Decision Analysis for Management Judgment PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Decision Analysis for Management Judgment PDF full book. Access full book title Decision Analysis for Management Judgment by Paul Goodwin. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Paul Goodwin Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118740734 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 496
Book Description
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Author: Paul Goodwin Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118740734 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 496
Book Description
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Author: Anca M. Hanea Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030464741 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 503
Book Description
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Author: Gregory S. Parnell Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118515846 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 441
Book Description
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author: Thomas H. Davenport Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press ISBN: 142215811X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.
Author: David C. Skinner Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 376
Book Description
"This book is the most practical and thought-provoking step-by-step guide to making better decisions that is available today! Proven techniques and solid experience are the foundation for this classic text, which was written for the manager and for the decision analysis practitioner!"--
Author: Gideon Keren Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118468392 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 1056
Book Description
A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes
Author: Derek J. Koehler Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470752912 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 680
Book Description
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Author: Igor Linkov Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1439853185 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 206
Book Description
Environmental management is often complicated and multidisciplinary and the issues that arise can be difficult to solve analytically. Often, decision makers take ad hoc approaches, which may result in the ignoring of important stakeholder opinions or decision criteria. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a framework by which these types of decisions can be made but, despite being used effectively in many fields, it is not often used in environmental management. Given the novelty and inherent applicability of this decision making framework to the environmental field, there is a need for more teaching tools for MCDA. In particular, there is a need for a case study based approach to help readers navigate the many MCDA methods and decide how to apply them to a specific case. Through a collection of case studies, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Environmental Applications and Case Studies gives readers the tools to apply cutting-edge MCDA methods to their own environmental projects. It offers an overview of the types of MCDA available and a conceptual framework of how it is applied, with the focus on its applicability for environmental science. Taking an in-depth look at the case of sediment management, the book introduces different steps of MCDA processes—from problem formulation and model development to criteria weighing and alternative scoring. The authors then explore the case using various MCDA methods, which allows readers to see clearly how the methodologies differ and gain a better understanding of the mechanistic operation of the analysis. A series of case studies in nanotechnology collectively demonstrate the application of MCDA in situations of high variability and uncertainty that require the integration of technical information and expert judgment—an area where MCDA clearly shines. The authors describe multiple decisions—from risk classification to value of information analysis to the assessment of potential research and funding investments—that readers may face in dealing with emerging environmental threats. Demonstrating the broad applicability of MCDA methods for different types of cases, the book presents a series of case studies ranging from oyster restoration to oil spill response. In conjunction with these cases, the book also provides corresponding decision models that are implemented by the DECERNS software and allow users to examine the same case using multiple MCDA tools. The DECERNS software and models are available for download at www.crcpress.com. Intended both as a research and teaching tool, this book inspires creative thinking when applying MCDA to complicated environmental issues.
Author: Ahti Salo Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1441999434 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 410
Book Description
Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.
Author: Paul Goodwin
Author: Paul Goodwin
Author: Anca M. Hanea
Author: Gregory S. Parnell
Author: Max H. Bazerman
Author: Thomas H. Davenport
Author: David C. Skinner
Author: Gideon Keren
Author: Derek J. Koehler
Author: Igor Linkov
Author: Ahti Salo