Do Trading Partners Still Matter for Nigeria's Growth? A Contribution to the Debateon Decoupling and Spillovers PDF Download

Author: Kingsley I. Obiora
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451873654
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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Book Description
Should policymakers still be concerned about economic growth in trading partners? Have developing and emerging market countries decoupled from the US enough to grow despite significant recession in the US? Using VAR models, this paper addresses these questions for Nigeria in the context of the global crisis. The results seem to debunk the "decoupling theory" and suggest there are still significant spillovers from Nigeria's main trading partners, including the US, with trade and commodity price linkages being the dominant transmission channels. Given the sharp fall in both trade financing and commodity prices in aftermath of the crisis, these results provide some explanation to the realization of adverse second-round effects in Nigeria.

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Languages : en
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Author: Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475559151
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to systematically affect growth developments in BLNS countries as a group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto the smaller economies.

Author: Department of Economic & Social Affairs
Publisher: United Nations Publications
ISBN: 9789211045871
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 295

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This book presents an overview of the key debates that took place during the Economic and Social Council meetings at the 2007 High-level Segment, at which ECOSOC organized its first biennial Development Cooperation Forum. The discussions also revolved around the theme of the second Annual Ministerial Review, "Implementing the internationally agreed goals and commitments in regard to sustainable development."--P. 4 of cover.

Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184

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The benefits of open markets are tangible. In the last decade, countries that have been more open to trade and investment have achieved double the average annual growth of more closed economies. More individuals, firms and nations than ever before depend on the gains from trade and investment liberalisation. Yet anxiety about the effects of greater market integration remains. It is essential for long-term world prosperity that countries' commitment to trade and investment liberalisation be sustained. To be credible, that commitment must be rooted in and enjoy broad public support and understanding. This makes it all the more important to communicate what trade and investment liberalisation can and cannot do and be held responsible for. Trade and investment liberalisation is not painless. It should not be viewed as a cure-all nor presented as an end in itself. It is, however, an essential component of any coherent set of policies aimed at helping societies adjust to - and take advantage of - technology-driven transformations whose pace and depth are unprecedented. The stakes are high. This book examines the various channels through which open markets deliver considerable benefits to societies and their citizens; recalls the real pocket-book costs of protectionism; and addresses the full range of concerns that feature prominently in ongoing discussions over the effects of market liberalisation on employment, income distribution, environmental protection and national sovereignty. A central message of this book is that liberalisation forms part of the solution to the concerns of citizens, rather than being their root cause. The book's comprehensive treatment of the ins and outs of trade and investment liberalisation should make an important contribution to the public debate. It is essential reading for public officials, business leaders and private citizens who wish to take an active part in it.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 158906688X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 277

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The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost 1⁄2 percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 43⁄4 percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816034
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288

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This edition of the biennial Poverty and Shared Prosperity report brings sobering news. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its associated economic crisis, compounded by the effects of armed conflict and climate change, are reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The fight to end poverty has suffered its worst setback in decades after more than 20 years of progress. The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, already at risk before the pandemic, is now beyond reach in the absence of swift, significant, and sustained action, and the objective of advancing shared prosperity—raising the incomes of the poorest 40 percent in each country—will be much more difficult. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune presents new estimates of COVID-19's impacts on global poverty and shared prosperity. Harnessing fresh data from frontline surveys and economic simulations, it shows that pandemic-related job losses and deprivation worldwide are hitting already poor and vulnerable people hard, while also shifting the profile of global poverty to include millions of 'new poor.' Original analysis included in the report shows that the new poor are more urban, better educated, and less likely to work in agriculture than those living in extreme poverty before COVID-19. It also gives new estimates of the impact of conflict and climate change, and how they overlap. These results are important for targeting policies to safeguard lives and livelihoods. It shows how some countries are acting to reverse the crisis, protect those most vulnerable, and promote a resilient recovery. These findings call for urgent action. If the global response fails the world's poorest and most vulnerable people now, the losses they have experienced to date will be minimal compared with what lies ahead. Success over the long term will require much more than stopping COVID-19. As efforts to curb the disease and its economic fallout intensify, the interrupted development agenda in low- and middle-income countries must be put back on track. Recovering from today's reversals of fortune requires tackling the economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 with a commitment proportional to the crisis itself. In doing so, countries can also plant the seeds for dealing with the long-term development challenges of promoting inclusive growth, capital accumulation, and risk prevention—particularly the risks of conflict and climate change.

Author: Stephane Hallegatte
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464806748
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227

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Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484348834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 657

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Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Author: Jose Guilherme Reis
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821389386
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 221

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This toolkit provides a framework, guidelines, and practical tools for conducting an analysis of a country's trade competitiveness in terms of growth and share performance, diversification, and quality.