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Author: Robin M. Hogarth Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Contrary to most formal models of decision making under risk and uncertainty that are built on the basis of prescriptive behavioral principles or axioms, this paper derives a descriptive model of decision making under ambiguity based on principles of behavior, i.e., principles that describe how people behave as opposed to how they should behave. The model assumes that people evaluate the impact of ambiguous probabilities by first anchoring on a given value of the unknown probability and then adjusting this by the net effect of imagining or trying out other values the probability could take. The mental simulation process incorporates giving differential weight to the ranges of probability values above and below the anchor where such weight reflects individual and situational variables. In particular, the assumption that people are cautious as opposed to reckless in making decisions, leads to attributing more weight to possible values of probabilities below the anchor when considering potential gains, and the reverse when faced with potential losses. (kr).
Author: Robin M. Hogarth Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Contrary to most formal models of decision making under risk and uncertainty that are built on the basis of prescriptive behavioral principles or axioms, this paper derives a descriptive model of decision making under ambiguity based on principles of behavior, i.e., principles that describe how people behave as opposed to how they should behave. The model assumes that people evaluate the impact of ambiguous probabilities by first anchoring on a given value of the unknown probability and then adjusting this by the net effect of imagining or trying out other values the probability could take. The mental simulation process incorporates giving differential weight to the ranges of probability values above and below the anchor where such weight reflects individual and situational variables. In particular, the assumption that people are cautious as opposed to reckless in making decisions, leads to attributing more weight to possible values of probabilities below the anchor when considering potential gains, and the reverse when faced with potential losses. (kr).
Author: Robin M. Hogarth Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
In many important decisions, people are uncertain or ambiguous concerning the magnitude of the probabilities of events that can affect outcomes. The classic theory of decision making argues that people's decisions should not be affected by whether knowledge of a probability is precise or ambiguous. This chapter presents a descriptive model of how people cope with ambiguous probabilities in decision making. The model predicts that ambiguity matters. 'Decision weights' associated with ambiguous probabilities are assumed to be reached via an anchoring-and-adjustment process in which people anchor on an estimate of the probability and then adjust this as a result of mentally stimulating alternative values of the probability. The mental simulation process is affected by both the amount of ambiguity and whether outcomes are large or small gains and/or losses. One important factor that determines people's attitudes toward ambiguity is the nature of the role they assume in making decisions. Keywords: Decision making, Attitudes(psychology), Ambiguity, Subjective probability, Risk adverse, Roles. (CP).
Author: T. K. Das Publisher: IAP ISBN: 1681236591 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 270
Book Description
Behavioral strategy continues to attract increasing research interest within the broader field of strategic management. Research in behavioral strategy has clear scope for development in tandem with such traditional streams of strategy research that involve economics, markets, resources, and technology. The key roles of psychology, organizational behavior, and behavioral decision making in the theory and practice of strategy have yet to be comprehensively grasped. Given that strategic thinking and strategic decision making are importantly concerned with human cognition, human decisions, and human behavior, it makes eminent sense to bring some balance in the strategy field by complementing the extant emphasis on the “objective’ economics-based view with substantive attention to the “subjective” individual-oriented perspective. This calls for more focused inquiries into the role and nature of the individual strategy actors, and their cognitions and behaviors, in the strategy research enterprise. For the purposes of this book series, behavioral strategy would be broadly construed as covering all aspects of the role of the strategy maker in the entire strategy field. The scholarship relating to behavioral strategy is widely believed to be dispersed in diverse literatures. These existing contributions that relate to behavioral strategy within the overall field of strategy has been known and perhaps valued by most scholars all along, but were not adequately appreciated or brought together as a coherent sub-field or as a distinct perspective of strategy. This book series on Research in Behavioral Strategy will cover the essential progress made thus far in this admittedly fragmented literature and elaborate upon fruitful streams of scholarship. More importantly, the book series will focus on providing a robust and comprehensive forum for the growing scholarship in behavioral strategy. In particular, the volumes in the series will cover new views of interdisciplinary theoretical frameworks and models (dealing with all behavioral aspects), significant practical problems of strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation, and emerging areas of inquiry. The series will also include comprehensive empirical studies of selected segments of business, economic, industrial, government, and non-profit activities with potential for wider application of behavioral strategy. Through the ongoing release of focused topical titles, this book series will seek to disseminate theoretical insights and practical management information that will enable interested professionals to gain a rigorous and comprehensive understanding of the subject of behavioral strategy. Decision Making in Behavioral Strategy contains contributions by leading scholars in the field of behavioral strategy research. The 10 chapters in this volume cover a number of significant issues relating to the decision making processes, practices, and perspectives in the field of behavioral strategy, covering diverse topics such as failures in acquisitions, entrepreneurs under ambiguity, metacognition, neural correlates of emotion, knowledge flows, behavioral responses, business modeling, and alliance capability. The chapters include empirical as well as conceptual treatments of the selected topics, and collectively present a wide-ranging review of the noteworthy research perspectives on decision making in behavioral strategy.
Author: Jong-Tsun Huang Publisher: Frontiers Media SA ISBN: 2889455289 Category : Decision making Languages : en Pages : 275
Book Description
The world is full of uncertainty. In unpredictable circumstances, can emotions facilitate advantageous decision-making? A neuroscience team, led by Antonio Damasio, explored this question using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). To the present day, the findings of numerous IGT-related investigations strongly influence clinical and interdisciplinary research, for example, in neuroeconomics and neuromarketing. This special issue examines IGT-based research progress over the past 20 years through literature reviews, clinical examinations, model construction, theoretical integration, and brain imaging technology. Both supportive and opposing viewpoints are provided to frame correlations between rationality, emotion, decision-making, and IGT. Potential future directions for IGT studies are discussed
Author: Kristina Yankova Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3658088710 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 321
Book Description
Kristina Yankova addresses the question of what role professional skepticism plays in the context of cognitive biases (the so-called information order effects) in auditor judgment. Professional skepticism is a fundamental concept in auditing. Despite its immense importance to audit practice and the voluminous literature on this issue, professional skepticism is a topic which still involves more questions than answers. The work provides important theoretical and empirical insights into the behavioral implications of professional skepticism in auditing.
Author: Terje Aven Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119317894 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 359
Book Description
Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.
Author: Robin M. Hogarth
Author: Robin M. Hogarth
Author: Robin M. Hogarth
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Author: 
Author: Robin M. Hogarth
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Author: T. K. Das
Author: Jong-Tsun Huang
Author: Kristina Yankova
Author: Terje Aven