Volatility Characteristics and Spillover Effects Among Greater China Stock Markets PDF Download

Author: Bin Hu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 166

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Author: Anders C. Johansson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This paper explores the linkages among the different stock markets in the Greater China region (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan). The empirical findings show no indications of long-run relationships among the markets. There are, however, short-run spillover effects in both returns and volatility in the region. Both China and Hong Kong are affected by mean spillover effects from Taiwan. Volatility in the Hong Kong market spills over into Taiwan, which in turn affects the volatility in the Mainland China market. This means that the Mainland China market is related to other markets, even though the possibilities for outside investments have been limited until recently. Overall, the study shows significant interdependencies among the three markets, a result that has important implications for both policymakers and investors in the region.

Author: Ping Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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In this paper, we have examined stock market linkages between Greater China and the US and Japan in terms of volatility and price spillovers, yielding a few findings, with most of them either offering new evidence or challenging the results in the previous research, and the rest consolidating previous stylish conclusions. It has been established that volatility spillovers are stronger than price spillovers between the Greater China markets and the developed markets of the US and Japan. The dominance effect of developed markets over developing markets does not show up in the present study. Moreover, the extent of influence by the developed market on the developing market is found to be associated with the degree of market openness of the developing economy.

Author: Tao Sun
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451873139
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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This paper focuses on evidence from stock markets as it investigates the spillovers from the United States to mainland China and Hong Kong SAR during the subprime crisis. Using both univariate and multivariate GARCH models, this paper finds that China's stock market is not immune to the financial crisis, as evidenced by the price and volatility spillovers from the United States. In addition, HK's equity returns have exhibited more significant price and volatility spillovers from the United States than China's returns, and past volatility shocks in the United States have a more persistent effect on future volatility in HK than in China, reflecting HK's role as an international financial center. Moreover, the impact of the volatility from the United States on China's stock markets has been more persistent than that from HK, due mainly to the United States as the origin of the subprime crisis. Finally, as expected, the conditional correlation between China and HK has outweighed their conditional correlations with the United States, echoing increasing financial integration between China and HK.

Author: Hung Ngo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16

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Purpose - This paper aims to study the daily returns and volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and four countries in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia).Design/methodology/approach - The analysis uses a vector autoregression with a bivariate GARCHBEKK model to capture return linkage and volatility transmission spanning the period including the pre- and post-2008 Global Financial Crisis.Findings - The main empirical result is that the volatility of the Chinese market has had a significant impact on the other markets in the data sample. For the stock return, linkage between China and other markets seems to be remarkable during and after the Global Financial Crisis. Notably, the findings also indicate that the stock markets are more substantially integrated into the crisis.Practical implications - The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers and institutional investors in the evaluation of investment and asset allocation decisions. The market participants should pay more attention to assess the worth of across linkages among the markets and their volatility transmissions. Additionally, international portfolio managers and hedgers may be better able to understand how the volatility linkage between stock markets interrelated overtime; this situation might provide them benefit in forecasting the behavior of this market by capturing the other market information.Originality/value - This paper would complement the emerging body of existing literature by examining how China stock market impacts on their neighboring countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Furthermore, this is the first investigation capturing return linkage and volatility spill over between China market and the four Southeast Asian markets by using bivariate VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. The authors believe that the results of this research's empirical analysis would amplify the systematic understanding of spillover activities between China stock market and other stock markets.

Author: Decai Zhou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 13

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Considering the mean and the volatility correlation of Chinese and foreign stock market may undergo structural changes because of the reform and opening-up, the paper attempts to incorporate Markov state transition mechanism(MS) into both the VAR model and DCC-MVGARCH model at the same time. Based on that, it constructs the MS-VAR model and MS-DCC-MVGARCH model to empirically verify the nonlinear mean spillover effect and the volatility correlation among the Shanghai, Hong Kong and American stock markets. Empirical research shows that: firstly, there exists differentiating character among the correlation of these stock markets. USA stock market has positive spillover effect on Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, but it is not obvious conversely; at the same time; the volatility correlation between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market is the highest, and it presents periodic volatility, while the volatility correlation between HK and US is the lowest, and it presents a stable fluctuant feature. Secondly, the interaction among the effects of Shanghai, Hong Kong and American Stock Market presents the obvious non-linear feature. The mean spillover effect among these stock markets in state 2 is significantly greater than in state 1; at the same time, the effects of volatility among these stock markets in state 1 is significantly higher than that of in state 2.

