Author: W. Allen Spivey
Publisher: A E I Press
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 92
Book Description
Monograph on current econometric models used in economic forecasting and economic policy assessment - presents the methodology of linear and nonlinear simulation models, and includes a statistical analysis of forecast errors of major econometric models. Bibliography pp. 73 to 77, graphs and statistical tables.
Econometric Model Performance in Forecasting and Policy Assessment
Author: W. Allen Spivey
Publisher: A E I Press
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 92
Book Description
Monograph on current econometric models used in economic forecasting and economic policy assessment - presents the methodology of linear and nonlinear simulation models, and includes a statistical analysis of forecast errors of major econometric models. Bibliography pp. 73 to 77, graphs and statistical tables.
Publisher: A E I Press
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 92
Book Description
Monograph on current econometric models used in economic forecasting and economic policy assessment - presents the methodology of linear and nonlinear simulation models, and includes a statistical analysis of forecast errors of major econometric models. Bibliography pp. 73 to 77, graphs and statistical tables.
Evaluation of Econometric Models
Author: Jan Kmenta
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483267342
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 425
Book Description
Evaluation of Econometric Models presents approaches to assessing and enhancing the progress of applied economic research. This book discusses the problems and issues in evaluating econometric models, use of exploratory methods in economic analysis, and model construction and evaluation when theoretical knowledge is scarce. The data analysis by partial least squares, prediction analysis of economic models, and aggregation and disaggregation of nonlinear equations are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the comparison of econometric models by optimal control techniques, role of time series analysis in econometric model evaluation, and hypothesis testing in spectral regression. Other topics include the relevance of laboratory experiments to testing resource allocation theory and token economy and animal models for the experimental analysis of economic behavior. This publication is intended for students and researchers interested in evaluating econometric models.
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483267342
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 425
Book Description
Evaluation of Econometric Models presents approaches to assessing and enhancing the progress of applied economic research. This book discusses the problems and issues in evaluating econometric models, use of exploratory methods in economic analysis, and model construction and evaluation when theoretical knowledge is scarce. The data analysis by partial least squares, prediction analysis of economic models, and aggregation and disaggregation of nonlinear equations are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the comparison of econometric models by optimal control techniques, role of time series analysis in econometric model evaluation, and hypothesis testing in spectral regression. Other topics include the relevance of laboratory experiments to testing resource allocation theory and token economy and animal models for the experimental analysis of economic behavior. This publication is intended for students and researchers interested in evaluating econometric models.
Econometric Model Performance
Author: Lawrence R. Klein
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press
ISBN: 1512803561
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
Book Description
Models of the American economy exist in government, research institutes, universities, and private corporations. Given the proliferation, it is wise to take stock because these models come from diverse sources and describe different conditions from alternative points of view. They could be saying different things about the economy. The high-level comparative studies in this volume, gathered from several issues of the International Economic Review, with a substantive introduction and the addition of more comparative material, evaluate the performance of eleven models of the American economy: the Wharton Mark Ill Model; Brookings Model; Hickman-Coen Annual Model; Liu-Hwa Monthly Model; Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Model; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Model; Michigan Quarterly Econometric (MOEM) Model; Wharton Annual and Industry Model; Anticipation Version of the Wharton Mark Ill Model/Fair Model; U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA) Model. Each of the proprietors or builders of these models describes his own system in his own words. These studies come closer than ever before to standardizing model operations for testing purposes. Some of the models are monthly, while others are annual. but the quarterly unit of time is the most frequent. Some are demand oriented, others are supply oriented, and focus on the input-output sectors of the economy. Some use only observed. objective data; others use subjective. anticipatory data. Both large and small models are included. In spite of the diversity, the contributors have cooperated to trace the differences between their models to root causes and to report jointly the results of their research. There are also some general papers that look at model performance from outside the CEME group.
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press
ISBN: 1512803561
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
Book Description
Models of the American economy exist in government, research institutes, universities, and private corporations. Given the proliferation, it is wise to take stock because these models come from diverse sources and describe different conditions from alternative points of view. They could be saying different things about the economy. The high-level comparative studies in this volume, gathered from several issues of the International Economic Review, with a substantive introduction and the addition of more comparative material, evaluate the performance of eleven models of the American economy: the Wharton Mark Ill Model; Brookings Model; Hickman-Coen Annual Model; Liu-Hwa Monthly Model; Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Model; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Model; Michigan Quarterly Econometric (MOEM) Model; Wharton Annual and Industry Model; Anticipation Version of the Wharton Mark Ill Model/Fair Model; U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA) Model. Each of the proprietors or builders of these models describes his own system in his own words. These studies come closer than ever before to standardizing model operations for testing purposes. Some of the models are monthly, while others are annual. but the quarterly unit of time is the most frequent. Some are demand oriented, others are supply oriented, and focus on the input-output sectors of the economy. Some use only observed. objective data; others use subjective. anticipatory data. Both large and small models are included. In spite of the diversity, the contributors have cooperated to trace the differences between their models to root causes and to report jointly the results of their research. There are also some general papers that look at model performance from outside the CEME group.
