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Author: Imran Hussain Shah Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The principal objective of this thesis is to evaluate appropriate measures of inflation which are to be applicable for implementing monetary policy in developing countries. The first essay attempts to assess real effects of high inflation episodes for Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. In order to investigate the real effects of high inflation episodes, the study adopts an indicator for the inflationary real effect, named inflationary real response (IRR), which is the difference between the expected and output-neutral inflation. Both the expected and output-neutral inflation are computed as the decomposition of shocks induced in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The main finding of this chapter is that there is a positive real effect in economic growth in the period after high inflation. The second essay investigates the responses of real output and inflation to oil price, aggregate supply and demand shocks in the four Asian developing countries; Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Thailand. The structural VAR model is used to identify the different shocks and to explore the relative contributions of these shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. It is found that oil price shocks have negligible effects on economic activities for all the examined countries. However, aggregate supply and demand shocks are key sources of variation in output and inflation. The final essay examines whether the central bank should target a broader measure of the price index that incorporates stock prices alongside the prices of current goods and services. The primary contribution of this chapter is the estimation of a price index that can be efficiently utilised by central banks aiming to minimise output volatility. The results suggest that the central bank should use a price index that gives a sizeable weight to the fundamental component of stock prices to minimise output gap variance.
Author: Imran Hussain Shah Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The principal objective of this thesis is to evaluate appropriate measures of inflation which are to be applicable for implementing monetary policy in developing countries. The first essay attempts to assess real effects of high inflation episodes for Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. In order to investigate the real effects of high inflation episodes, the study adopts an indicator for the inflationary real effect, named inflationary real response (IRR), which is the difference between the expected and output-neutral inflation. Both the expected and output-neutral inflation are computed as the decomposition of shocks induced in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The main finding of this chapter is that there is a positive real effect in economic growth in the period after high inflation. The second essay investigates the responses of real output and inflation to oil price, aggregate supply and demand shocks in the four Asian developing countries; Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Thailand. The structural VAR model is used to identify the different shocks and to explore the relative contributions of these shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. It is found that oil price shocks have negligible effects on economic activities for all the examined countries. However, aggregate supply and demand shocks are key sources of variation in output and inflation. The final essay examines whether the central bank should target a broader measure of the price index that incorporates stock prices alongside the prices of current goods and services. The primary contribution of this chapter is the estimation of a price index that can be efficiently utilised by central banks aiming to minimise output volatility. The results suggest that the central bank should use a price index that gives a sizeable weight to the fundamental component of stock prices to minimise output gap variance.
Author: Zhandos Ybrayev Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation explores the effects of monetary policy on economic inequality, asset prices and unemployment in developing countries. Emerging market economies are structurally different from advanced economies as they are generally associated with greater financial frictions, underdeveloped financial markets, as well as both a high average level and unequal access to dollarized assets, among others. Thus, the study on the impact of monetary policy in emerging economies requires additional specifications. The first essay investigates the distributional consequences of monetary policy in the context of a small open economy framework. I show that wealthy households (represented by the top ten percent of the income distribution), who are more able to save in foreign currencies, gain in purchasing power of their incomes by hedging against domestic inflation. At the same time, since the poor (represented by the bottom fifty percent of the income distribution) retain larger share of liquid assets denominated in domestic currency, consequently leading them to bear a greater burden of local currency inflation. I also show that contractionary monetary policy is associated with periods of higher income inequality in emerging markets. The second essay presents a comprehensive practical analysis of Kazakhstani city-level housing prices. The key focus is to test whether there is a single, integrated Kazakhstani housing market, and hence to examine potential long-run relationships among the seven city housing prices series for which we have monthly data during the period 2014-2017. We also explore how monetary policy shifts and subsequent exchange rate shocks could affect the system of relative prices. The results obtained suggest that city-level house prices are weakly related across cities in the long run, and the interest rate channel of monetary policy currently is surprisingly weak in Kazakhstan. The third essay discusses a relatively new take on Inflation Targeting as a single-mandate monetary policy, which effectively exposes its many disadvantages. Our discussion first introduces the issues of coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies. Our empirical exercise directly addresses the unemployment outcome of inflation targeting policy compared to other monetary policy settings. Our results show that while IT actually reduced the average inflation rate prior 2008 financial crisis, it has a negative effect on the unemployment rate in the longer term. The paper argues that the aggregate unemployment rate is an optimal social welfare-maximizing goal for central banks and should be used as a natural second target in a typical emerging market economy case.
Author: Harry Johnson Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134623569 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 341
Book Description
Reprinting the second edition (which included a new introduction explaining developments which had emerged since first publication) this book discusses explorations in the fundamental theory of a monetary economy, a theoretical critique of the ‘Phillips Curve’ approach to the theory of inflation and the theory of the term structure of interest rates in terms of the theory of forward markets pioneered by David Meiselman.
Author: Xiaodai Xin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Debts, External Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Abstract: Both economic growth and stabilization require a well-functioning financial system, which includes the central bank and private financial institutions. This dissertation is comprised of three essays on monetary policy and financial development which are related to the roles of the central bank and private financial institutions. To better stabilize the economy, a central bank needs to formulate an optimal strategy for monetary policy and pursues an appropriate objective (targeting regime). In a forward-looking New Keynesian model with persistent output and inflation, the first essay (chapter 2) evaluates a broad hybrid targeting regime when the central bank operates under discretionary monetary policy. By employing the numerical analysis and comparing the performance of different targeting regimes, I find that the hybrid targeting regime yields a social loss closest to that under the optimal committed policy, generating a better outcome than other policy regimes. The second essay (chapter 3) provides new micro-level evidence for the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth based on a large sample of cross-country firm-level data. By examining an important micro channel through which financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms, I find that firms that are more externally dependent grow faster in countries with more developed financial systems. The third essay (chapter 4) investigates the impact of external debt on long-term investment and its interaction with domestic financial intermediation in emerging markets. Extending the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model to a small open economy with the role of financial intermediation, I find that the overall effect of a high level of external debt on investment depends heavily on the degree of domestic financial intermediation. Using a large sample of panel data on 76 developing countries over the last three decades, the empirical results indicate that when a country's domestic banking sector develops to a certain degree, the high level of external debt facilitates investment.
Author: Harry Johnson Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1135052506 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 277
Book Description
This volume consists of selected previously published key essays which have proved most useful for teaching advanced monetary economics. A short introduction was added which places the selection of essays and the issues they cover in the contemporaneous context of simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment. As relevant today as they were when they were first written, they enable the reader to anticipate intelligently what is likely to happen and why.
Author: Harry G. Johnson Publisher: Ashgate Publishing ISBN: 9780751202595 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 332
Book Description
This volume brings together the late Harry Johnson's essays and articles in monetary economics. It is specifically designed for teaching purposes. Part 1 deals with pure monetary theory. Part 2 looks at monetary and fiscal policy issues in North America. Part 3 looks at developing countries.
Author: I. G. Patel Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 288
Book Description
Research papers, economic policy, economic development, India - examines development policy, trade policy, balance of payments, agricultural policy, inflation, income distribution, economic planning, productivity policy, etc.; studies the repercussions on employment, basic needs fulfilment, low income families, etc; evaluates the impact on developing countries of development aid, economic aid and economic cooperation.
Author: Imran Hussain Shah
Author: Imran Hussain Shah
Author: Zhandos Ybrayev
Author: Harry Johnson
Author: Xiaodai Xin
Author: Harry Gordon Johnson
Author: Miranda S. Goeltom
Author: Shengzu Wang
Author: Harry Johnson
Author: Harry G. Johnson
Author: I. G. Patel