Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics PDF Download

Author: Cilli Sobiech
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642323642
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 232

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Book Description
This thesis constitutes an extraordinary innovative research approach in transferring the concepts and methods of complex systems to risk research. It ambitiously bridges the barriers between theoretical, empirical and methodical research work and integrates these fields into one comprehensive approach of dealing with uncertainty in socio-ecological systems. The developed agent-based simulation aims at the dynamics of social vulnerability in the considered system of the German North Sea Coast. Thus, the social simulation provides an analytical method to explore the individual, relational, and spatial aspects leading to dynamics of vulnerability in society. Combining complexity science and risk research by the method of agent-based simulation hereby emphasizes the importance of understanding interrelations inside the system for the system's development, i.e. for the evolving. Based on a vulnerability assessment regarding vulnerability characteristics, present risk behavior and self-protection preferences of private households against the impacts of flooding and storm surges, possible system trajectories could be explored by means of simulation experiments. The system-analytical approach therefore contributes to an integrated consideration of multi-dimensional and context-sensitv social phenomena such as vulnerability. Furthermore it achieves conceptually and strategically relevant implications for risk research and complex systems research.

Author: Akira Namatame
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0191074993
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 294

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Book Description
While the significance of networks in various human behavior and activities has a history as long as human's existence, network awareness is a recent scientific phenomenon. The neologism network science is just one or two decades old. Nevertheless, with this limited time, network thinking has substantially reshaped the recent development in economics, and almost all solutions to real-world problems involve the network element. This book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The authors begin with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling's segregation model and Axelrod's spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The text also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. It reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the given foundation, the second part reviews three primary forms of network dynamics, such as diffusions, cascades, and influences. These primary dynamics are further extended and enriched by practical networks in goods-and-service markets, labor markets, and international trade. At the end, the book considers two challenging issues using agent-based models of networks: network risks and economic growth.

Author: Yared Abayneh Abebe
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000368076
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 165

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Book Description
The negative impacts of floods are attributed to the extent and magnitude of a flood hazard, and the vulnerability and exposure of natural and human elements. In flood risk management (FRM) studies, it is crucial to model the interaction between human and flood subsystems across multiple spatial, temporal and organizational scales. Models should address the heterogeneity that exists within the human subsystem, and incorporate institutions that shape the behaviour of individuals. Hence, the main objectives of the dissertation are to develop a modelling framework and a methodology to build holistic models for FRM, and to assess how coupled human-flood interaction models support FRM policy analysis and decision-making. To achieve the objectives, the study introduces the Coupled fLood-Agent-Institution Modelling framework (CLAIM). CLAIM integrates actors, institutions, the urban environment, hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes and external factors, which affect FRM activities. The framework draws on the complex system perspective and conceptualizes the interaction of floods, humans and their environment as drivers of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure. The human and flood subsystems are modelled using agent-based models and hydrodynamic models, respectively. The two models are dynamically coupled to understand human-flood interactions and to investigate the effect of institutions on FRM policy analysis.

Author: Koen H. van Dam
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400749325
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 285

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Book Description
Decision makers in large scale interconnected network systems require simulation models for decision support. The behaviour of these systems is determined by many actors, situated in a dynamic, multi-actor, multi-objective and multi-level environment. How can such systems be modelled and how can the socio-technical complexity be captured? Agent-based modelling is a proven approach to handle this challenge. This book provides a practical introduction to agent-based modelling of socio-technical systems, based on a methodology that has been developed at TU Delft and which has been deployed in a large number of case studies. The book consists of two parts: the first presents the background, theory and methodology as well as practical guidelines and procedures for building models. In the second part this theory is applied to a number of case studies, where for each model the development steps are presented extensively, preparing the reader for creating own models.

Author: Roman Egger
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030883892
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 647

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Book Description
Access to large data sets has led to a paradigm shift in the tourism research landscape. Big data is enabling a new form of knowledge gain, while at the same time shaking the epistemological foundations and requiring new methods and analysis approaches. It allows for interdisciplinary cooperation between computer sciences and social and economic sciences, and complements the traditional research approaches. This book provides a broad basis for the practical application of data science approaches such as machine learning, text mining, social network analysis, and many more, which are essential for interdisciplinary tourism research. Each method is presented in principle, viewed analytically, and its advantages and disadvantages are weighed up and typical fields of application are presented. The correct methodical application is presented with a "how-to" approach, together with code examples, allowing a wider reader base including researchers, practitioners, and students entering the field. The book is a very well-structured introduction to data science – not only in tourism – and its methodological foundations, accompanied by well-chosen practical cases. It underlines an important insight: data are only representations of reality, you need methodological skills and domain background to derive knowledge from them - Hannes Werthner, Vienna University of Technology Roman Egger has accomplished a difficult but necessary task: make clear how data science can practically support and foster travel and tourism research and applications. The book offers a well-taught collection of chapters giving a comprehensive and deep account of AI and data science for tourism - Francesco Ricci, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano This well-structured and easy-to-read book provides a comprehensive overview of data science in tourism. It contributes largely to the methodological repository beyond traditional methods. - Rob Law, University of Macau

