Application of Survival Analysis Modeling in Water Pipelines Failure in Cape Town PDF Download

Author: Salma M. E. Abdelgadir
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 244

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Author: Ahmad Asnaashari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 193

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La défaillance des réseaux d'eau constitue un problème majeur en Iran, qui nécessite des investissements importants et l'élaboration d'une stratégie optimale pour la réhabilition des réseaux d'eau. Ce travail constitue une contribution à cet objectif. Il vise le développement des outils pour améliorer la gestion et la maintenance des réseaux d'eau. Il comporte la détermination des principaux facteurs affectant la défaillance des réseaux d'eau, l'élaboration d'un modèle de prévision fondé sur les Réseaux de Neurones Artificiels, et le développement d'un modèle de survie. Ces approches ont été appliquées sur le réseau d'eau de la ville de Sanandaj en Iran. Le travail de thèse a comporté différents parties, notamment: la collecte de données sur le réseau de la ville de Sanandaj, l'analyse spatiale et statistique de ces données, le développement d'un modèle basé sur le Réseau de Neurones Artificiels et l'application de l'approche de survie. L'analyse des données a permis la détermination de principaux facteurs à l'origine de la défaillance des réseaux d'eau. Deux modèles de régression (multiple et Poisson) ont été employés pour la prévision du nombre de défaillances du réseau d'eau. Ces modèles ont été comparés à l'approche Réseau de Neurones Artificiels. La comparaison a montré tout l'intérêt d'utiliser l'approche Réseau de Neurones pour la prévision de la défaillance des réseaux d'eau. L'approche de survie a été utilisée pour étudier la durée de vie et étudier l'impact d'une intervention sur le réseau d'eau.

Author: Peter J. Smith
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482295709
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 267

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Analysis of Failure and Survival Data is an essential textbook for graduate-level students of survival analysis and reliability and a valuable reference for practitioners. It focuses on the many techniques that appear in popular software packages, including plotting product-limit survival curves, hazard plots, and probability plots in the context of censored data. The author integrates S-Plus and Minitab output throughout the text, along with a variety of real data sets so readers can see how the theory and methods are applied. He also incorporates exercises in each chapter that provide valuable problem-solving experience. In addition to all of this, the book also brings to light the most recent linear regression techniques. Most importantly, it includes a definitive account of the Buckley-James method for censored linear regression, found to be the best performing method when a Cox proportional hazards method is not appropriate. Applying the theories of survival analysis and reliability requires more background and experience than students typically receive at the undergraduate level. Mastering the contents of this book will help prepare students to begin performing research in survival analysis and reliability and provide seasoned practitioners with a deeper understanding of the field.

Author: M A. Hurley
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Seyed Farzad Karimian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 148

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The economic, social and environmental impacts of water main failures impose a great pressure on utility managers and municipalities to develop reliable rehabilitation/replacement plans. The Canadian Infrastructure Report Card 2012 stated that 15.4% of Canadian water distribution systems was in a ?fair? to ?very poor? condition with a replacement cost of CAD 25.9 billion. The ?fair?, ?poor? and ?very poor? conditions represent the beginning of deterioration, nearing the end of useful life and no residual life expectancy, respectively. The majority of municipalities in Canada do not possess complete dataset of water distribution networks. The annual number of breaks or breakage rate of each pipe segment is known as one of the most important criteria in condition assessment of water pipelines. The main objective of this research is to develop a research framework that circumvent the limitations of existing studies by: 1) identifying the most critical factors affecting water pipe failure rates, 2) determining the best mathematical expression for predicting water pipeline failure rate 3) developing deterioration curves, and 4) deploying sensitivity analysis to recognize the effect of each input change on the breakage rate. The proposed research framework utilizes Best Subset regression to recognize the most effective factors on water pipelines. Best-Subset Algorithm is a procedure to find the best combination of variables to predict the water pipe failure rate among all possible candidates. Once the process of critical factor selection is performed, selected variables are employed to predict the number of breaks of water pipes using Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR). The EPR is an intuitive data mining technique performed in two stages: 1) the search for the best model using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), and 2) the parameter estimation for the model using Least Square Method. The predicted number of breaks, computed by EPR, is utilized to develop deterioration curves by applying Weibull distribution function. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to: 1) recognize the effect of changing each input on the failure rate, and 2) study the relationship between the selected inputs and the output. The developed research framework is applied into two case studies to test its effectiveness. The case considers the water distribution networks in the City of Montréal, Canada and the City of Doha, Qatar. Physical factors, such as age, length, diameter and pipe material were identified as the most critical factors to affect the failure rate of pipes. The results indicate that the developed models successfully estimated the number of breaks for the City of Montreal and City of Doha with a maximum R-Squared of 89.35% and 96.27%, respectively. Also, it is tested by using 20% of each dataset and promising results were generated with a maximum R-Squared of 84.86% and 74.39% for dataset of Montreal and Doha respectively. This demonstrates the accuracy and robustness of the developed models in assessing and analyzing water distribution networks. The developed model is useful for municipalities and decision makers to prioritize the maintenance, repair, rehabilitation, and budget allocation of water distribution networks.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 140

