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Author: Takatoshi Itō Publisher: ISBN: Category : Monetary policy Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
"This paper analyzes and estimates the reaction function of the Japanese monetary authorities in deciding when to intervene in the foreign exchange (forex) markets, using daily Japanese intervention data from April 1, 1991 to December 31, 2002. This paper is the first in estimating the reaction function of the monetary authorities in the forex market intervention with following new methods. First, a theoretical friction model is presented to describe the intervention as cost-minimizing behavior. Second, the ordered probit analysis, which is consistent with the theoretical model, was carried out to predict authorities' reaction function. The regime change from frequent, small-size intervention before June 1995 and infrequent, large-size intervention after June 1995 is established and estimations are conducted for two different regimes separately. Third, a noise-to-signal ratio is applied in selecting the optimal cutoff point in estimated ordered probit function to use the model for predicting interventions. Major findings are as follows: (1) There was a regime change in June 1995 from small-scale frequent interventions to large-scale infrequent interventions; (2) the first half of the sample period had lower friction costs than the second half of the sample period; (3) Judging from the model and data, the optimum cutoff was higher in the first half than the second half"--NBER website
Author: Takatoshi Itō Publisher: ISBN: Category : Monetary policy Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
"This paper analyzes and estimates the reaction function of the Japanese monetary authorities in deciding when to intervene in the foreign exchange (forex) markets, using daily Japanese intervention data from April 1, 1991 to December 31, 2002. This paper is the first in estimating the reaction function of the monetary authorities in the forex market intervention with following new methods. First, a theoretical friction model is presented to describe the intervention as cost-minimizing behavior. Second, the ordered probit analysis, which is consistent with the theoretical model, was carried out to predict authorities' reaction function. The regime change from frequent, small-size intervention before June 1995 and infrequent, large-size intervention after June 1995 is established and estimations are conducted for two different regimes separately. Third, a noise-to-signal ratio is applied in selecting the optimal cutoff point in estimated ordered probit function to use the model for predicting interventions. Major findings are as follows: (1) There was a regime change in June 1995 from small-scale frequent interventions to large-scale infrequent interventions; (2) the first half of the sample period had lower friction costs than the second half of the sample period; (3) Judging from the model and data, the optimum cutoff was higher in the first half than the second half"--NBER website
Author: Romain Lafarguette Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513569406 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Author: Milan Nedeljkovic Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475571038 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.
Author: Takatoshi Ito Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262538245 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 617
Book Description
The second edition of a comprehensive account of all the major aspects of the Japanese economy, substantially updated and expanded. This textbook offers a comprehensive, rigorous but accessible account of all the major aspects of the Japanese economy, grounding its approach in mainstream economics. The second edition has been extensively revised and substantially updated, with new material that covers Japan's period of economic stagnation between 1991 and 2010. The first edition, published in 1992, focused on Japan as a success story of catch-up economic development; this edition reflects the lessons learned from Japan's Lost Two Decades. After presenting the historical background, the book begins with macroeconomics, studying growth and business cycles. It then covers essential policy issues, with new material that takes into account the Japanese banking crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, discussing financial regulation, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. It goes on to examine saving, demography, and social security in light of Japan's ongoing demographic transition; industrial organization; labor markets; international trade and international finance; and the Japan–U.S. relationship. A new chapter offers a detailed analysis of the Lost Two Decades, synthesizing and applying concepts discussed in previous chapters and offering insights into such issues as successful catch-up growth, demographic shifts, and credit booms and busts.
Author: Michael D. Bordo Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022605151X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 453
Book Description
During the twentieth century, foreign-exchange intervention was sometimes used in an attempt to solve the fundamental trilemma of international finance, which holds that countries cannot simultaneously pursue independent monetary policies, stabilize their exchange rates, and benefit from free cross-border financial flows. Drawing on a trove of previously confidential data, Strained Relations reveals the evolution of US policy regarding currency market intervention, and its interaction with monetary policy. The authors consider how foreign-exchange intervention was affected by changing economic and institutional circumstances—most notably the abandonment of the international gold standard—and how political and bureaucratic factors affected this aspect of public policy.
Author: De-Shuang Huang Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 364225943X Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 751
Book Description
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2011, held in Zhengzhou, China, in August 2011. The 94 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 832 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on intelligent computing in scheduling; local feature descriptors for image processing and recognition; combinatorial and numerical optimization; machine learning theory and methods; intelligent control and automation; knowledge representation/reasoning and expert systems; intelligent computing in pattern recognition; intelligent computing in image processing; intelligent computing in computer vision; biometrics with applications to individual security/forensic sciences; modeling, theory, and applications of positive systems; sparse manifold learning methods and applications; advances in intelligent information processing.
Author: Shinji Takagi Publisher: OUP Oxford ISBN: 0191024066 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 333
Book Description
Conquering the Fear of Freedom presents an analytical review of Japanese exchange rate policy from the end of World War II to the present. It examines how authorities, starting with the imposition of draconian controls over all international financial flows, moved toward eliminating virtually all state interference regulating foreign exchange transactions, including official intervention in the foreign exchange market. It describes how policy and institutional frameworks evolved, explains their domestic and international contexts, and assesses the impacts and consequences of policy actions. Following successful exchange rate-based stabilization in the early 1950s, Japan entered the world trading system with an overvalued currency, which helped perpetuate exchange and capital controls. As the culture of administrative control became ingrained, Japan took a decidedly gradualist approach to establishing current and capital account convertibility. The protracted capital account liberalization, coupled with slow domestic financial liberalization, created large swings in the yen's exchange rate when it was floated in the 1970s. Politicization by major trading partners of Japan's large bilateral trade surplus pressured authorities to subordinate domestic stability to external objectives. The ultimate outcome was costly: from the late 1980s, Japan successively experienced asset price inflation, a banking crisis, and economic stagnation. The book concludes by arguing that the shrinking trade surplus against the background of profound structural changes, the rise of China that has diminished the political intensity of any remaining bilateral economic issues, and the world's sympathy over two decades of deflation have given Japan, at least for now, the freedom to use macroeconomic policies for domestic purposes.
Author: Chih-nan Chen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
"The monetary authorities react even to intraday changes in the exchange rate; however, in most cases, intervention data is available only at a daily frequency. This temporal aggregation makes it difficult to identify the effects of interventions on the exchange rate. We propose a new method based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to cope with this endogeneity problem: We use "data augmentation" to obtain intraday intervention amounts and then estimate the efficacy of interventions using the augmented data. Applying this method to Japanese data, we find that an intervention of one trillion yen moves the yen/dollar rate by 1.7 percent, which is more than twice as large as the magnitude reported in previous studies applying OLS to daily observations . This shows the quantitative importance of the endogeneity problem due to temporal aggregation."--Authors' abstract.
Author: Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico Publisher: ISBN: 9789291319626 Category : Banks and banking, Central Languages : es Pages : 0
Author: Takatoshi Itō
Author: Takatoshi Itō
Author: Romain Lafarguette
Author: Kōichi Hamada
Author: Milan Nedeljkovic
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Author: De-Shuang Huang
Author: Shinji Takagi
Author: Chih-nan Chen
Author: Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico