Assessment and Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions PDF Download

Author: Carl-Axel S. Staël von Holstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 248

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Author: Millett Granger Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 113993581X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 376

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The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.

Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107268168
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 574

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Book Description
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

Author: G.P. Libberton
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400913559
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 399

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Author: Ali Malkawi
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134357532
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 267

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Book Description
This book introduces recent advances in building simulation and outlines its historic development. Two important topics are described: uncertainty in simulation and coupled simulations, which are both closely linked to attempts to improve control and accuracy. This is followed by coverage of wind simulations and predictions, and then by an introduction to current systems and phenomenological modelling. Written by leading experts in the field both in the US and Europe, Advanced Building Simulation is an excellent graduate-level student textbook as well as a practical guide for architects, engineers and other construction professionals.

Author: Tamar Kugler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 038777131X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364

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Book Description
This text examines new research at the interface of operations research, behavioral and cognitive sciences, and decision analysis. From the cognitive behaviorist who collects empirical evidence as to how people make decisions to the engineer and economist who are the consumers of such understanding, the reader encounters the familiar Traveling Salesman Problem and Prisoner's dilemma, how agricultural decisions are made in Argentina's Pampas region, and some social goals that come into play as an element of rational decision-making. In these 14 self-contained chapters, broad topics covered include the integration of decision analysis and behavioral models, innovations in behavioral models, exploring descriptive behavior models, and experimental studies.

Author: S. James Press
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470317949
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 591

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Book Description
Ein Wiley-Klassiker über Bayes-Statistik, jetzt in durchgesehener und erweiterter Neuauflage! - Werk spiegelt die stürmische Entwicklung dieses Gebietes innerhalb der letzten Jahre wider - vollständige Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen - jetzt ergänzt durch unzählige Anwendungsbeispiele - die wichtigsten modernen Methoden (u. a. hierarchische Modellierung, linear-dynamische Modellierung, Metaanalyse, MCMC-Simulationen) - einzigartige Diskussion der Finetti-Transformierten und anderer Themen, über die man ansonsten nur spärliche Informationen findet - Lösungen zu den Übungsaufgaben sind enthalten

Author: Igor Linkov
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401009872
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 451

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Book Description
Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.

Author: Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470033304
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 338

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Book Description
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Author: Ali Mosleh
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540762621
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 766

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Book Description
These volumes contain the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 4), held in New York City in September 98. The conference provided a forum for the presentation of innovative methods and applications of risk-based approaches to improve the design and operation of technological systems and processes from the economic and safety points of view. Papers reflect progress made on methods and applications in such areas as modeling and analysis of complex systems, human and organizational performance assessment, software reliability, data collection and analysis, expert judgement modeling and use, identification and assessment of various types of uncertainty, risk-informed regulatory and operational decision making, and public perception of risk. A diverse range of disciplines are represented including aerospace, nuclear, fossil fuels, chemical systems, marine technology, transportation, information technology, medical systems, environment, and defense.