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Author: Ms Julia Hodgson Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd. ISBN: 1409460002 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
When a venture seems to be faltering, do you persist and hope that things will get better or do you cut your losses? This may be one of the most important decisions business or project owners may ever have to make. Persistence involves the risk of throwing good money (or resources) after bad, but owners may feel they have too much invested to quit now. Escalation in Decision-Making reveals why social scientists believe that owners may not respond rationally to such predicaments. Instead of exiting when the odds are clearly stacked against them, they re-invest and end up compounding their losses – a phenomenon known as escalation of commitment. The authors, Helga Drummond and Julia Hodgson, also introduce the concept of entrapment, a variation whereby decision-makers passively drift towards insolvency as the cost of changing direction becomes too high. So: · what drives escalation? · why do some owners quit whilst others persist until the bailiffs arrive? · what can we learn from owners' mistakes? · what makes newcomers believe they can succeed where others are conspicuously failing? These questions of behavioural economics are answered using a narrative that analyses decisions made by market traders facing economic extinction. Many highly successful entrepreneurs started their careers in markets - it was once an almost guaranteed route to prosperity - now market traders are struggling to survive. Although the market traders featured are small entrepreneurs, the ubiquitous phenomenon of escalation at the heart of these stories is widely relevant to practitioners such as project managers in large organizations and to those responsible for managing risk in many situations. Rich in case studies involving real business decisions and dilemmas, Escalation in Decision-Making provides an accessible introduction to the application of theory against a background of growing interest in behavioural economics, now being researched and taught in universities and increasingly attracting the attention of business practitioners.
Author: Helga Drummond Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1317141695 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 215
Book Description
When a venture seems to be faltering, do you persist and hope that things will get better or do you cut your losses? This may be one of the most important decisions business or project owners may ever have to make. Persistence involves the risk of throwing good money (or resources) after bad, but owners may feel they have too much invested to quit now. Escalation in Decision-Making reveals why social scientists believe that owners may not respond rationally to such predicaments. Instead of exiting when the odds are clearly stacked against them, they re-invest and end up compounding their losses - a phenomenon known as escalation of commitment. The authors, Helga Drummond and Julia Hodgson, also introduce the concept of entrapment, a variation whereby decision-makers passively drift towards insolvency as the cost of changing direction becomes too high. So: · what drives escalation? · why do some owners quit whilst others persist until the bailiffs arrive? · what can we learn from owners' mistakes? · what makes newcomers believe they can succeed where others are conspicuously failing? These questions of behavioural economics are answered using a narrative that analyses decisions made by market traders facing economic extinction. Many highly successful entrepreneurs started their careers in markets - it was once an almost guaranteed route to prosperity - now market traders are struggling to survive. Although the market traders featured are small entrepreneurs, the ubiquitous phenomenon of escalation at the heart of these stories is widely relevant to practitioners such as project managers in large organizations and to those responsible for managing risk in many situations. Rich in case studies involving real business decisions and dilemmas, Escalation in Decision-Making provides an accessible introduction to the application of theory against a background of growing interest in behavioural economics, now being researched and taught in univ
Author: Ms Julia Hodgson Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd. ISBN: 1409460002 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
When a venture seems to be faltering, do you persist and hope that things will get better or do you cut your losses? This may be one of the most important decisions business or project owners may ever have to make. Persistence involves the risk of throwing good money (or resources) after bad, but owners may feel they have too much invested to quit now. Escalation in Decision-Making reveals why social scientists believe that owners may not respond rationally to such predicaments. Instead of exiting when the odds are clearly stacked against them, they re-invest and end up compounding their losses – a phenomenon known as escalation of commitment. The authors, Helga Drummond and Julia Hodgson, also introduce the concept of entrapment, a variation whereby decision-makers passively drift towards insolvency as the cost of changing direction becomes too high. So: · what drives escalation? · why do some owners quit whilst others persist until the bailiffs arrive? · what can we learn from owners' mistakes? · what makes newcomers believe they can succeed where others are conspicuously failing? These questions of behavioural economics are answered using a narrative that analyses decisions made by market traders facing economic extinction. Many highly successful entrepreneurs started their careers in markets - it was once an almost guaranteed route to prosperity - now market traders are struggling to survive. Although the market traders featured are small entrepreneurs, the ubiquitous phenomenon of escalation at the heart of these stories is widely relevant to practitioners such as project managers in large organizations and to those responsible for managing risk in many situations. Rich in case studies involving real business decisions and dilemmas, Escalation in Decision-Making provides an accessible introduction to the application of theory against a background of growing interest in behavioural economics, now being researched and taught in universities and increasingly attracting the attention of business practitioners.
