Author: Emmanuil NoikokyrisPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 356
Book Description
Essays on Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy
Author: Emmanuil NoikokyrisEssays on Asset Prices and Macroeconomic News Announcements
Author: John Cong ZhouPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
My dissertation is composed of three chapters that are unified by their exploration of asset prices and macroeconomic news announcements. With respect to asset prices, my main focus is on the price discovery process: how do asset prices reveal information relevant for asset fundamentals? Through my research, I provide new answers to this question. My work gets at core issues in asset pricing: whether financial markets are informationally efficient; why some assets earn unconditionally high premia; and how the sensitivity of prices to information varies over time and across assets. Specifically, chapter one shows evidence that sophisticated traders with an informational advantage inefficiently impound their edge into the aggregate U.S. stock market and U.S. Treasury bonds. In chapter two, I explore a model in which investors are averse to ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) to explain why the equity premium is concentrated around specific events. Finally, chapter three investigates how the Federal Reserve's zero lower bound affects the response of asset prices, in particular interest rates, to information. Each of the three chapters explores the price discovery process using the unique setting of U.S. macroeconomic news announcements, which are made by government agencies and private-sector organizations and cover macroeconomic data on inflation, output, and unemployment. Analyzing financial markets in this setting deepens our understanding of how asset prices reflect information about macroeconomic fundamentals. At the same time, the results have macroeconomic implications; for example, the assumptions of monetary policy models in theory and the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in practice.
Essays on the Interaction between Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Author: Alain DurréPublisher: Presses univ. de Louvain
ISBN: 2930344296
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : fr
Pages : 188
Book Description
Despite the consequences of financial bubbles on economic activity, it is still an open question to what extent the monetary policy should react to sharp fluctuations of equity prices. This dissertation attempts to contribute to the debate with some theoretical and empirical analyses of the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. Chapter 1 incorporates the effect of real equity prices on aggregate demand in a forward-looking expectations neo-Keynesian model. This effect arises either from a wealth effect or from a change in consumers' confidence. The objective function of monetary authorities depends on the output gap and the deviation of expected inflation from the target. A numerical simulation, based on US data, illustrates the quantitative importance of the financial market channel for various exogenous shocks. In Chapter 2, the variation of equity prices enters explicitly in the loss function of the monetary authorities while, at the same time, it affects aggregate demand. This modifies the optimal monetary policy by increasing the volatility of the nominal interest rate. Chapter 3 examines how the launch of the European single currency has affected expectations on future monetary policy by comparing the econometric results of a co-integrated VAR model on pre- and post- January 1999 data. Chapter 4 deals with diverse methodological issues related to the estimation of the Taylor rule, which represents Central Bank decisions by a single and stable function. Several interesting results emerge from the modelling of the Fed funds rate over the period 1987-2002. In particular, assuming a discontinuous and asymmetric response of the Federal Reserve to fluctuations of equity prices, corrects the apparent instability of the rule.
Essays on monetary policy and asset prices
Author: Jong Chil SonEssays on Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
Author: Linyan ZhuPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on monetary policy and asset prices. The first chapter proposes a novel methodology to disentangle in real-time the signaling effect of a Fed announcement from exogenous monetary shocks. The method relies on the different ways monetary news and non-monetary news change the short end of the yield curve at high frequency, with the latter informed by market responses to macroeconomic data releases. The estimated revelation of Fed information is strongly correlated with the difference between market forecasts and the Fed's own forecasts. The policy shock is found to have a bigger effect on the economy than suggested using an instrument without adjustment for the signaling effect. The second chapter studies the structural forces driving the financial market responses to data releases and Fed announcements. I estimate a coherent, realistic framework that prices Treasury bonds based on macroeconomic fundamentals. The framework explicitly recognizes agents' information frictions in regard to contemporaneous aggregate outcomes, successfully matches the market responses to macroeconomic events and sheds light on the nature of news learned by investors at various events. The third chapter proposes a state-space approach to decomposing a stock's idiosyncratic volatility into a common component and an idiosyncratic one. The measure of the common idiosyncratic volatility is persistent at the daily frequency. It accounts for idiosyncratic volatilities in sample better than GARCH(1,1) and a principal component approach. It also forecasts the future levels of idiosyncratic volatilities better than GARCH(1,1) in the medium- to long-run. I assess its pricing implication in the cross section of stock returns.
