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Author: Jeff Rothenberg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Automatic control Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
Large-scale simulations often involve huge numbers of parameters, making it prohibitive to run more than a tiny fraction of all potentially relevant cases. Sensitivity analysis attempts to show how responsive the results of a simulation are to changes in its parameters: this is an important tool for promoting confidence in a simulation and making its results credible. However, the computational cost of traditional approaches to sensitivity analysis prevents its use in many cases. The authors show that this cost is logically unnecessary and can be largely avoided by propagating and combining sensitivities during a computation, rather than recomputing them. They describe this "propagative" approach to sensitivity analysis and present the algorithm they have implemented to explore its potential
Author: Jeff Rothenberg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Automatic control Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
Large-scale simulations often involve huge numbers of parameters, making it prohibitive to run more than a tiny fraction of all potentially relevant cases. Sensitivity analysis attempts to show how responsive the results of a simulation are to changes in its parameters: this is an important tool for promoting confidence in a simulation and making its results credible. However, the computational cost of traditional approaches to sensitivity analysis prevents its use in many cases. The authors show that this cost is logically unnecessary and can be largely avoided by propagating and combining sensitivities during a computation, rather than recomputing them. They describe this "propagative" approach to sensitivity analysis and present the algorithm they have implemented to explore its potential
Author: Andrea Saltelli Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780470725177 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 304
Book Description
Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
Author: Andrea Saltelli Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 047087094X Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 232
Book Description
Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.
Author: Loïc Brevault Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030391264 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 477
Book Description
Spotlighting the field of Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), this book illustrates and implements state-of-the-art methodologies within the complex process of aerospace system design under uncertainties. The book provides approaches to integrating a multitude of components and constraints with the ultimate goal of reducing design cycles. Insights on a vast assortment of problems are provided, including discipline modeling, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, reliability analysis, and global multidisciplinary optimization. The extensive range of topics covered include areas of current open research. This Work is destined to become a fundamental reference for aerospace systems engineers, researchers, as well as for practitioners and engineers working in areas of optimization and uncertainty. Part I is largely comprised of fundamentals. Part II presents methodologies for single discipline problems with a review of existing uncertainty propagation, reliability analysis, and optimization techniques. Part III is dedicated to the uncertainty-based MDO and related issues. Part IV deals with three MDO related issues: the multifidelity, the multi-objective optimization and the mixed continuous/discrete optimization and Part V is devoted to test cases for aerospace vehicle design.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
Methods are discussed for computing the sensitivity of field variables to changes in material properties and initial/boundary condition parameters for heat transfer problems. The method we focus on is termed the ''Sensitivity Equation Method'' (SEM). It involves deriving field equations for sensitivity coefficients by differentiating the original field equations with respect to the parameters of interest and numerically solving the resulting sensitivity field equations. Uncertainty in the model parameters are then propagated through the computational model using results derived from first-order perturbation theory; this technique is identical to the methodology typically used to propagate experimental uncertainty. Numerical results are presented for the design of an experiment to estimate the thermal conductivity of stainless steel using transient temperature measurements made on prototypical hardware of a companion contact conductance experiment. Comments are made relative to extending the SEM to conjugate heat transfer problems.
Author: Hal Caswell Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030105342 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 308
Book Description
This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.
Author: Hongjing Wu Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.
Author: Lisa G. Stanley Publisher: SIAM ISBN: 9780898717556 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 160
Book Description
This book provides an understandable introduction to one approach to design sensitivity computation and illustrates some of the important mathematical and computational issues inherent in using the sensitivity equation method (SEM) for partial differential equations. The authors use basic models to illustrate the computational issues that one might encounter when applying the SEM in a laboratory or research setting, while providing an overview of applications and computational issues regarding sensitivity calculations performed by way of continuous sensitivity equation methods (CSEM).
Author: Daniela Steffes-lai Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH ISBN: 3832536965 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 232
Book Description
This work addresses the analysis of a sequential chain of processing steps, which is particularly important for the manufacture of robust product components. In each processing step, the material properties may have changed and distributions of related characteristics, for example, strains, may become inhomogeneous. For this reason, the history of the process including design-parameter uncertainties becomes relevant for subsequent processing steps. Therefore, we have developed a methodology, called PRO-CHAIN, which enables an efficient analysis, quantification, and propagation of uncertainties for complex process chains locally on the entire mesh. This innovative methodology has the objective to improve the overall forecast quality, specifically, in local regions of interest, while minimizing the computational effort of subsequent analysis steps. We have demonstrated the benefits and efficiency of the methodology proposed by means of real applications from the automotive industry.
Author: Jeff Rothenberg
Author: Jeff Rothenberg
Author: Daniela Steffes-Lai
Author: Andrea Saltelli
Author: Andrea Saltelli
Author: Loïc Brevault
Author: 
Author: Hal Caswell
Author: Hongjing Wu
Author: Lisa G. Stanley
Author: Daniela Steffes-lai