Author: Helga Drummond Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand ISBN: 9780198289531 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 237
Book Description
Getting organizations going is one thing. Stopping them is another. This book examines how and why organizations become trapped in disastrous decisions. The focal point is Project Taurus, an IT venture commissioned by the London Stock Exchange and supported by numerous City Institutions.Taurus was intended to transform London's antiquated manual share settlement procedures into a state of the art electronic system that would be the envy of the world. The project collapsed after three year's intensive work and investments totalling almost L500 million. This book is an in depth study of escalation in decision making. The author has interviewed a number of people who played a key role and presents a most readable account of what actually happened. At the same time she sets the case in the broader literature of decision making.
Author: Helga Drummond Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118240553 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
A comprehensive look at decision-making practices and what can be done to eradicate errors Designed to help companies in any industry make fewer mistakes, The Economist Guide to Decision Making is an in-depth look at the tools and techniques for preventing errors and improving efficiency. Exploring how and why decisions go awry in the first place; what decision-makers can do to counter the psychological, social, and other forces that can undermine individual judgment and pull organizations off course; and highlighting often overlooked aspects of the science of decision making, the book illustrates how mistakes really happen so that they can be better avoided. Drawing on examples taken from companies around the world, including Motorola, EMI, and the London Stock Exchange, as well as gold mines in South Africa, and food contamination scandals in China, The Economist Guide to Decision Making thoughtfully considers how companies can be more effective and improve their decision-making strategies. Presents new ways for companies to improve their decision-making processes Explains how decision-making works and discusses the tools available for helping reduce the likelihood of errors Draws on examples taken from companies around the globe Decision making can never prevent mistakes entirely, but a better understanding of how to improve practices and processes is invaluable for companies looking to increase their overall efficiency. The Economist Guide to Decision Making leads the way.
Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030052524 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 408
Book Description
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Author: Claes Wohlin Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9783642303494 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book contains the refereed proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Agile Software Development, XP 2012, held in Malmö, Sweden, in May 2012. In the last decade, we have seen agile and lean software development strongly influence the way software is developed. Agile and lean software development has moved from being a way of working for a number of pioneers to becoming, more or less, the expected way of developing software in industry. The topics covered by the selected full papers include general aspects of agility, agile teams, studies related to the release and maintenance of software, and research on specific practices in agile and lean software development. They are complemented by four short papers capturing additional aspects of agile and lean projects.
Author: P.Stuart Robinson Publisher: I.B. Tauris ISBN: 9781860640643 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 216
Book Description
Studies of crisis generally focus on the extraordinary stresses and strains impeding effective decision-making. This book suggests that poor decision-making is less important than the narrowing of political feasible options. The character of a crisis issue can unleash powerful domestic political forces which push leaders towards confrontation. Their military signals of resolve must be explained and justified in terms of the issue at stake in the dispute. How such justification strengthens national resolve depends on how that issue resonates with national culture. The author treats leaders as political role players with more or less confrontational obligations, rather than as disembodied actors able to tackle policy problems as though they were personal ones. The book dissects crisis-decision-making analysis, and explores the political triggers of escalation through a comparative analysis of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, the Middle East crisis of 1973 , the Cyprus crisis of 1974 and the Falklands/Malvinas crisis of 1982.
Author: Kenneth Chelst Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1420075721 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 580
Book Description
Developed from the authors’ longstanding course on decision and risk analysis, Value-Added Decision Making for Managers explores the important interaction between decisions and management action and clarifies the barriers to rational decision making. The authors analyze strengths and weaknesses of the best alternatives, enabling decision makers to improve on these alternatives by adding value and reducing risk. The core of the text addresses decisions that involve selecting the best alternative from diverse choices. The decisions include buying a car, picking a supplier or home contractor, selecting a technology, picking a location for a manufacturing plant or sports stadium, hiring an employee or selecting among job offers, deciding on the size of a sales force, making a late design change, and sourcing to emerging markets. The book also covers more complex decisions arising in negotiations, strategy, and ethics that involve multiple dimensions simultaneously. Numerous activities interspersed throughout the text highlight real-world situations, helping readers see how the concepts presented can be used in their own work environment or personal life. Each chapter also includes discussion questions and references. Web Resource The book’s website at http://ise.wayne.edu/research/decision.php offers tutorials of Logical Decisions software for multi-objective decisions and Precision Tree software for probabilistic decisions. Directions for downloading student versions of the DecisionTools Suite and Logical Decisions software can be found in the appendices. Password-protected PowerPoint presentations for each chapter and solutions to all of the numeric examples are available for instructors.
Author: Ms Julia Hodgson
Author: Helga Drummond
Author: Ms Julia Hodgson
Author: Zur Shapira
Author: Helga Drummond
Author: Helga Drummond
Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Author: Claes Wohlin
Author: David H. Landman
Author: P.Stuart Robinson
Author: Kenneth Chelst