Essays in Monetary Policy and Asset Pricing
Author: Monika PiazzesiEssays on Money, Asset Prices and Liquidity Premia
Author: Seungduck LeePublisher:
ISBN: 9780355150650
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation analyzes the determinants of asset prices and the effect of monetary policy on not only asset prices, but also on other macroeconomic outcomes such as asset market trade volume and welfare in an environment with search frictions. The analysis in such an environment helps to examine an important component of determining asset prices: liquidity, which is assets' ability to facilitate transactions. Hence, the dissertation particularly examines the effect of monetary policy on asset prices that the traditional asset pricing models without search frictions may be missing, and also explain some phenomena which are often considered abnormal in macroeconomics and international macroeconomics such as negative nominal yields and the Uncovered Interest Parity puzzle. The dissertation consists of three stand-alone papers and I provide their abstracts as follows. The first chapter is "Money, Asset Prices and the Liquidity Premium". This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the market value of the liquidity services that financial assets provide, known as the liquidity premium. Money supply and nominal interest rates have positive effects on the liquidity premium, but asset supply has a negative effect. This implies that liquid financial assets aresubstantive substitutes for money, and that the opportunity cost of holding money plays a key role in explaining variation in the liquidity premium and thus in asset prices. The higher cost of holding money due to higher money growth rates leads to a higher liquidity premium. My empirical analysis with U.S. Treasury data over the period from 1946 and 2008 confirms the theoretical predictions. The theory also suggests that the liquidity properties of assets can cause negative nominal yields when the cost of holding money is low and liquid assets are scarce. I present empirical findings in the U.S. and Switzerland to support this prediction. The second chapter is a joint paper with Kuk Mo Jung, titled "A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle". In this paper, a new monetary theory is set out to resolve the "Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)" Puzzle. It explores the possibility that liquidity properties of money and nominal bonds can account for the puzzle. A key concept in our model is that nominal bondscarry liquidity premia due to their medium of exchange role as either collateral or a means of payment. In this framework, no-arbitrage ensures a positive comovement of real return on money and nominal bonds. Thus, when inflation in one country becomes relatively lower, i.e., real return on this currency is relatively higher, its nominal bonds should also yield higher real return. We show that their nominal returns can also become higher under the economic environment where collateral pledgeability and/or liquidity of nominal bonds and/or collateralized credit based transactions are relatively bigger. Since a currency with lower inflation is expected to appreciate, the high interest currency does indeed appreciate in this case, i.e., the UIP puzzle is no longer an anomaly in our model. Our liquidity based theory can in fact help understanding many empirical observations that risk based explanations find difficult to reconcile with. The third chapter is joint work with Athanasios Geromichalos, Jiwon Lee, and Keita Oikawa, titled "Over-the-Counter Trade and the Value of Assets as Collateral" and was published in Economic Theory in 2016. We study asset pricing within a general equilibrium model where unsecured credit is ruled out, and a real asset helps agents carry out mutually benecial transactions by serving as collateral. A unique feature of our model is that the agent who provides the loan might have a low valuation for the collateral asset. Nevertheless, the lender rationally chooses to accept the collateral because she can access a secondary asset market where she can sell the asset. Following a recent strand of the finance literature, based on the influential work of Duffie, Garleanu, and Pedersen (2005), we model this secondary asset market as an over-the-counter market characterized by search and bargaining frictions. We study how the asset's property to serve as collateral affects its equilibrium price, and how the asset price and the economy's welfare are affected by the degree of liquidity in the secondary asset market.
Essays on Asset Pricing, Debt Valuation, and Macroeconomics
Author: Ram Sai YamarthyPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 260
Book Description
My dissertation consists of three chapters which examine topics at the intersection of financial markets and macroeconomics. Two of the sections relate to the valuation of U.S. Treasury and corporate debt while the third understands the role of banking frictions on equity markets.More specifically, the first chapter asks the question, what is the role of monetary policy fluctuations for the macroeconomy and bond markets? To answer this question we design a novel asset-pricing framework which incorporates a time-varying Taylor rule for monetary policy, macroeconomic factors, and risk pricing restrictions from investor preferences. By estimating the model using U.S. term structure data, we find that monetary policy fluctuations significantly impact inflation uncertainty and bond risk exposures, but do not have a sizable effect on the first moments of macroeconomic variables. Monetary policy fluctuations contribute about 20% to the variation in bond risk premia. Models with frictions in financial contracts have been shown to create persistence effects in macroeconomic fluctuations. These persistent risks can then generate large risk premia in asset markets. Accordingly, in the second chapter, we test the ability that a particular friction, Costly State Verification (CSV), has to generate empirically plausible risk exposures in equity markets, when household investors have recursive preferences and shocks occur in the growth rate of productivity. After embedding these mechanisms into a macroeconomic model with financial intermediation, we find that the CSV friction is negligible in realistically augmenting the equity risk premium. While the friction slows the speed of capital investment, its contribution to asset markets is insignificant. The third chapter examines how firms manage debt maturity in the presence of investment opportunities. I document empirically that debt maturity tradeoffs play an important role in determining economic fluctuations and asset prices. I show at aggregate and firm levels that corporations lengthen their average maturity of debt when output and investment rates are larger. To explain these findings, I construct an economic model where firms simultaneously choose investment, short, and long-term debt. In equilibrium, long-term debt is more costly than short-term debt and is only used when investment opportunities present themselves in peaks of the business cycle.
Three Essays on Asset Prices, Credit Risk, and Monetary Policy
Author: 張天惠Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays
Author: Anastasios G MalliarisPublisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814480045
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 373
Book Description
The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.