Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures PDF Download

Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262328739
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Book Description
Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262028891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Book Description
Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan

Author: Thijs Van de Graaf
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509530517
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 265

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Book Description
Ever since the Industrial Revolution energy has been a key driver of world politics. From the oil crises of the 1970s to today’s rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, every shift in global energy patterns has important repercussions for international relations. In this new book, Thijs Van de Graaf and Benjamin Sovacool uncover the intricate ways in which our energy systems have shaped global outcomes in four key areas of world politics: security, the economy, the environment and global justice. Moving beyond the narrow geopolitical focus that has dominated much of the discussion on global energy politics, they also deftly trace the connections between energy, environmental politics, and community activism. The authors argue that we are on the cusp of a global energy shift that promises to be no less transformative for the pursuit of wealth and power in world politics than the historical shifts from wood to coal and from coal to oil. This ongoing energy transformation will not only upend the global balance of power; it could also fundamentally transfer political authority away from the nation state, empowering citizens, regions and local communities. Global Energy Politics will be an essential resource for students of the social sciences grappling with the major energy issues of our times.

Author: Manuel Welsch
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128099038
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 355

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Book Description
Europe's Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making looks at the availability and cost of accessing energy and how it significantly affects economic growth and competitiveness in global markets. The results in this book, from a European Commission (EC) financed project by INSIGHT_E, provide an overview of the most recent analyses, focusing on energy markets and their implications for society. Designed to inform European policymaking, elements of this book will be integrated into upcoming EC policies, giving readers invaluable insights into the cost and availability of energy, the effect of price increases affecting vulnerable consumer groups, and current topics of interest to the EC and ongoing energy debate.INSIGHT_E provides decision-makers with unbiased policy advice and insights on the latest developments, including an assessment of their potential impact. - Presents answers to strategic questions posed by the European Commission - Coherently assesses the energy transition, from policies to energy supply, markets, system requirements, and consumer needs - Informed the EC "Clean Energy for All Europeans" package from end of 2016, e.g., regarding aspects of energy poverty - Endorsed by thought leaders from within and outside of Europe, including utilities, energy agencies, research institutes, journal editors, think tanks, and the European Commission

Author: Manfred Hafner
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030390667
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 398

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Book Description
The world is currently undergoing an historic energy transition, driven by increasingly stringent decarbonisation policies and rapid advances in low-carbon technologies. The large-scale shift to low-carbon energy is disrupting the global energy system, impacting whole economies, and changing the political dynamics within and between countries. This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. The first part of the book addresses the geopolitical implications in the world’s main energy-producing and energy-consuming regions, while the second presents in-depth case studies on selected issues, ranging from the geopolitics of renewable energy, to the mineral foundations of the global energy transformation, to governance issues in connection with the changing global energy order. Given its scope, the book will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations, as well as to professionals working in the energy industry.

Author: Sarah O. Ladislaw
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442228369
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 65

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Book Description
This report evaluates the energy and geopolitical shifts that have arisen from the production of shale gas and light tight oil in the United States. It begins by assessing how much the unconventional energy trend has already impacted energy, geopolitics, and national security. The report then posits several possible energy futures that could emerge from the unconventionals revolution. Finally, it offers views on the major geostrategic question: how will the United States seek to utilize this, so far, domestic resource trend, and given the range of potential future energy outcomes, what might the geopolitical and national security implications be. This report pairs with three background reports, all available from Rowman & Littlefield: New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 1: Energy Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 2: Geopolitical and National Security Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 3: Scenarios, Strategies, and Pathways

Author: Amy Myers Jaffe
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231551843
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374

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Book Description
Disruptive digital technologies are poised to reshape world energy markets. A new wave of industrial innovation, driven by the convergence of automation, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics, is remaking energy and transportation systems in ways that could someday end the age of oil. What are the consequences—not only for the environment and for daily life but also for geopolitics and the international order? Amy Myers Jaffe provides an expert look at the promises and challenges of the future of energy, highlighting what the United States needs to do to maintain its global influence in a post-oil era. She surveys new advances coming to market in on-demand travel services, automation, logistics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and 3-D printing and explores how this rapid pace of innovation is altering international security dynamics in fundamental ways. As the United States vacillates politically about its energy trajectory, China is proactively striving to become the global frontrunner in a full-scale global energy transformation. In order to maintain its leadership role, Jaffe argues, the United States must embrace the digital revolution and foster American achievement. Bringing together analyses of technological innovation, energy policy, and geopolitics, Energy’s Digital Future gives indispensable insight into the path the United States will need to pursue to ensure its lasting economic competitiveness and national security in a new energy age.

Author: Daniel Scholten
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319678558
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 347

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Book Description
Renewables are a game changer for interstate energy relations. Their abundance and intermittency, possibilities for decentral generation and use of rare earth materials, and generally electric nature of transportation make them very different from fossil fuels. What do these geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems imply for infrastructure topology and operations, business models, and energy markets? What are the consequences for the strategic realities and policy considerations of producer, consumer, and transit countries and energy-related patterns of cooperation and conflict between them? Who are the winners and losers? The Geopolitics of Renewables is the first in-depth exploration of the implications for interstate energy relations of a transition towards renewable energy. Fifteen international scholars combine insights from several disciplines - international relations, geopolitics, energy security, renewable energy technology, economics, sustainability transitions, and energy policy - to establish a comprehensive overview and understanding of the emerging energy game. Focus is on contemporary developments and how they may shape the coming decades on three levels of analysis: · The emerging global energy game; winners and losers · Regional and bilateral energy relations of established and rising powers · Infrastructure developments and governance responses The book is recommended for academics and policy makers. It offers a novel analytical framework that moves from geography and technology to economics and politics to investigate the geopolitical implications of renewable energy and provides practical illustrations and policy recommendations related to specific countries and regions such as the US, EU, China, India, OPEC, and Russia

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: Frank A. Verrastro
Publisher: Center for Strategic & International Studies
ISBN: 9780892065929
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
For a variety of reasons -- population growth, development, economics, investment and infrastructure needs, geopolitics, policy/governance, and the expected impacts of climate change, to name but a few -- the current global energy system is unsustainable in its present form. But in the absence of replacement technologies and clean energy forms that are both scalable and affordable, conventional sources of energy and related infrastructure need to remain robust for decades to come, even as policymakers undertake efforts to transform the energy system. This book identifies and examines the relevant drivers that are likely to dictate future trends in energy consumption and fuel choices in the context of a shifting geopolitical landscape, taking into account the attendant economic, foreign policy, energy security, and environmental consequences and priorities. Projecting out to 2035, the report looks at petroleum, coal, renewables, nuclear energy, and natural gas, plus what the authors term the "game changer"--Climate change. The authors believe that managing the transition to a new energy future will be one of the greatest challenges that the global community will face in the coming decades. Contrary to fashionable political rhetoric, such a transformation is likely to be irregular, costly, and at times painful, but inevitably it will and must be done.