. This is an example of the ambiguous effect of distortions in a second best world. The last chapter is an early empirical exploration of the link between price fluctuations in financial markets and aggregate labor market outcomes, using data from the United Kingdom. I build a quarterly wealth index from stock market prices and real estate prices for the 1971-2012 period. Using a VECM, I find a robust co-integrating relationship between the unemployment rate and the wealth index. Specifically, fluctuations in wealth Granger-cause the unemployment rate, but not the opposite. This relationship is true for both components of the wealth index individually, and is stable over time. This is consistent with a model where output is demand determined and fluctuations in asset prices affect the unemployment rate through changes in aggregate consumption.
Author: Fernando Mauro Giuliano Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 104
Book Description
In the following essays I study the effects of disruptions in financial markets on aggregate outcomes. In the first two chapters, I study the transmission mechanisms from financial crises to the real economy in emerging countries, in environments where firms set heterogeneous markups. The introduction of heterogeneous markups is backed by data: I document that there is evidence of firms setting heterogeneous markups using microdata for Argentina and Colombia. As an endogenous source of resource misallocation across firms, markups can potentially be an important driver of aggregate productivity and output dynamics during large financial crises. The opening chapter is my first attempt to address the role of heterogeneous markups during financial crises. To investigate the extent to which this has a significant quantitative role, I adapt a model of imperfect competition where markups are a function of within-sector market shares. Using microdata from Argentina's annual manufacturing survey, I document that market shares become more disperse during the Argentine 2001-02 crisis. Through the lens of the model this results in increased variability of markups, which decreases aggregate productivity. I perform an accounting exercise and find that markup-induced misallocation can explain between 6.4$\%$ and 15.6$\%$ of the fall in aggregate productivity during the Argentine crisis, or up to one third of the overall effect of resource misallocation. In Chapter 2, joint with Gabriel Zaourak, we explicitly introduce financial frictions to analyze the interaction between credit constraints and variable markups during a credit crunch. Financial frictions take the form of a collateral constraint on working capital. A financial crisis in this framework is modeled as an exogenous shock to the maximum amount of working capital that can be financed externally. Using microdata from financial statements and manufacturing surveys, we calibrate the model to match salient features of the Colombian economy for the 1998-99 financial crisis, and evaluate the transition dynamics of aggregate variables. The model replicates the fall and subsequent recovery of aggregate output and productivity, as well as the concentration patterns observed in the data. We find that in this case variable markups partially offset the resource misallocation triggered by a credit crunch, dampening the response of aggregate variables. The reason is that under variable markups firms try not to change their price (hence quantities) as much as they would under constant markups. This is an example of the ambiguous effect of distortions in a second best world. The last chapter is an early empirical exploration of the link between price fluctuations in financial markets and aggregate labor market outcomes, using data from the United Kingdom. I build a quarterly wealth index from stock market prices and real estate prices for the 1971-2012 period. Using a VECM, I find a robust co-integrating relationship between the unemployment rate and the wealth index. Specifically, fluctuations in wealth Granger-cause the unemployment rate, but not the opposite. This relationship is true for both components of the wealth index individually, and is stable over time. This is consistent with a model where output is demand determined and fluctuations in asset prices affect the unemployment rate through changes in aggregate consumption.
Author: Sang Yup Choi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 130
Book Description
This dissertation studies how financial market volatility or uncertainty in the U.S. economy affects real economic activity both in the U.S. and other open economies. Chapter 1 critically examines a stylized fact about the effects of uncertainty shocks on the U.S. economy. A link between uncertainty and firms' investment, hiring, and production decisions has drawn much attention in contemporary discussions after the 2008 financial crisis. Bloom (2009) showed that uncertainty events, identified by spikes in stock market volatility, triggered immediate falls in output and employment, followed by rapid rebounds. I show that such stock market volatility shocks failed to produce this same pattern of responses after 1983. Chapter 2 studies the effects of risk aversion shocks, measured by increases in the VIX, on emerging market economies (EMEs). By estimating a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, I find that, although risk aversion shocks do not have much impact on U.S. output, they do have a noticeable impact on the output of EMEs. To explain the contrast between the impact of risk appetite shocks on EMEs and the impact on the U.S. economy, a credit channel is proposed as a propagation mechanism. In the model, an increase in the VIX is translated to a risk-aversion shock that generates a "flight to quality." As international investors pull their money from EMEs, borrowing costs increase and domestic credit falls as a consequence of credit market imperfections. Higher borrowing costs, in turn, lead to a fall in investment that causes a real depreciation and a decline in total output through sectoral linkages. Finally, Chapter 3, which is co-authored with Prakash Loungani, studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics by separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using SP500 data from the first quarter of 1963 through the third quarter of 2014, we construct a separate index to measure sectoral uncertainty and compare its effects on the unemployment rate with that of aggregate uncertainty in a standard VAR model, augmented by a local projection method. We find that aggregate uncertainty shocks lead to an immediate increase in unemployment, followed by swift reversals. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty shocks have a long-lasting impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. Our findings highlight an additional channel through which uncertainty shocks have persistent effects on unemployment by requiring substantial inter-industry labor reallocation.