Author: Christopher W. Zobel
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319244183
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 298

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Book Description
This volume provides a survey of current research problems and results in humanitarian operations research. Additionally, it discusses existing applications of humanitarian operations research, and considers new research efforts that clearly extend existing research and applications. The book is divided into three sections that provide an overview of the subject, a look at the theory, and an examination of applications. The overview section presents chapters on modeling approaches and metrics to evaluate nonprofit operations; chief findings of fieldwork research in disaster response logistics; the use of cash as a form of relief; and measuring markets that supply cash-based humanitarian interventions. The theory section includes chapters that examine the partner proliferation problem in disaster response networks; a case study of humanitarian logistics that examines how humanitarian culture informs change adoption; and a look at the current state of the art for information visibility in humanitarian operations. Finally, the application section focuses on blood products, vaccines, and food assistance, with individual chapters on efficient inventorying and distribution of blood products during disasters; a detailed look at modeling in the context of the vaccine supply chain; a framework for achieving equity, effectiveness, and efficiency in food bank operations; and a spatio-temporal vulnerabili ty assessment of the resilience of a population affected by sudden lack of food.

Author: Neiler Medina Pena
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000542823
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329

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Book Description
Climate change, combined with the rapid and often unplanned urbanisation trends, is associated with a rising trend in the frequency and severity of disasters triggered by natural hazards. In order to face the impacts of such threats, it is necessary to have an appropriate Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA). Traditional DRA approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR) have focused mainly on the hazard component of risk, with little attention to the vulnerability and the exposure components. To address this issue, this dissertation’s main objective is to develop and test a disaster risk modelling framework that incorporates socioeconomic vulnerability and the adaptive nature of exposure associated with human behaviour in extreme hydro-meteorological events in the context of SIDS. To achieve the objective, an Adaptive Disaster Risk Assessment (ADRA) framework is proposed. ADRA uses an index-based approach (PeVI) to assess the socioeconomic vulnerability using three components: susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptation. Furthermore, ADRA explicitly incorporates the exposure component using two approaches; first, a logistic regression model was built using the actual evacuation rates observed during Hurricane Irma, and second, an Agent-based model is used to simulate how households change their exposure levels in relation to different sources of information

Author: Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309317258
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 269

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Book Description
Tobacco consumption continues to be the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of tobacco products - specifically cigarettes, cigarette tobacco, roll-your-own tobacco, and smokeless tobacco - to protect public health and reduce tobacco use in the United States. Given the strong social component inherent to tobacco use onset, cessation, and relapse, and given the heterogeneity of those social interactions, agent-based models have the potential to be an essential tool in assessing the effects of policies to control tobacco. Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation describes the complex tobacco environment; discusses the usefulness of agent-based models to inform tobacco policy and regulation; presents an evaluation framework for policy-relevant agent-based models; examines the role and type of data needed to develop agent-based models for tobacco regulation; provides an assessment of the agent-based model developed for FDA; and offers strategies for using agent-based models to inform decision making in the future.

Author: Wolfgang Kröger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0857296558
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Book Description
The safe management of the complex distributed systems and critical infrastructures which constitute the backbone of modern industry and society entails identifying and quantifying their vulnerabilities to design adequate protection, mitigation, and emergency action against failure. In practice, there is no fail-safe solution to such problems and various frameworks are being proposed to effectively integrate different methods of complex systems analysis in a problem-driven approach to their solution. Vulnerable Systems reflects the current state of knowledge on the procedures which are being put forward for the risk and vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures. Classical methods of reliability and risk analysis, as well as new paradigms based on network and systems theory, including simulation, are considered in a dynamic and holistic way. Readers of Vulnerable Systems will benefit from its structured presentation of the current knowledge base on this subject. It will enable graduate students, researchers and safety and risk analysts to understand the methods suitable for different phases of analysis and to identify their criticalities in application.

Author: Zoé A. Hamstead
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030631311
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 190

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Book Description
This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change.