Author: Luca DedolaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Book Description
Why are Business Cycles Alike Across Exchange-rate Regimes?
Author: Luca DedolaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Book Description
Why is the Business-cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-rate Regimes?
Author: Luca DedolaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 56
Book Description
Global Business Cycles
Author: Mr.Ayhan KosePublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Book Description
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Why is the Business-cycle Behaviour of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-rate Regimes?
Author: Luca DedolaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Book Description
The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries
Author: Mr.Ivan TchakarovPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451863705
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.
Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Mr.Kenneth RogoffPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875843
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 85
Book Description
Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.
Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie CerraPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System
Author: Marianne BaxterPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 80
Book Description
This paper investigates empirically the differences in time?series behavior of key economic aggregates under alternative exchange rate systems. We use a postwar sample of 49 countries to compare the behavior of output. consumption, trade flows, government consumption spending, and real exchange rates under alternative exchange rate systems (pegged, floating, and systems such as the EMS). We then examine evidence from two particular episodes, involving Canada and Ireland, of changes in the exchange rate system. Aside from greater variability of real exchange rates under flexible than under pegged nominal exchange rate systems, we find little evidence of systematic differences in the behavior of other macroeconomic aggregates or international trade flows under alternative exchange rate systems. These results are of interest because a large class of theoretical models implies that the nominal exchange rate system has important effects on a number of macroeconomic quantities.
Real Business Cycles, Real Exchange Rates and Actual Policies
Author: Allan H. MeltzerPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 316
Book Description
Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Properties
Author: Thepthida SopraseuthPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper aims at measuring the robustness of Real Business Cycle international stylized facts across exchange rate regimes. I thus investigate the impact of the Bretton Woods System and the ERM on the business cycle regularities. Thanks to bootstrap techniques, I measure the accuracy of the statistics. While exchange rate variability is sensitive to the nature of the exchange rate regime, the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals does not differ across exchange rate regimes. Moreover, there is evidence that fixed-rates enhance international comovement of ouput, consumption and investment.