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Author: Sebastian Diemer Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag) ISBN: 395489632X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).
Author: Sebastian Diemer Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag) ISBN: 395489632X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Crown ISBN: 080413670X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: James Lighthill Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9814499447 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 396
Book Description
The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such “short-term” prediction achievable by the VAN approach (or by any other)? This book is an objective collection of the arguments for — and the counterarguments against — that approach, intended to help scientific readers arrive at their own answers to this important question, as well as to others (including that of VAN's “export” potential).
Author: Nicolae Sfetcu Publisher: Nicolae Sfetcu ISBN: Category : Games & Activities Languages : en Pages : 975
Book Description
Gambling as a betting action – wagering money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money or material goods. A guide about what is gambling (with a special section for online gambling), casino games with both beatable casino games (poker , blackjack, video poker with progressive jackpot, pai gow poker, sports betting, horse racing – parimutuel, slot machines and other gambling machines) and unbeatable casino games (baccarat, craps, roulette, keno, casino war, faro, pachinko, sic bo, let it ride, 3-card poker, 4-card poker, red dog, Caribbean stud poker, etc.), and non-casino gambling games (bingo, lottery, mahjong, backgammon, bridge, etc.). Fixed-odds gambling in sports is also present in this book with horse racing, greyhound racing, football (particularly association football, American football and rugby), golf, tennis, cricket, baseball, basketball, ice hockey, snooker, motor sports, boxing, darts, cross-country skiing and biathlon. Please, don’t forget to take a look to the legality of the gambling and online gambling, as well as to the articles, warnings and links dedicated to the gambling addiction. Extreme cases of problem gambling may cross over into the realm of mental disorders.
Author: Roger Lee Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3540791876 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 291
Book Description
The 7th IEEE/ACIS Conference and the 2nd IEEE/ACIS Workshop on e-Activity (IWEA 2008) featured researchers from around the world. The conference organizers selected 23 outstanding papers for this volume of Springer’s Studies in Computational Intelligence.
Author: Morgan Housel Publisher: Harriman House Limited ISBN: 085719769X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
Doing well with money isn’t necessarily about what you know. It’s about how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people. Money—investing, personal finance, and business decisions—is typically taught as a math-based field, where data and formulas tell us exactly what to do. But in the real world people don’t make financial decisions on a spreadsheet. They make them at the dinner table, or in a meeting room, where personal history, your own unique view of the world, ego, pride, marketing, and odd incentives are scrambled together. In The Psychology of Money, award-winning author Morgan Housel shares 19 short stories exploring the strange ways people think about money and teaches you how to make better sense of one of life’s most important topics.
Author: Mehmet Odekon Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317475755 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1736
Book Description
This timely and authoritative set explores three centuries of good times and hard times in major economies throughout the world. More than 400 signed articles cover events from Tulipmania during the 1630s to the U.S. federal stimulus package of 2009, and introduce readers to underlying concepts, recurring themes, major institutions, and notable figures. Written in a clear, accessible style, "Booms and Busts" provides vital insight and perspective for students, teachers, librarians, and the general public - anyone interested in understanding the historical precedents, causes, and effects of the global economic crisis. Special features include a chronology of major booms and busts through history, a glossary of economic terms, a guide to further research, an appendix of primary documents, a topic finder, and a comprehensive index. It features 1,050 pages; three volumes; 8-1/2" X 11"; topic finder; photos; chronology; glossary; primary documents; bibliography; and, index.
Author: P. K. Vasudev Publisher: Sagar Publications ISBN: Category : Body, Mind & Spirit Languages : en Pages : 722
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive and cogent astrological methodology to lend meaningful support to the speculators and investors in stock markets for taking timely and prudent decisions to accentuate gains and to avert losses. It intends to cover the fundamental and potent astro-combinations allied to money matters. For those who dabble in stock and bullion markets, the efficacy of Sarvatobhadra Chakra an ancient tool, has been aptly demonstrated. Besides, the book deals with the entire range of business astrology and presents a compact reading ina lucid form.
Author: Jurgen T. Rehm Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 1483286924 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 187
Book Description
This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, election predictions and energy consumption forecasts. The book goes beyond the individual perspective and deals with technological problems and the social consequences of predictions. The reader is given a vivid overview for judgemental forecasting with special emphasis on practical problems.
Author: Sebastian Diemer
Author: Sebastian Diemer
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: James Lighthill
Author: Nicolae Sfetcu
Author: Roger Lee
Author: Morgan Housel
Author: Mehmet Odekon
Author: 
Author: P. K. Vasudev
Author: Jurgen T. Rehm