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Author: Bernur Açikgöz Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9789819758852 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book continues the discussion from Volume I and Volume II on economic, fiscal and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis. Such events are often described as Black Swans, a concept introduced by economist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. Since the Great Depression of 1929, the greatest crisis of the 20th century, there has been a second crisis in the 21st century with similar profound effects. Liberalization of international capital movements and trade, the existence of multinational companies, the integration of international markets and financial movements and the country's economies are closely linked. In the 21st century we are living in, with the effect of globalization, we can see that the markets have gradually become a "Global Village"; therefore, an event that occurs in any continent is now affecting all countries, including Turkey, in a very short time. In this third volume, besides the important 21st century crises such as the “Global Financial Crisis” and the “European Debt Crisis” that caused the world economy to buckle under its pressures, the causes and results of the recent economic crises breaking out in Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela, where financial fragility is high and severe financial problems exist, are examined in detail.
Author: Bernur Açikgöz Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9789819758852 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book continues the discussion from Volume I and Volume II on economic, fiscal and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis. Such events are often described as Black Swans, a concept introduced by economist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. Since the Great Depression of 1929, the greatest crisis of the 20th century, there has been a second crisis in the 21st century with similar profound effects. Liberalization of international capital movements and trade, the existence of multinational companies, the integration of international markets and financial movements and the country's economies are closely linked. In the 21st century we are living in, with the effect of globalization, we can see that the markets have gradually become a "Global Village"; therefore, an event that occurs in any continent is now affecting all countries, including Turkey, in a very short time. In this third volume, besides the important 21st century crises such as the “Global Financial Crisis” and the “European Debt Crisis” that caused the world economy to buckle under its pressures, the causes and results of the recent economic crises breaking out in Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela, where financial fragility is high and severe financial problems exist, are examined in detail.
Author: Bernur Açikgöz Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 9811952523 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 103
Book Description
This book presents to the reader the economic, fiscal and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis since the 1600s in chronological order. Such events are often described as Black Swans, a concept introduced by economist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. The first part of the book discusses the crisis models in order to allow the reader to better understand the financial, fiscal and economic crises that are detailed in the following chapters. Each chapter starts with an overview of the crisis in question followed by an analysis of the impact on the affected countries. They go on to highlight the causes of the crisis in question, the fiscal and financial measures employed to recover from it and ends on a description of the post-crisis period. Given the profusion of black swan events that the 21st century has already witnessed, this book would be a valuable read for academics and students of economics as well as practitioners and policy makers.
Author: Bernur Açikgöz Publisher: ISBN: 9789811952531 Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book presents to the reader the economic, fiscal and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis since the 1600s in chronological order. Such events are often described as Black Swans, a concept introduced by economist and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. The first part of the book discusses the crisis models in order to allow the reader to better understand the financial, fiscal and economic crises that are detailed in the following chapters. Each chapter starts with an overview of the crisis in question followed by an analysis of the impact on the affected countries. They go on to highlight the causes of the crisis in question, the fiscal and financial measures employed to recover from it and ends on a description of the post-crisis period. Given the profusion of black swan events that the 21st century has already witnessed, this book would be a valuable read for academics and students of economics as well as practitioners and policy makers. .
Author: Bernur Açıkgöz Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 9819923182 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 168
Book Description
This book continues the discussion from Volume I on economic, fiscal, and financial crises in world history that have had a great impact on the entire world and the fiscal measures taken by governments to combat each crisis. Such events are often described as black swans, a concept introduced by Economist and Risk Analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Fooled By Randomness in 2001, in reference to events that were thought to be impossible but had a huge impact when they did happen. The beginning of this book notes that crises are catastrophic periods when the consequences of economic mistakes made by governments are reflected to the public. Although economic crises are seen as opportunities in some cases, they have created a burden for the people. Some economic crises even triggered the world war. A recent example, Adolf Hitler, was seen as a hope of salvation in Germany due to the Great Depression and was brought to power. The twentieth century, when two great world wars took place on the stage of history, is the witness of major economic crises as well as wars. These crises have caused social and economic paradigm shifts to be experienced much faster and more effectively than the previous centuries. The transformation of the demand-oriented economic understanding created by the Great Depression in 1929 into an interventionist social state understanding, especially after the World War Two, increased the intervention of states in the socioeconomic field. In this period, the reconstruction of the countries, the development of social welfare services, the assurance of human rights, the acceleration of industrialization and development, and the economic growth and income growth of the countries resulted in the golden age enjoyed by the societies of the period. The interventionist social state, seen as a prescription and opportunity in the past crisis, was one of the cornerstones of the crisis in the last quarter of the century in the 1970s. Against interventionism, with the rise of neo-liberalism, financial liberalization, information society, and technological discoveries, globalization has become the new phenomenon of the age. This book examines in detail the causes, occurrences, and results of the twentieth-century crises.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House Digital, Inc. ISBN: 0812979184 Category : Forecasting Languages : en Pages : 388
Book Description
In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House ISBN: 0812997697 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1377
Book Description
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks ISBN: 081297381X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 482
Book Description
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Author: Eric Lybeck Publisher: Macat Library ISBN: 9781912128204 Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Europeans once thought all swans were white, and white' was part of how they defined 'swan.' Then black swans were discovered, and the definition changed forever. In his 2007 book, Nicholas Taleb says the black swans of his title can appear at any time, in the form of financial crises, wars, and other unexpected events that have profound, irreversible consequences. He draws on philosophy, mathematics and economics to explain why we seldom prepare for these events adequately. The way our brains process knowledge, combined with the conventions of statistical modeling, lull us into believing the future will resemble the past. We must beware of, and be prepared for, the unexpected. Book jacket.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House ISBN: 1588367673 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 369
Book Description
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
Author: Kenneth A. Posner Publisher: Columbia University Press ISBN: 0231521677 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 284
Book Description
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.
Author: Bernur Açikgöz
Author: Bernur Açikgöz
Author: Bernur Açikgöz
Author: Bernur Açikgöz
Author: Bernur Açıkgöz
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Eric Lybeck
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Kenneth A. Posner