Computational Methods for Population Projections PDF Download

Author: Frederic Claiborne Shorter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic data processing
Languages : en
Pages : 178

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Book Description
Monograph presenting a calculational methodology for computerized preparation of population projections - outlines procedures for the preparation and use of model distributions that reflect changes in demographic factors such as fertility, mortality and migration, etc., and includes a sample application of the system to data for Turkey. Statistical tables.

Author: Frederic C. Shorter
Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub
ISBN: 9781480049574
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 146

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Book Description
"Computational Methods for Population Projections" is a user manual for the FIVFIV population projection software package. This manual was developed to help national governments and local authorities, especially in the developing world, make the projections they need to carry out their planning responsibilities. A second group of users is found in academic and training institutions. For teaching about the growth and structure of human populations, projections can demonstrate specific theorems. Note: The FIVFIV software is not included as part of this manual. While the population projection methodology described in this manual may continue to be of interest, the FIVFIV software, which is referenced throughout this book, is quite obsolete in terms of usability and is no longer supported or distributed. It remains our goal to produce a modern version of the software; however, we cannot currently determine when or if such an updated version may become available.

Author: Frederic C. Shorter
Publisher: HPN Technologies Incorporated
ISBN: 9780878340217
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 128

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Book Description

Author: Stephen P. Ellner
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319288938
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 339

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Book Description
This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in Boxes and Appendices. Self-contained R code which replicates all of the figures and calculations within the text is available to readers on GitHub. Stephen P. Ellner is Horace White Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Cornell University, USA; Dylan Z. Childs is Lecturer and NERC Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences at The University of Sheffield, UK; Mark Rees is Professor in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences at The University of Sheffield, UK.

Author: John Stillwell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048189306
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Book Description
Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

Author: Stanley K. Smith
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 456

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Book Description
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques within each of three classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of technological and methodological changes affecting the production of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another and for interpolating between two projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.

Author: M. Iannelli
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 9780898717488
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 190

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Book Description
Gender-Structured Population Modeling gives a unified presentation of and mathematical framework for modeling population growth by couple formation. It provides an overview of both past and present modeling results. The authors focus on pair formation (marriage) and two-sex models with different forms of the marriage function -- the basis of couple formation -- and discuss which of these forms might make a better choice for a particular population (the United States). The book also provides results on model analysis, gives an up-to-date review of mathematical demography, discusses numerical methods, and puts deterministic modeling of human populations into historical perspective.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Demography
Languages : en
Pages : 53

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Book Description

Author: Alain Bélanger
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319446630
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Book Description
This book is a practical, step-by-step introduction to microsimulation in demography. It shows how to use Modgen, a powerful and free microsimulation platform built by Statistics Canada. The authors' hands-on explanation of model development will help readers make their own. The book teaches how to create and run a simple cohort model with a single fixed-rate event, and builds upon this concept. It introduces how to develop both a single state life table as well as a multiple increment-decrement life table using the tools provided by Modgen. The authors illustrate how to easily upgrade an existing model by adding new modules and new dimensions as determinants of a risk already modeled. The integration of a fertility module and a base population allows the user to bring new actors into the simulation and transform a cohort-based model into a population-based one. The final addition of an international migration module allows the user to accomplish fully open, multi-regional projections. This accessible introduction will be of interest to researchers and students in population studies and other social sciences. It will also appeal to anyone interested in the computational modeling of population dynamics.

Author: Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030424723
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 261

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Book Description
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.