Author: Rita Biswas Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 1789733898 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 168
Book Description
This volume, dedicated to John W. Kensinger, explores a variety of topics in financial economics, including firm growth, investment risks, and the profitability of the banking industry. With its global perspective, Essays in Financial Economics is a valuable addition to the bookshelf of any researcher in finance.
Author: Jorge Mario Uribe Gil Publisher: Ed. Universidad de Cantabria ISBN: 8417888756 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.
Author: Changho Choi Publisher: ISBN: 9781124906706 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
My dissertation investigates several long-standing issues in macro and international macro, specifically questions related to technological change, financial market imperfections and international risk sharing. The first two chapters analyze these issues in a closed economy model, while the third chapter studies these issues in an open economy model. The first chapter examines the role of credit market imperfections in propagating news of future productivity, both theoretically and empirically. The second chapter investigates the technology-hours debate in an economy buffeted by anticipated technology and fiscal policy shocks. The third chapter, jointly written with Yi Chen, examines the role of a recursive preference developed in Epstein and Zin (1989) in explaining the equity home bias puzzle in an otherwise standard two-country endowment-driven open macro model. Viewed as a whole, my dissertation is an effort to connect technological processes with financial markets in macro models in order to further our understanding of macro phenomena. The first chapter investigates the role of credit market imperfections in shaping the response of the economy to news of future productivity, and proposes an alternative view of how news shocks propagate through the economy. In contrast to the conventional wisdom about news of future productivity - that it generates strong booms in the short run - I develop a novel news-driven business cycle model in which credit market imperfections significantly dampen the short-run response of economic activity to news. To exploit the fact that news of future productivity generates an asymmetry between expected returns and the current financial conditions faced by firms, I model credit market frictions as arising from the agency cost problem. In contrast to the limited enforceability problem, the agency cost problem serves to dampen the short-run response of investment because the desire to increase investment due to the higher expected returns is offset by the endogenous rise in the external finance premium in the absence of an actual rise in productivity. This inertial behavior of investment is in turn transmitted to hours worked and final output through the general equilibrium effect. I then estimate the response of economic activity to news shocks using U.S. manufacturing data and find some suggestive evidence for the credit frictions mechanism presented in the model. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, economic activity exhibits a muted response to news shocks during anticipation periods and therefore tracks, rather than leads, the actual change in productivity. Second, news shocks explain a small fraction of output fluctuations. Finally, industries that are more dependent on external finance or exhibit more volatile idiosyncratic productivity growth appear to have a more dampened response to news shocks in the short run. The second chapter investigates the reliability of using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) evidence on the response of hours to a technology shock to discriminate between two workhorse business cycle models: standard real business cycle models and sticky price models. Given growing attention to the role of news shocks in the business cycle literature, I evaluate the performance of the SVAR procedure when the true data generating process is driven by news shocks about future technology and fiscal policy. The main results are summarized as follows. First, when the SVAR procedure is applied to the data simulated from an economy with unanticipated shocks to the technology process, the estimated impulse responses have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses. Second, when the SVAR procedure is applied to the data generated from an economy with news shocks to the technology process, the estimated impulse responses generally have a different qualitative pattern from the true responses, and frequently they produce opposite signs. The poor performance of the SVAR procedure largely comes from the anticipation of technology, whereas little is attributed to the anticipation of fiscal policy. Third, if the true data generating process is driven by conventional unanticipated technology shocks, a SVAR researcher can be confident about drawing the conclusion about model discrimination. However, if the true data generating process is driven by news about future technology but a researcher still uses the SVAR procedure based on the conventional information assumption, then the probability that a researcher draws the right conclusion about model discrimination falls dramatically. The third chapter, written jointly with Yi Chen, investigates the role of a recursive preference developed in Epstein and Zin (1989) (EZ) in explaining the equity home bias puzzle, and shows that EZ preferences play a role of increasing the home equity share relative to standard CRRA preferences. This happens because EZ preferences generate a long-run risk hedging demand that contributes to a positive covariance between the relative expenditure and the excess equity return. As a result, the local equity is more likely to be a good asset since it pays off more when investors are willing to spend more. Additional main findings are as follows. First, using the least structural information, we show that the degree of equity home bias depends on the conditional covariance-variance ratio between the relative expenditure and the excess equity return, which nests as a special case the standard CRRA models' implication that the equity home bias depends on the conditional covariance-variance ratio between the real exchange rate and the excess equity return. Second, our model is an infinite-horizon model, while standard trade-cost-based explanations work within two-period models in which portfolio adjustment is impermissible by construction. Thus, our model gets the moment representations for the equity home bias right, while two-period trade-cost-based models assume away portfolio adjustment, thereby overstating the relationship between the real exchange rate and the excess equity return.
