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Author: Douglas Laxton Publisher: ISBN: Category : Deflation (Finance) Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions on whether the zero interest floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two-country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and startling effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. More open economies hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. Deflationary supply shocks have different implications according to whether they are concentrated in the tradables rather than the nontradables sector. Price-level-path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding.
Author: Douglas Laxton Publisher: ISBN: Category : Deflation (Finance) Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions on whether the zero interest floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two-country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy vis-a-vis the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and startling effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. More open economies hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. Deflationary supply shocks have different implications according to whether they are concentrated in the tradables rather than the nontradables sector. Price-level-path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding.
Author: Richard C. K. Burdekin Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139456229 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 385
Book Description
This book was originally published in 2004. Fears of deflation seemed nothing more than a relic of the Great Depression. However, beginning in the 1990s, persistently falling consumer prices have emerged in Japan, China and elsewhere. Deflation is also a distinct possibility in some of the major European area economies, especially Germany, and emerged as a concern of the US Federal Reserve in 2003. Deflation may be worse than inflation not only because the real burden of debt rises but also because firms would confront rising real wages in a world where nominal wage rigidity prevails. This volume explores some key themes regarding deflation including: (i) how economic agents and policy makers have responded to deflation, (ii) the links between monetary policy, goods price movements, and asset price movements, (iii) the impact of deflation under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes, and (iv) stock market reactions to deflation.
Author: Mr.Jörg Decressin Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589067290 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper discusses deflation risks and policy options. The paper highlights that slumping collateral values have exacerbated the credit crunch, and monetary policy has lost effectiveness in stabilizing output. A model-based analysis for the G3 economies (United States, euro area, and Japan) also suggests that, on the assumption that the financial distress is gradually resolved, the most likely outcome is that the global economy will stay clear of sustained deflation. However, if financial sector problems are not remedied or further shocks add to current stresses, there is a significant probability of more negative deflationary outcomes, with a deeper and more prolonged recession. The chapter underscores the crucial role of financial sector policies in remedying deflationary pressures directly and indirectly, by enhancing the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. Monetary policy can help in some areas; however, supportive fiscal policies are likely to be needed to prevent a deflationary episode becoming entrenched. Monetary policy measures include operating in a broad range of financial markets to relieve credit rationing, and to lower risk spreads and term premiums. Finally, to reinforce long-run inflation expectations, central bank communications should emphasize the commitment to return inflation to objectives with all due speed.
Author: Chris Farrell Publisher: Harper Collins ISBN: 0060576456 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 246
Book Description
Deflation is one of the most feared terms in economics. It immediately conjures visions of abandoned farms and idle factories, streams of unemployed workers standing in breadlines. So when Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan started talking openly in 2003 about his fears of deflation, it sent waves of shock through the business press and the public. Many feared that the United States was entering a period of prolonged slump after a pronounced boom, much like Japan experienced throughout the 1990s. Others worried that a sustained fall in prices would have a cataclysmic impact on our nation's overhang of consumer debt. Yet another camp blamed low-wage manufacturing countries like China and high-volume retailers like Wal-Mart for becoming the engines of relentless deflation. In this important new book, Chris Farrell explains that deflation need not presage a collapse. In the process he gives a new way of looking at our economic and our financial futures. More than an introduction to the subject, Farrell points out that deflation has always been a fundamental aspect of the business cycle. For much of the 20th century, deflation had vanished from the economic scene, but its return is no cause for panic. Instead, properly understood, deflation presents opportunities and pitfalls in equal measure for businesses, corporations, the government, and our national economy.
Author: Mr. Taimur Baig Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451932510 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
Deflation can be costly and difficult to anticipate, and concerns of a generalized decline in prices in both industrial and emerging market economies have increased recently. This paper investigates the causes and consequences of deflation, the risk of deflation globally and in individual countries, and policy options. The authors discuss issues related to the measurement, determinants, and costs of deflation and examine previous episodes of deflation. They compute an index of deflation vulnerability, which they apply to the 35 largest industrial and emerging market economies. Finally, the paper offers several policy options for protecting against deflation and for coping with it should it strike.
Author: Mr.Nicolas End Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513539698 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate–growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019.
Author: Douglas Laxton
Author: Douglas Laxton
Author: Richard C. K. Burdekin
Author: Nihon Ginkō. Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies
Author: Mr.Jörg Decressin
Author: Chris Farrell
Author: 
Author: Daniel Leigh
Author: Mr. Taimur Baig
Author: Mr.Nicolas End
Author: George W. Evans