Empirical Modeling in Economics
Author: Clive W. J. Granger
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521778251
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Book Description
Lucid account of the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521778251
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Book Description
Lucid account of the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model.
Surveying Recent Econometric Forecasting Performance
Author: W. Allen Spivey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
Forecasting
Author: William Ascher
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
Book Description
Abstract: Forecasting is a new, and still changing field. One of the most important factors in the relationships between method and result is that core assumptions are more important than sophisticated techniques; improved technique does not compensate for faulty assumptions. Forecasting is still an art and one that is difficult to master. The uses of forecasting can be so varied, and applied to so many different disciplines, that it's worth making the effort. The appraisal of forecasts and the choice of the "most likely" from a group focusing on the same area is also a type of forecasting.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
Book Description
Abstract: Forecasting is a new, and still changing field. One of the most important factors in the relationships between method and result is that core assumptions are more important than sophisticated techniques; improved technique does not compensate for faulty assumptions. Forecasting is still an art and one that is difficult to master. The uses of forecasting can be so varied, and applied to so many different disciplines, that it's worth making the effort. The appraisal of forecasts and the choice of the "most likely" from a group focusing on the same area is also a type of forecasting.
Prediction or Prophecy?
Author: Gregor Betz
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3835090534
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 287
Book Description
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3835090534
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 287
Book Description
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Two Essays on Econometric Forecasting with an Econometric Model
Author: A. C. Fenwick
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Book Description
Economic Forecasting
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 562
Book Description
This is a collection of over 50 articles on economic forecasting. Topics cover: macroeconomic forecasting and policy-making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; and forecasting using surveys.
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 562
Book Description
This is a collection of over 50 articles on economic forecasting. Topics cover: macroeconomic forecasting and policy-making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; and forecasting using surveys.
Socioeconomic Forecasting
Author: Yingge Xiong
Publisher: Purdue University Press
ISBN: 9781622602223
Category : Transportation
Languages : en
Pages : 56
Book Description
The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI PI+, like its competitors, is vulnerable to the trends contained in the historical data it uses, especially recent trends. After the most recent periodic update in data, the performance of the REMI PI+ model improved, i.e., it produced long-term forecasts that were more credible. Zonal-level population and employment forecasts for direct input to the Indiana Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) can be achieved by applying disaggregation regression methods. IU's Center for Econometric Model Research (CEMR) model is also a sound forecasting model. Because of the knowledge of in-state economists, the CEMR-IBRC model could provide forecasts of the Indiana economy that reflect characteristics not known to out-of-state forecasters. The researchers also examined economic impact analysis models that are possible alternatives to REMI PI+. Acquiring a new economic impact analysis package does not seem necessary for INDOT, if REMI forecasts can be adjusted to (a) accommodate recent and reasonable expected trends in the Indiana economy, and (b) meet the geographic (TAZ) needs of the ISTDM. MCIBAS -- which is currently used by INDOT -- is a good hybrid system to use in the economic impacts analysis of transportation projects. IU's CEMR is capable of conducting economic impact analyses, with local knowledge of the Indiana economy, at a cost lower than REMI's. However, INDOT would have to decide whether these potential advantages justify changing the present relationship with REMI. In cases where the credibility of data, forecasts, and/or impact analyses needs to be verified, an INDOT version of an expert panel along the lines of Michigan's Transportation Technical Committee could be convened.
Publisher: Purdue University Press
ISBN: 9781622602223
Category : Transportation
Languages : en
Pages : 56
Book Description
The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI PI+, like its competitors, is vulnerable to the trends contained in the historical data it uses, especially recent trends. After the most recent periodic update in data, the performance of the REMI PI+ model improved, i.e., it produced long-term forecasts that were more credible. Zonal-level population and employment forecasts for direct input to the Indiana Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) can be achieved by applying disaggregation regression methods. IU's Center for Econometric Model Research (CEMR) model is also a sound forecasting model. Because of the knowledge of in-state economists, the CEMR-IBRC model could provide forecasts of the Indiana economy that reflect characteristics not known to out-of-state forecasters. The researchers also examined economic impact analysis models that are possible alternatives to REMI PI+. Acquiring a new economic impact analysis package does not seem necessary for INDOT, if REMI forecasts can be adjusted to (a) accommodate recent and reasonable expected trends in the Indiana economy, and (b) meet the geographic (TAZ) needs of the ISTDM. MCIBAS -- which is currently used by INDOT -- is a good hybrid system to use in the economic impacts analysis of transportation projects. IU's CEMR is capable of conducting economic impact analyses, with local knowledge of the Indiana economy, at a cost lower than REMI's. However, INDOT would have to decide whether these potential advantages justify changing the present relationship with REMI. In cases where the credibility of data, forecasts, and/or impact analyses needs to be verified, an INDOT version of an expert panel along the lines of Michigan's Transportation Technical Committee could be convened.