Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises PDF Download

Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451852916
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21

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Book Description
In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Author: Utkarsh Katyaayun
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39

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Book Description
We investigate the relationship between credit rating events and credit default swap spreads for EU countries around the Subprime and European Debt Crises. Using event studies and OLS regressions we analyse the behavior of CDS spreads before, around and after credit rating events. Our results indicate that CDS spreads anticipate positive rating events as early as 2-3 months before the event however the anticipation for negative events is only 1-2 months prior; in addition we also observe announcement and post announcement effects in some instances. We also find that the behavior of CDS spreads and credit rating events has undergone a significant change after the crisis period. On similar lines, using logit and multinomial logit regressions we find that a change in CDS spreads are effective in predicting forthcoming credit rating events.

Author: Marti Subrahmanyam
Publisher: Now Publishers
ISBN: 9781601989000
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150

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Book Description
Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.

Author: Jochen R. Andritzky
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Book Description
Credit default swaps (CDS) provide the buyer with insurance against certain types of credit events by entitling him to exchange any of the bonds permitted as deliverable against their par value. Unlike bonds, whose risk spreads are assumed to be the product of default risk and loss rate, CDS are par instruments, and their spreads reflect the partial recovery of the delivered bond's face value. This paper addresses the implications of the difference between bond and CDS spreads and shows the extent to which the recovery assumption matters for determining CDS spreads. A no-arbitrage argument is applied to extract recovery rates from CDS and bond markets, using data from Brazil's distress in 2002-03. Results are related to the observation that preemptive restructurings are now more common than straight defaults in sovereign bond markets and that this leads to a decoupling of CDS and bond spreads.

Author: Mr.Emre Alper
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463931867
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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Book Description
We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.

Author: Jochen Andritzky
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540374493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 261

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Book Description
Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.

Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Author: Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145185451X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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Book Description
In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when spreads are higher than 1,000 basis points-we find that countries experience reduced capital market access and high interest rates on their external debt for typically more than two quarters. We also find that lagged ratings and ratings changes, including negative outlooks and credit watches, anticipate such debt crises.

Author: Klaus Schütz
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783656255123
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20

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Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: A, Union Graduate College, course: Money, Markets and Banking, language: English, abstract: A credit default swap is essentially an insurance contract to hedge credit risk. It is a type of derivative whose value depends on the likelihood of a company defaulting. In this type of derivative two parties enter a contract where one party agrees to pay another in the event of a company defaulting on bond payments (also known as a credit event) for a premium or spread. CDS played a pivotal role in the recent financial crisis. It is also due to CDS that the crisis in the US housing market grew to a danger for the global capital markets. They were mainly responsible for the fall of insurance giant AIG and other turmoil over the course of the financial crisis. In this paper the nature and history of CDS is examinzed and their role in the financial crisis analyzed.