Essays on Financial Crises and Sectoral Analysis PDF Download

Author: KeyYong Park
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 118

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Book Description
This dissertation studies financial crises and sector-based analysis. Chapter 1 studies the balance of payments crisis in the euro area periphery countries preceded by significant private capital inflows from 1999 to 2007. With a detailed empirical investigation, I find that these capital inflows in the form of debt mainly financed the nontradable sector and the industries with weak forward linkages to the tradable sector. The model economy explains that domestic misallocation of the capital inflows in terms of inter-industry linkages can trigger the debt repayment problem which was experienced by PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain). More precisely, it shows that the debt infows under the protection of implicit bailout-guarantee cannot be repaid in the case when they primarily nance the nontradable sector with weak forward linkage to the tradable sector. Chapter 2, which is co-authored with Aaron Tornell and Hyo Sang Kim, looks at the size distribution of economic distress (ED) events over the recent period of globalization (1970 - 2014) and the long historical period (1830 - 2013). We find that there exists a remarkable relation between the magnitude of economic distress events and the frequency with which they occur. We document that there is a threshold below which the size of ED events follows an exponential distribution, while a Pareto distribution (a power-law) applies for ED events larger than the threshold. To explain the empirical results, we present a wildre model in which the dynamics of an individual ED event is determined by the interaction of two opposing forces: (i) the natural stochastic growth of the ED, which is proportional to the size of the damage that has already occurred; and (ii) a policy that attempts to extinguish the economic distress. We then derive the steady-state cross-sectional distribution of the final size of the ED events. Chapter 3 studies a sector rotation strategy. I introduce a sector rotation model that generates forecasts of sector performance combining 4 factors which include price momentum, market sentiment, macroeconomic factors, and earnings expectations. The backtest results show that all 4 factors and the sector rotation model outperform its benchmark (Equal-Weight Basket). Moreover, macro factor as a single factor generates the highest risk-adjusted returns.

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66

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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484355261
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 754

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Book Description
The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Author: Gabriel Roberto Zaourak
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 216

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Book Description
The following essays contribute towards our understanding of nancial crises and development dynamics. The dissertation is composed of three chapters. Chapter one---Lobbying for Capital Tax Benefits and Misallocation of Resources During Credit Crunches Corporations often have strong incentives to exert influence on the tax code and obtain additional tax benefits through lobbying. For the U.S. 2007-2009 financial crisis, I show that lobbying activity intensified, driven by large firms in sectors that depend more on external finance. Using a heterogeneous agent model with financial frictions and endogenous lobbying, I study the aggregate consequences of this rise in lobbying activity. When calibrated to U.S. micro data, the model generates an increase in lobbying that matches both the magnitude and the cross-sector and within-sector variation observed in the data. I find that lobbying for capital tax benefits, together with financial frictions, can account for 80 % of the decline in output and almost all the drop in total factor productivity observed during the crisis for the non-financial corporate sector. Relative to an economy without lobbying, this mechanism increases the dispersion in the marginal product of capital and amplifies the credit shock, leading to a one-third larger decline in output. I also study the long run effects of lobbying. Restricting lobbying implies welfare gains of 0.3 % after considering the transitional dynamics to the new steady state. Chapter 2---Market Power and Aggregate Efficiency in Financial Crises In joint work with Fernando Giuliano, we document that during financial crises in emerging economies, large firms become relatively larger and small firms become relatively smaller. What are the aggregate consequences of the resulting increase in market concentration? We answer this question quantitatively with a model where firms are able to exploit their market power through heterogeneous markups. Financial frictions take the form of a collateral constraint that gets tighter during a financial crisis. We discipline the model using detailed plant-level microdata for Colombia, and analyze the transition dynamics of an economy as it adjust to a credit crunch. We find that when firms are able to adjust their markups in response to a credit shock, the response of aggregate output and productivity is dampened. Variable markups act as a buffer that partially offsets the misallocation triggered by a financial crisis. This follows from adjustments at both the intensive and extensive margins. Chapter 3---Innovation Effort in a Model of Financial Frictions: The Case of Reforms The last chapter is part of an ongoing project to explore the role of innovation as a key ingredient to capture development dynamics of the growth miracles in the East of Asia. During the second half of the last century those economies carried out a rapid dismantling of distortions affecting the size of firms that led to a reallocation of resources. This, together with a slow financial liberalization, created the conditions for sustained increase in per capital income, an increase of investment rates and improvements in aggregate productivity. Using an environment with financial frictions and resource misallocation in a pre-reform economy, Buera and Shin (2013) were able to capture the first two facts. However, the model delivers counterfactual dynamics for aggregate productivity due to the assumption of exogenous firm level productivity. Extending their framework to allow firms to improve their productivity through innovation, I explore the implications of the interaction between financial frictions, resource misallocation and endogenous innovation.

Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1616405414
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 692

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Book Description
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Author: Reuven Glick
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521800204
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 494

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Book Description
The essays in this volume analyze causes of financial crises in emerging markets and different policy responses.

Author: Vedant Bhatnagar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 166

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Book Description
This dissertation applies macroeconomic and econometric tools to first improve our understanding of the causes, results, and transmission of financial crises and then use this learning to propose policies to counter them. In the first chapter, I identify a financial market externality and propose a policy to correct it. The main idea is that defaults and bankruptcy filings increase during a financial crisis, and weaken the lenders' balance sheet, which makes borrowing expensive and adversely affects economic activity in an environment where external financing is required for production. Individual agents do not internalize that collective default decision has an effect on interest rates. This paper develops a DSGE model to study this phenomenon and shows that individuals default "too much" compared to the social planner who internalizes this pecuniary externality, and can eliminate it by using bailouts. However, this encourages individual agents to increase borrowing and creates moral hazard, and therefore, an optimal policy comprises of both, ex-post bailouts, and ex-ante borrowing tax. Quantitative analysis shows that this policy increases welfare and reduces the incidence and severity of financial crises. Moreover, bond prices under this policy stochastically dominate bond prices in general equilibrium. In the second chapter, I analyze an indirect bailout response to above externality. First, I demonstrate that this policy can be used to mitigate overdefaulting, avoid financial crises, and improve welfare. Moreover, quantitative analysis provides the state contingent socially efficient indirect bailouts. Second, the paper theoretically shows that indirect bailouts can outperform direct bailouts in an imperfect information environment. In the third chapter, Arturo Lamadrid and I analyze US monetary policy's (Taper Tantrum) spillover effects o emerging economies (Mexico). Our results demonstrate that the spillovers are significant and Mexican financial market became riskier during Taper Tantrum. However, more granular analysis of loan shares by their credit worthiness and type of banks reveals that the spillover effects vary by loan type. These results lend support for better coordination among central banks to correct for the unaccounted spillovers.

Author: R. Glenn Hubbard
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226355887
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 420

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Book Description
Warnings of the threat of an impending financial crisis are not new, but do we really know what constitutes an actual episode of crisis and how, once begun, it can be prevented from escalating into a full-blown economic collapse? Using both historical and contemporary episodes of breakdowns in financial trade, contributors to this volume draw insights from theory and empirical data, from the experience of closed and open economies worldwide, and from detailed case studies. They explore the susceptibility of American corporations to economic downturns; the origins of banking panics; and the behavior of financial markets during periods of crisis. Sever papers specifically address the current thrift crisis—including a detailed analysis of the over 500 FSLIC-insured thrifts in the southeast—and seriously challenge the value of recent measures aimed at preventing future collapse in that industry. Government economists and policy makers, scholars of industry and banking, and many in the business community will find these timely papers an invaluable reference.

Author: Jorge Mario Uribe Gil
Publisher: Ed. Universidad de Cantabria
ISBN: 8417888756
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Book Description
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.

Author: Peter Isard
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9789401057707
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr. contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr. Bob Flood has made important contributions to many areas of economic analysis, including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market volatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. Contributors were invited to address any of the topics or others of their choosing. The results include five papers on topics in international finance; two of these papers, as well as the panel discussion, focus on speculative attacks and financial crises. The other three take new directions in exploring topics in which existing models leave much to be desired.