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Author: Kevin M. Clermont Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9783031665516 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probability’s product rules, which calculate a conjunction’s likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking.
Author: Kevin M. Clermont Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9783031665516 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book reframes the fundamentals of decisionmaking under uncertainty. For almost a century, theorists have spoken of truth-finding in terms of probability. They have said things like some past fact was 51% certain or proclaimed that in a civil dispute a fact must be shown to exceed a 50% likelihood. But such talk is a misleading misconception. The reason is that traditional probability fails to distinguish epistemic uncertainty from aleatory uncertainty. This conflation leads to mistakes such as invoking probability’s product rules, which calculate a conjunction’s likelihood as being low. From there, the theorists have argued that in a myriad of ways, the law violates the probability calculus unforgivably. Today, other theorists are newly realizing that in large part the law does not deal in probability. They now can defend the way that law has found facts since long before the invention of probability and on to the present. They are also reevaluating such intuitive practices as those that humans use in daily life to combine inferences upon inferences. A hotly contested literature has emerged. In a significant, comprehensive, and original contribution, this book develops a theoretical justification for the intuitive approaches that humans deploy across a broad range of decisionmaking. Instead of probability, the book focuses on degrees of belief that estimate, given the state of the evidence, how far a proposition has been fully proven. Instead of combining findings by the rules of probability, the book uses the rules of multivalent logic. The aim is to illuminate decisionmaking outside statistical analysis, showing that our ancient wisdom is in fact theoretically solid. The target is everyone interested in improving decisionmaking.
Author: Frederick Schauer Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 0674276256 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 321
Book Description
Winner of the Scribes Book Award “Displays a level of intellectual honesty one rarely encounters these days...This is delightful stuff.” —Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal “At a time when the concept of truth itself is in trouble, this lively and accessible account provides vivid and deep analysis of the practices addressing what is reliably true in law, science, history, and ordinary life. The Proof offers both timely and enduring insights.” —Martha Minow, former Dean of Harvard Law School “His essential argument is that in assessing evidence, we need, first of all, to recognize that evidence comes in degrees...and that probability, the likelihood that the evidence or testimony is accurate, matters.” —Steven Mintz, Inside Higher Education “I would make Proof one of a handful of books that all incoming law students should read...Essential and timely.” —Emily R. D. Murphy, Law and Society Review In the age of fake news, trust and truth are hard to come by. Blatantly and shamelessly, public figures deceive us by abusing what sounds like evidence. To help us navigate this polarized world awash in misinformation, preeminent legal theorist Frederick Schauer proposes a much-needed corrective. How we know what we think we know is largely a matter of how we weigh the evidence. But evidence is no simple thing. Law, science, public and private decision making—all rely on different standards of evidence. From vaccine and food safety to claims of election-fraud, the reliability of experts and eyewitnesses to climate science, The Proof develops fresh insights into the challenge of reaching the truth. Schauer reveals how to reason more effectively in everyday life, shows why people often reason poorly, and makes the case that evidence is not just a matter of legal rules, it is the cornerstone of judgment.
Author: William Twining Publisher: Dartmouth Publishing Company ISBN: 9781855212329 Category : Burden of proof Languages : en Pages : 553
Book Description
This collection of articles on matters of evidence and proof in law covers topics such as: logic and proof; law, fact and value; the law of evidence - its nature and scope; basic concepts of the law of evidence; burdens of proof and presumptions; and the protection of the accused.
Author: Christian Dahlman Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0192603094 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 433
Book Description
Philosophy has a strong presence in evidence law and the nature of evidence is a highly debated topic in both general and social epistemology; legal theorists working in the evidence law area draw on different underlying philosophical theories of knowledge, inference and probability. Core evidentiary concepts and principles, such as the presumption of innocence, standards of proof, and others, reply on moral and political philosophy for their understanding and interpretation. Written by leading scholars across the globe, this volume brings together philosophical debates on the nature and function of evidence, proof, and law of evidence. It presents a cross-disciplinary overview of central issues in the theory and methodology of legal evidence and covers a wide range of contemporary debates on topics such as truth, proof, economics, gender, and race. The volume covers different theoretical approaches to legal evidence, including the Bayesian approach, scenario theory and inference to the best explanation. Divided in to five parts, Philosophical Foundations of Evidence Law, covers different theoretical approaches to legal evidence, including the Bayesian approach, scenario theory and inference to the best explanation.
Author: John Maynard Keynes Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319703447 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 430
Book Description
This book was originally published by Macmillan in 1936. It was voted the top Academic Book that Shaped Modern Britain by Academic Book Week (UK) in 2017, and in 2011 was placed on Time Magazine's top 100 non-fiction books written in English since 1923. Reissued with a fresh Introduction by the Nobel-prize winner Paul Krugman and a new Afterword by Keynes’ biographer Robert Skidelsky, this important work is made available to a new generation. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money transformed economics and changed the face of modern macroeconomics. Keynes’ argument is based on the idea that the level of employment is not determined by the price of labour, but by the spending of money. It gave way to an entirely new approach where employment, inflation and the market economy are concerned. Highly provocative at its time of publication, this book and Keynes’ theories continue to remain the subject of much support and praise, criticism and debate. Economists at any stage in their career will enjoy revisiting this treatise and observing the relevance of Keynes’ work in today’s contemporary climate.
