Watershed scale response to climate change, Cathance Stream Basin, Maine PDF Download

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 6

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Author: Mark C. Mastin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 6

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Author: Steven L. Markstrom
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 143

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Author: U.S. Department of the Interior
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781499365696
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 154

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A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results.

Author: Steven L. | Hay Markstorm (Lauren E. |)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Maine. Environmental and Energy Resources Working Group
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climate change mitigation
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Author: Muhammad Zia ur Rahman Hashmi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 536

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Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most reliable source to provide the necessary data for climate change studies. At present, there is a wide variety of GCMs, which can be used for future projections of climate change using different emission scenarios. However, for assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change at the watershed and the regional scale, the GCM outputs cannot be used directly due to the mismatch in the spatial resolution between the GCMs and hydrological models. In order to use the output of a GCM for conducting hydrological impact studies, downscaling is used to convert the coarse spatial resolution of the GCM output into a fine resolution. In broad terms, downscaling techniques can be classified as dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling. Statistical downscaling approaches are further classified into three broad categories, namely: (1) weather typing; (2) weather generators; and (3) multiple regression-based. For the assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change at the watershed scale, statistical downscaling is usually preferred over dynamical downscaling as station scale information required for such studies may not be directly obtained through dynamical downscaling. Among the variables commonly downscaled, precipitation downscaling is still quite challenging, which has been recognised by many recent studies. Moreover, statistical downscaling methods are usually considered to be not very effective for simulation of precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events. On the other hand, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are very likely to be impacted by envisaged climate change in most parts of the world, thus posing the risk of increased floods and droughts. In this situation, hydrologists should only rely on those statistical downscaling tools that are equally efficient for simulating mean precipitation as well as extreme precipitation events. There is a wide variety of statistical downscaling methods available under the three categories mentioned above, and each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, no single method has been developed which is considered universal for all kinds of conditions and all variables. In this situation there is a need for multi-model downscaling studies to produce probabilistic climate change projections rather than a point estimate of a projected change. In order to address some of the key issues in the field of statistical downscaling research, this thesis study includes the evaluation of two well established and popular downscaling models, i.e. the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), in terms of their ability to downscale precipitation, with its mean and extreme characteristics, for the Clutha River watershed in New Zealand. It also presents the development of a novel statistical downscaling tool using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and compares its performance with the SDSM-a widely used tool of similar nature. The GEP downscaling model proves to be a simpler and more efficient solution for precipitation downscaling than the SDSM model. Also, a major part of this study comprises of an evaluation of all the three downscaling models i.e. the SDSM, the LARS-WG and the GEP, in terms of their ability to simulate and downscale the frequency of extreme precipitation events, by fitting a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the annual maximum data obtained from the three models. Out of the three models, the GEP model appears to be the least efficient in simulating the frequency of extreme precipitation events while the other two models show reasonable capability in this regard. Furthermore, the research conducted for this thesis explores the development of a novel probabilistic multi-model ensemble of the three downscaling models, involved in the thesis study, using a Bayesian statistical framework and presents probabilistic projections of precipitation change for the Clutha watershed. In this way, the thesis endeavoured to contribute in the ongoing research related to statistical downscaling by addressing some of the key modern day issues highlighted by other leading researchers.

Author: Maine Climate Council
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climate change mitigation
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Martinus Hubertus Brouwers
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780494436011
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 121

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Since the advent of the industrial era atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have been on the rise leading to increasing global mean temperatures. Through increasing temperatures and changes to distributions of precipitation, climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle which will directly impact surface water sources while the impacts to groundwater are reflected through changes in recharge to the water table. The IPCC (2001) reports that limited investigations have been conducted regarding the impacts of climate change to groundwater resources. The complexity of evaluating the hydrologic impacts of climate change requires the use of a numerical model. This thesis investigates the state of the science of conjunctive surface-subsurface water modeling with the aim of determining a suitable approach for conducting long-term transient simulations at the watershed scale. As a result of this investigation, a coupled modeling approach is adopted using HELP3 to simulate surface and vadose zone processes and HydroSphere to simulate saturated flow of groundwater. This approach is applied to the Alder Creek Watershed, which is a subwatershed of the Grand River Watershed and located near Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario. The Alder Creek Watershed is a suitable case study for the evaluation of climate change scenarios as it has been well characterized from previous studies and it is relatively small in size. Two contrasting scenarios of climate change (i.e., drier and wetter futures) are evaluated relative to a reference scenario that is based on the historical climatic record of the region. The simulation results show a strong impact upon the timing of hydrologic processes, shifting the spring snow melt to earlier in the year leading to an overall decrease in runoff and increase in infiltration for both drier and wetter future climate scenarios. Both climate change scenarios showed a marked increase to overall evapotranspiration which is most pronounced in the summer months. The impacts to groundwater are more subdued relative to surface water. This is attributed to the climate forcing perturbations being attenuated by the shift of the spring snow melt and the transient storage effects of the vadose zone, which can be significant given the hummocky terrain of the region. The simulation results show a small overall rise of groundwater elevations resulting from the simulated increase in infiltration for both climate change scenarios.

Author: Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781772020113
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 61

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This Implementation Framework for Climate Change Adaptation Planning at a Watershed Scale (Framework) was developed by the Water Monitoring and Climate Change Project Team of the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) Water Management Committee (WMC). The Framework provides watershed managers with a structured process to identify and reduce climate vulnerability and risk, and build resiliency within the watershed. The Framework presents a methodology through which a group of individuals can come together to assess and manage vulnerabilities and risks stemming from climate change at a watershed level. It is informed by existing international and domestic climate change adaptation frameworks that appear in published literature and a jurisdictional survey of climate change adaptation practitioners from across Canada. The Framework lists seven key steps, each with a series of tasks and outcomes. Inherent to the process is the intention of adaptive management. The method of managing adaptively is appropriate for this context in dealing with uncertainty in climate change as well as the importance of tracking, monitoring and evaluating adaptive measures designed to reduce climate risk.