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Author: Rafal Weron Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470059990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 192
Book Description
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Author: Rafal Weron Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470059990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 192
Book Description
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Author: Kevin Berk Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3658086696 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 123
Book Description
The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.
Author: Adela Maria Bolet Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 0429711468 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
Although the energy headlines of 1985 proclaim the waning of OPEC, the collapse of oil prices, and the demise of the nuclear power industry, few policy analysts are examining the dynamic challenges and opportunities that may confront the electric power industry during the remainder of this century. In this pioneering work, Adela Maria Bolet attempts to do exactly this, namely, to reconcile the differences among forecasters as to the future of electricity demand in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.
Author: John Sterman Publisher: Legare Street Press ISBN: 9781019952344 Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
In this pioneering book, John Sterman presents a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the history of energy demand forecasting and the ways in which these forecasts have shaped energy policy and practice. Drawing on a range of social and natural science disciplines, Sterman argues for a more sophisticated and nuanced approach to energy forecasting that takes into account the complex and interdependent factors that drive energy demand. This book would be of interest to energy policy analysts, economists, and anyone interested in the science of decision-making under uncertainty. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Author: Frédéric Magoules Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1848214227 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 186
Book Description
The energy consumption of a building has, in recent years, become a determining factor during its design and construction. With carbon footprints being a growing issue, it is important that buildings be optimized for energy conservation and CO2 reduction. This book therefore presents AI models and optimization techniques related to this application. The authors start with a review of recent models for the prediction of building energy consumption: engineering methods, statistical methods, artificial intelligence methods, ANNs and SVMs in particular. The book then focuses on SVMs, by first applying them to building energy consumption, then presenting the principles and various extensions, and SVR. The authors then move on to RDP, which they use to determine building energy faults through simulation experiments before presenting SVR model reduction methods and the benefits of parallel computing. The book then closes by presenting some of the current research and advancements in the field.
Author: Ravinesh Deo Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 012817773X Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 553
Book Description
Predictive Modeling for Energy Management and Power Systems Engineering introduces readers to the cutting-edge use of big data and large computational infrastructures in energy demand estimation and power management systems. The book supports engineers and scientists who seek to become familiar with advanced optimization techniques for power systems designs, optimization techniques and algorithms for consumer power management, and potential applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence in this field. The book provides modeling theory in an easy-to-read format, verified with on-site models and case studies for specific geographic regions and complex consumer markets. - Presents advanced optimization techniques to improve existing energy demand system - Provides data-analytic models and their practical relevance in proven case studies - Explores novel developments in machine-learning and artificial intelligence applied in energy management - Provides modeling theory in an easy-to-read format
Author: Rafal Weron
Author: Rafal Weron
Author: Mathematical Sciences Northwest, inc
Author: Mathematical Sciences Northwest, inc
Author: Northwest Energy Policy Project
Author: Kevin Berk
Author: Stanford University. Energy Modeling Forum
Author: Adela Maria Bolet
Author: John Sterman
Author: Frédéric Magoules
Author: Ravinesh Deo