Author: S. N. Phillips Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform ISBN: 9781530729340 Category : Languages : en Pages : 194
Book Description
From the Introduction: THE THEORY PRESUMPTIVE PROOF. THERE is no branch of legal knowledge which is of more general utility, than that which regards the rules of evidence. The first point in every trial, is to establish the facts of the case; for he who fails in his proof, fails in everything. Although the jurists hold the law to be always fixed and certain, yet the discovery of the fact, they say, may deceive the most skillful. No work has as yet appeared in the English language on the theory of evidence; and the nature of circumstantial evidence has been still less inquired into. The object of the present Essay is to inquire into some of the more general principles of legal proof, and particularly into that species of proof which is founded on presumptions, and is known to the English lawyer by the name of circumstantial evidence. Evidence and proof are often confounded, as implying the same idea; but they differ, as cause and effect. Proof is the legal credence which the law gives to any statement, by witnesses or writings; evidence is the legal process by which that proof is made. Hence, we say, that the law admits of no proof but such as is made agreeably to its own principles. The principles of evidence are founded on our observations on human conduct, on common life, and living manners: they are not just because they are rules of law; but they are rules of law because they are just and reasonable. It has been found, from common observation, that certain circumstances warrant certain presumptions. Thus, that a mother shall feel an affection for her child, -that a man shall be influenced by his interest, -that youth shall be susceptible of the passion of love,-are laws of our general nature, and grounds of evidence in every country. Of the two women who contended for their right to the child, she was declared to be the mother who would not consent to its being divided betwixt them. When Lothario tells us that he stole alone, at night, into the chamber of his mistress, "hot with the Tuscan grape, and high in blood!" Cætcra quis ncscit? As the principles of evidence are founded on the observations of what we have seen, or believed to have been passing in real life, they will accordingly be suited to the state of the society in which we live, or to the manners and habits of the times. The following passage, in the excellent memoirs of Philip de Comines, I believe to be perfectly true, because it is confirmed by other accounts of the general state of manners at the period when he wrote. Louis XI. distributed, he asserts, for corrupt purposes, sixteen thousand crowns among the King of England's officers that were about his person, particularly to the chancellor, the master of the rolls, the lord chancellor, &c. The truth of this narrative has never been called in question, because it is given by an historian of great gravity and character, and is illustrated by the manners of the age; yet although the author says that his design in writing of these transactions, is to show the method and conduct of all human affairs, by the reading of which such persons as are employed in the negotiation of great matters, may be instructed how to manage their administrations, we should find it difficult to give credence to such facts, if related of any modern lord high chancellor or officer of state of the court o England.
Author: S. N. Phillips Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform ISBN: 9781976158650 Category : Languages : en Pages : 194
Book Description
From the Introduction: "The Theory of Presumptive Proof." THERE is no branch of legal knowledge which is of more general utility, than that which regards the rules of evidence. The first point in every trial, is to establish the facts of the case; for he who fails in his proof, fails in everything. Although the jurists hold the law to be always fixed and certain, yet the discovery of the fact, they say, may deceive the most skillful. No work has as yet appeared in the English language on the theory of evidence; and the nature of circumstantial evidence has been still less inquired into. The object of the present Essay is to inquire into some of the more general principles of legal proof, and particularly into that species of proof which is founded on presumptions, and is known to the English lawyer by the name of circumstantial evidence. Evidence and proof are often confounded, as implying the same idea; but they differ, as cause and effect. Proof is the legal credence which the law gives to any statement, by witnesses or writings; evidence is the legal process by which that proof is made. Hence, we say, that the law admits of no proof but such as is made agreeably to its own principles. The principles of evidence are founded on our observations on human conduct, on common life, and living manners: they are not just because they are rules of law; but they are rules of law because they are just and reasonable. It has been found, from common observation, that certain circumstances warrant certain presumptions. Thus, that a mother shall feel an affection for her child, -that a man shall be influenced by his interest, -that youth shall be susceptible of the passion of love, -are laws of our general nature, and grounds of evidence in every country. Of the two women who contended for their right to the child, she was declared to be the mother who would not consent to its being divided betwixt them. When Lothario tells us that he stole alone, at night, into the chamber of his mistress," hot with the Tuscan grape, and high in blood!" Coetera quis nescit? As the principles of evidence are founded on the observations of what we have seen, or believed to have been passing in real life, they will accordingly be suited to the state of the society in which we live, or to the manners and habits of the times. The following passage, in the excellent memoirs of Philip de Comines, I believe to be perfectly true, because it is confirmed by other accounts of the general state of manners at the period when he wrote. Louis XI. distributed, he asserts, for corrupt purposes, sixteen thousand crowns among the King of England's officers that were about his person, particularly to the chancellor, the master of the rolls, the lord chancellor, &c.
Author: Kevin M. Clermont
Author: Kevin M. Clermont
Author: Kevin M. Clermont
Author: Frederick Schauer
Author: William Twining
Author: Christian Dahlman
Author: John Maynard Keynes
Author: Stephen H. Levy
Author: Thomas Joseph Asma
Author: S. N. Phillips
Author: S. N. Phillips