Author: Tengdong Liu Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 302
Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on financial economics, focusing on different types of financial and economic risks and covering different geographical regions. These risk types are related to stock, bond and commodity markets, financial stress and country risk ratings. The first essay investigates directional relationships, regime variances, transition probabilities and expected regime durations for two systems of economic and financial variables. The first system consists of daily series which include credit and market risks. The second system is based on monthly data, and encompasses credit, and market risks and economic activity and oil variables. The methodology is based on the Markov-Switching cointegrated VAR model. The results suggest there is a pronounced regime-specific behavior in both systems with FTP-MS model. There is a significant difference between the higher expected duration in the low volatility regime and the lower duration in the high volatility regime in both systems. Both models suggest that during the 2007/2008 Great Recession, the system stays mainly in regime 2 but returns to the normality state in the 2009 recovery period. The fundamental variables (industrial production, oil prices and the real interest rate) have varying effects in both regimes and both systems. Quantitative easing has significant effects on the bond expected volatility index MOVE in the high volatility regime and industrial production in both regimes. I also examine the driving forces of the time-varying transition probabilities and find that increases of oil price will decrease the probability that the financial markets stay in the low volatility regime. The second essay examines the asymmetric adjustments of the stock markets of the five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to changes in the economic, financial and political country risk ratings of these countries in the short run and long run, using the momentum threshold autoregression (MTAR) and the vector error-correction(VEC) models. The findings suggest that the long-run relationships between these four variables respond asymmetrically depending on the direction of the shocks. The adjustment is faster when the spread between the actual level of stock market index and the level suggested by country risk ratings is narrowing than when it is widening, except for Russia which has the opposite response. The Chinese stock market seems to have the fastest adjustments in the short-and long-run among those of the five BRICS. In terms of the three country risk ratings the financial risk ratings for the five BRICS show the most responsiveness to all the variables in the long-run, while the political risk ratings exhibit the least. The economic and political risk ratings show the fastest adjustments for Brazil, while the financial risk rating is most pronounced in Russia. The third essay examines the Value-at-Risk for ten euro-zone equity markets individually and when divided into two groups: PIIGS and the Core, employing four VaR estimation methods. The results are evaluated according to four statistical properties as well as the Basel capital requirements for the period including the 2007/2008 financial crisis. The estimation and the evaluation are applied to the individual assets as well as to the portfolios consisting of the two groups. The results demonstrate that the CEVT method applied to the ten individual equity assets meet all the statistical criteria the best. The two optimal equity portfolios do not show diversification benefits as the PIIGS portfolio selects Spain's IBEX only and that of the Core opts for Austria's ATX only. The asset class-augmented portfolio that includes the Austrian (ATX) index, oil and gold gives the highest diversification gains. Adding other commodities such as corn and silver, or commodities indices to the augmented portfolio does not enhance the gains. At the optimal portfolio level, the Duration-Peak-Over-the-Threshold (DPOT) is recommended the best in terms of satisfying the Basel rules.
Author: Steven M. Fazzari Publisher: M.E. Sharpe ISBN: 9781563240164 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 222
Book Description
This collection of papers on financial instability and its impact on macroeconomic performance honours Hyman P. Minsky and his lifelong work. It is based on a conference at Washington University, St. Louis, in 1990 and includes among the authors Benjamin M. Friedman, Charles P. Kindleberger, Jan Kregel and Steven Fazzari. These papers consider Minsky's definitive analysis that yields such a clear and disturbing sequence of financial events: booms, government intervention to prevent debt contraction and new booms that cause a progressive buildup of new debt, eventually leaving the economy much more fragile financially.
Author: Giuseppe Fontana Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0230285589 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 363
Book Description
This volume focuses on current issues of debate in the area of modern macroeconomics and money, written from (a broadly interpreted) post Keynesian perspective. The papers connect with Philip Arestis' contributions to macroeconomics and money, and pay tribute to his distinguished career.
Author: Fernando Mauro Giuliano
Author: Fernando Mauro Giuliano
Author: Sang Yup Choi
Author: Kristina Meier
Author: Rita Biswas
Author: Kwanho Kim
Author: Jorge Mario Uribe Gil 
Author: Changho Choi
Author: Tengdong Liu
Author: Steven M. Fazzari
Author: Giuseppe Fontana