Author: Mr.José M. Barrionuevo Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451972237 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Author: José Barrionuevo Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Author: Victor Zarnowitz Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226978923 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 613
Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781557753373 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 142
Book Description
This paper focuses on the private nonfinancial sectors of the affected economies, financial liberalization provided households and businesses with greater access to credit markets. This contributed to the long period of expansion during the 1980s. Partly as a result of major changes to the financial systems, several industrial countries had a boom in asset markets associated with a period of asset accumulation, an unprecedented buildup of debt, a sharp increase in relative asset prices, and related increases in household wealth. The expansion in household financial activity in the United Kingdom during the 1980s was paralleled by a sizable boom in investment spending and an increase in corporate debt. The structure of balance sheets was also affected by mergers and acquisitions that led to a further expansion in corporate debt. New types of bank loans and accounts have prevented even greater disintermediation but have also reduced net interest margins because more deposits now earn market-related rates of return.
Author: Mary Morgan Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134573138 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 337
Book Description
This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.
Author: Mr.James M. Boughton Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451846703 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451973179 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 286
Book Description
This paper examines market liberalization policies in a reforming socialist economy. The aim of this paper is to develop a model of such a reforming socialist economy and to explore the consequences of market-oriented policies in the context of such an economy. A model of a socialist economy is presented, incorporating bargaining over wages and employment in the socialized sector and shortages that are reflected in the black market. The model is used to analyze the implications of liberalization policies, including trade liberalization, an administered price increase, and provisions allowing for increased direct foreign investment. The nonsocialized sector is perfectly competitive and produces an output that is different from that of the socialized sector. It has a neoclassical production function using a sector-specific input (say, capital) and labor. The results suggest that reforms may have different effects under different trade regimes and that small price reforms may have perverse effects.
Author: Mr.José M. Barrionuevo
Author: José Barrionuevo
Author: José M. Barrionuevo
Author: José M. Barrionuevo
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mary Morgan
Author: Mr.James M. Boughton
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.