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Author: Adalat Muradov Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030114945 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.
Author: Adalat Muradov Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030114945 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.
Author: Robert McNally Publisher: Columbia University Press ISBN: 0231543689 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 336
Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author: Salvatore Carollo Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119962900 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Author: Adi Imsirovic Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030717186 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 262
Book Description
This is a book about the international oil market. It takes a historical perspective on how the market emerged, developed, and became what it is today—the biggest commodity market in the world. It is mature and complex, but far from perfect. Throughout most of its 150-year history, the oil market has been monopolised by companies and governments. For only a fraction of that, oil traded in a relatively free market. As a result, we had to live with ‘big oil’, economic shocks, high oil prices, instability and wars. Using a simple concept of market power, this book will explain the meaning of ‘oil price’ and how it is established while offering a valuable lesson for other commodities. Market power is the key to understanding the ‘price of oil’. This book uses a simple concept of price-makers and price-takers to examine the evolution of oil markets, their structure, and prices. The early decades of the oil industry were competitive with low barriers to entry. Barely 25 years later, the Standard Oil company created a refining monopoly, buying oil at its own ‘posted’ price. In the following century, the cartel of major oil companies, helped by their governments, did the same at the international level. OPEC helped producing governments regain control of their own resources, but the organisation was never able to retain a similar level of control. After 1986 price collapse, OPEC abdicated the price-making function in favour of the market. While it never gave up attempts to influence prices, OPEC had to link their official prices to one of the global oil benchmarks. Modern international oil markets function because of oil benchmarks such as Brent, WTI and Dubai. This book showcases: • How oil traders played a prominent role in development of the industry • How policies of consuming nations helped oil cartels • Why and how the US price of oil was negative • How AI has changed the way markets operate and the way in which the markets are likely to change in future This book explores how oil markets grew, functioned, and have occasionally failed to do their job. The ecosystem of derivatives or ‘paper barrels’ trading in far greater volume than physical oil plays a very important role in mitigating risk. With this core tenant, setting the ‘price of oil’ is explained in detail.
Author: Adalat Muradov
Author: Adalat Muradov
Author: Robert McNally
Author: Salvatore Carollo
Author: Roberto F. Aguilera
Author: Adi Imsirovic
Author: Lawrence C. Kumins
Author: Paul Leo Eckbo
Author: James M. Griffin
Author: Hendrik S. Houthakker
Author: Wilfrid L. Kohl