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Backpacker brings the outdoors straight to the reader's doorstep, inspiring and enabling them to go more places and enjoy nature more often. The authority on active adventure, Backpacker is the world's first GPS-enabled magazine, and the only magazine whose editors personally test the hiking trails, camping gear, and survival tips they publish. Backpacker's Editors' Choice Awards, an industry honor recognizing design, feature and product innovation, has become the gold standard against which all other outdoor-industry awards are measured.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 116

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Book Description
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.

Author: Richard Turton
Publisher: Pearson Education
ISBN: 0132459183
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 1562

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The Leading Integrated Chemical Process Design Guide: Now with New Problems, New Projects, and More More than ever, effective design is the focal point of sound chemical engineering. Analysis, Synthesis, and Design of Chemical Processes, Third Edition, presents design as a creative process that integrates both the big picture and the small details–and knows which to stress when, and why. Realistic from start to finish, this book moves readers beyond classroom exercises into open-ended, real-world process problem solving. The authors introduce integrated techniques for every facet of the discipline, from finance to operations, new plant design to existing process optimization. This fully updated Third Edition presents entirely new problems at the end of every chapter. It also adds extensive coverage of batch process design, including realistic examples of equipment sizing for batch sequencing; batch scheduling for multi-product plants; improving production via intermediate storage and parallel equipment; and new optimization techniques specifically for batch processes. Coverage includes Conceptualizing and analyzing chemical processes: flow diagrams, tracing, process conditions, and more Chemical process economics: analyzing capital and manufacturing costs, and predicting or assessing profitability Synthesizing and optimizing chemical processing: experience-based principles, BFD/PFD, simulations, and more Analyzing process performance via I/O models, performance curves, and other tools Process troubleshooting and “debottlenecking” Chemical engineering design and society: ethics, professionalism, health, safety, and new “green engineering” techniques Participating successfully in chemical engineering design teams Analysis, Synthesis, and Design of Chemical Processes, Third Edition, draws on nearly 35 years of innovative chemical engineering instruction at West Virginia University. It includes suggested curricula for both single-semester and year-long design courses; case studies and design projects with practical applications; and appendixes with current equipment cost data and preliminary design information for eleven chemical processes–including seven brand new to this edition.

Author: International Development Research Centre (Canada)
Publisher: IDRC
ISBN: 088936804X
Category : Water resources development
Languages : en
Pages : 313

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Water Management in Africa and the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities

Author: M. Farley
Publisher: IWA Publishing
ISBN: 1900222116
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 297

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Book Description
This is a best practice manual for addressing water losses in water distribution networks worldwide. Systems and methodologies are presented for improving water loss and leakage management in a range of networks, from systems with a well-developed infrastructure to those in developing countries where the network may need to be upgraded. The key feature of the manual is a diagnostic approach to develop a water loss strategy - using the appropriate tools to find the right solutions - which can be applied to any network. The methods of assessing the scale and volume of water loss are outlined, together with the procedures for setting up leakage monitoring and detection systems. As well as real losses (leakage) procedures for addressing apparent losses, by introducing regulatory and customer metering policies are explained. Suggestions are made for demand management and water conservation programmes, to complement the water loss strategy. Recommendations are made for training workshops and operation and maintenance programmes to ensure skills transfer and sustainability. The manual is illustrated throughout with case studies. Losses in Water Distribution Networks will appeal to a wide range of practitioners responsible for designing and managing a water loss strategy. These include consultants, operations managers, engineers, technicians and operational staff. It will also be a valuable reference for senior managers and decision makers, who may require an overview of the principles and procedures for controlling losses. The book will also be suitable as a source document for courses in Water Engineering, Resource Management and Environmental Management.