Global Trends 2040 PDF Download

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: United States. Central Intelligence Agency
Publisher: Potomac Books
ISBN: 9781574886412
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 712

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By intelligence officials for intelligent people

Author: Thane Gustafson
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674247434
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 337

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A discerning analysis of the future effects of climate change on Russia, the major power most dependent on the fossil fuel economy. Russia will be one of the countries most affected by climate change. No major power is more economically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons; at the same time, two-thirds of RussiaÕs territory lies in the arctic north, where melting permafrost is already imposing growing damage. Climate change also brings drought and floods to RussiaÕs south, threatening the countryÕs agricultural exports. Thane Gustafson predicts that, over the next thirty years, climate change will leave a dramatic imprint on Russia. The decline of fossil fuel use is already underway, and restrictions on hydrocarbons will only tighten, cutting fuel prices and slashing RussiaÕs export revenues. Yet Russia has no substitutes for oil and gas revenues. The country is unprepared for the worldwide transition to renewable energy, as Russian leaders continue to invest the national wealth in oil and gas while dismissing the promise of post-carbon technologies. Nor has the state made efforts to offset the direct damage that climate change will do inside the country. Optimists point to new opportunitiesÑhigher temperatures could increase agricultural yields, the melting of arctic ice may open year-round shipping lanes in the far north, and Russia could become a global nuclear-energy supplier. But the eventual post-Putin generation of Russian leaders will nonetheless face enormous handicaps, as their country finds itself weaker than at any time in the preceding century. Lucid and thought-provoking, Klimat shows how climate change is poised to alter the global order, potentially toppling even great powers from their perches.

Author: John J. Mearsheimer
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN: 1429932821
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 651

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Originally published in 2007, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, by John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago and Stephen M. Walt of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, provoked both howls of outrage and cheers of gratitude for challenging what had been a taboo issue in America: the impact of the Israel lobby on U.S. foreign policy. A work of major importance, it remains as relevant today as it was in the immediate aftermath of the Israel-Lebanon war of 2006. Mearsheimer and Walt describe in clear and bold terms the remarkable level of material and diplomatic support that the United States provides to Israel and argues that this support cannot be fully explained on either strategic or moral grounds. This exceptional relationship is due largely to the political influence of a loose coalition of individuals and organizations that actively work to shape U.S. foreign policy in a pro-Israel direction. They provocatively contend that the lobby has a far-reaching impact on America's posture throughout the Middle East―in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, and toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict―and the policies it has encouraged are in neither America's national interest nor Israel's long-term interest. The lobby's influence also affects America's relationship with important allies and increases dangers that all states face from global jihadist terror. The publication of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy led to a sea change in how the U.S-Israel relationship was discussed, and continues to be one of the most talked-about books in foreign policy.

Author: Jacob Parakilas
Publisher: Chatham House (Formerly Riia)
ISBN: 9781784132125
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Book Description
"The rise of AI must be better managed in the near term in order to mitigate longer term risks and to ensure that AI does not reinforce existing inequalities"--Publisher.

Author: Human Rights Watch
Publisher: Seven Stories Press
ISBN: 1609808851
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 847

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Book Description
The best country-by-country assessment of human rights. The human rights records of more than ninety countries and territories are put into perspective in Human Rights Watch's signature yearly report. Reflecting extensive investigative work undertaken by Human Rights Watch staff, in close partnership with domestic human rights activists, the annual World Report is an invaluable resource for journalists, diplomats, and citizens, and is a must-read for anyone interested in the fight to protect human rights in every corner of the globe.

Author: EDWARD. TAYLOR-KALE ALDEN (LAURA.)
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations Press
ISBN: 9780876097441
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 160

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Book Description
The world is in the midst of a transformation in the nature of work, as smart machines, artificial intelligence, new technologies, and global competition remake how people do their jobs and pursue their careers. The Work Ahead focuses on how to rebuild the links among work, opportunity, and economic security for all Americans.

Author: Robert D. Blackwill
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations Press
ISBN: 9780876097632
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 112

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Book Description
Blackwill examines in detail Trump's actions in a turbulent world in important policy areas, including the United States' relationships with its allies, its relationships with China and Russia, and its policies on the Middle East and climate change. This report acknowledges the persuasive points of Trump's critics, but at the same time seeks to perform exacting autopsies on their less convincing critiques.

Author: Adam Segal
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations Press
ISBN: 9780876097700
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 124

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Book Description
For the past three-quarters of a century, the United States has led the world in technological innovation and development. The nation now risks falling behind its competitors, principally China. The United States needs to advance a national innovation strategy to ensure it remains the predominant power in a range of emerging technologies. Innovation and National Security: Keeping Our Edge outlines a strategy based on four pillars: restoring federal funding for research and development, attracting and educating a science and technology workforce, supporting technology adoption in the defense sector, and bolstering and scaling technology alliances and ecosystems. Failure could lead to a future in which rivals strengthen their militaries and threaten U.S. security interests, and new innovation centers replace the United States as the source of original ideas and inspiration for the world.

Author: Uzra S. Zeya
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations Press
ISBN: 9780876091883
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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Book Description
"America's network of international relationships is its foremost strategic asset, even as the agency charged with advancing U.S. interests through diplomacy-the Department of State (DOS)-has fallen into a deep and sustained period of crisis," write former diplomats Uzra S. Zeya and Jon Finer. In Revitalizing the State Department and American Diplomacy, they argue that "left unaddressed, the challenges that DOS faces risk causing irreparable damage to America's standing and influence in the world, ability to advance its interests overseas, and security and prosperity at home." The authors note that "despite the decades-long failure to implement essential reforms-and even in the face of sustained hostility from the [Donald J. Trump] administration-diplomacy remains the best tool the United States has to advance its foreign policy interests." "But many of the challenges facing the DOS have existed for decades," they explain. "Deficits in diversity, institutional culture, and professionalization are endemic to the State Department as an institution, and a diminished policy role for career officials persisted under previous administrations." Zeya and Finer identify areas in greatest need of reform and offer the following recommendations for the next secretary of state: Twenty-First-Century Statecraft. The State Department should develop "greater expertise in the range of issues that will be essential to American leadership in the twenty-first century," which include climate change, pandemic disease, shifting global power, economic competitiveness, equity, anticorruption, and technological transformation. Institutional Reform. "Make the State Department a diverse, equitable, and inclusive institution" by underscoring diversity as a national security priority, overcoming a risk-averse culture, delayering and decentralizing decision-making, and bridging the career-noncareer divide. Workforce Expansion. "Urgent attention needs to be devoted to revitalizing the professional path and retention of the current DOS workforce," which has seen "a brain drain of senior talent" and "Civil Service staffing frozen at 2017 levels." The authors suggest greater flexibility in career paths and enabling return, as well as rebooting and expanding training and continuous learning. Beyond the Near Term. "The State Department would also benefit from some longer-term thinking" including amending the Foreign Service Act, implementing unified national security budgeting, and establishing a Diplomatic Reserve Corps. "When properly empowered and entrusted with significant responsibilities, American diplomats play essential roles in consequential outcomes for the country," the authors write. Revitalizing the State Department and restoring diplomacy "means addressing deficiencies in DOS policy focus and capacity, institutional culture, and workforce diversity and flexibility, while laying the groundwork to cement these and other changes through legislation," the authors conclude. Finer was chief of staff and director of policy planning at the U.S. Department of State. He is currently on leave as an adjunct senior fellow at CFR. Zeya is CEO and president of the Alliance for Peacebuilding and previously had a twenty-seven-year diplomatic career.