Author: Ping Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19

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Book Description
In this paper, we have examined stock market linkages between Greater China and the US and Japan in terms of volatility and price spillovers, yielding a few findings, with most of them either offering new evidence or challenging the results in the previous research, and the rest consolidating previous stylish conclusions. It has been established that volatility spillovers are stronger than price spillovers between the Greater China markets and the developed markets of the US and Japan. The conjecture that developed markets dominate emerging markets in stock market interactions is questioned - such asymmetric dominance of developed markets over developing markets does not show up in the present study where the developing market of China is of a comparable size in relation to the developed markets of Japan and the US. Moreover, the extent of influence by the developed market on the developing market is found to be associated with the degree of market openness of the developing economy.

Author: Gyu-Hyun Moon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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The paper examines the short-run spillover effects of daily stock returns and volatilities between the Samp;P 500 in the U.S. and Shanghai SSE composite in China. First, we find that a structural break occurred in the SSE stock return mean in December 2005. Second, by analyzing modified GARCH (1,1)-M models, we find evidence of a symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effect from the U.S. to the China stock market in the post-break period. Third, we observe the symmetric volatility spillover effect from China to the U.S. in the post-break period.

Author: Xiaojun Song
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 128

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"This paper reviews the commonly used multivariate GARCH models and uses the daily data of the four Greater China region stock markets, namely Hongkong, Shanghai,Shenzhen, and Singapore, and data of Japan as one exogenous variable to investigate the volatility and shocks spillover behavior and to establish the market linkage among the four markets. We find that the volatility spillover between Shanghai and Shenzhen is obvious and correlation contagion is detected. Conditional variance and conditional correlations are time varying and dynamic which conforms to the arguments in most of the literature. Shanghai and Shenzhen present a very high correlation level during the sampling period, varying from 0.75 to 0.98, at some point even near linear correlation, which is not uncommon due to the close interlink between the two markets. Hongkong and Singapore presents a mildly high correlation, varying from 0.25 to 0.9, with an average of 0.62. However, the correlation is very volatile. Results present the convincing evidence that Chinese stock markets are more and more integrated to the global markets and the Greater China region markets are more integrated to each other. There are many obvious correlation breaks, when all the correlations suddenly drop to a drastically low level. The drop corresponds to the actual economic event as we discover."--Author's abstract.

Author: Wei Chi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 392

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This thesis analyses three sets of issues: 1) the cyclical behaviour of the Chinese stock markets, 2) the fitness of using realized volatility (RV) in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, and 3) the volatility spillover between the Chinese and Australian stock markets. After conducting an extensive literature review, the thesis examines the three sets of issues separately.First, a Markov regime switching model is applied to analyse the bull and bear cycles in the Chinese stock market, since the cycles of bull and bear markets can reflect economic development and investor confidence. Specifically, grouping stocks by industry and firm size, the results show the following: 1) Bear cycles between stocks and the index overlap heavily, indicating strong herding effects. A long bear market cycle is found and can be explained by widely diversified stock performance across the markets. 2) Certain shocks to one industry could have different impacts on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. 3) Firm size can have a significant impact on the performance of stocks in bull or bear cycles.The second topic focuses on estimating the RV of the Chinese stock markets and comparing it with the GARCH model. The actual volatility is inherently unobserved, while the RV could be treated as being directly observable and then be used to study time-varying behaviour and forecasting. Thus, a large number of studies use RV in GARCH models for volatility analysis. However, there is yet no study that discusses the correlation between RV and GARCH while using RV in GARCH models. This could lead to bias in estimation because of the different properties of RV and GARCH. The results show that GARCH models combined with RV could be more suitable for estimating volatility for large firms. When the firms are grouped in terms of positive/negative returns, similar results are found as when firms are grouped by firm size.The third topic estimates the volatility spillover between the Chinese and Australian stock markets, motivated by the lack of attention to spillover between these two markets in the literature. While economic interdependence between Australia and China has soared during the last two decades due to China's tight reliance on Australia's mining and resources, little research attention has been paid to these two countries. This study fills the literature gap and assesses the volatility spillover between the Chinese and Australian stock markets based on the CSI300 and ASX200 industry indices. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first study using Chinese industry data to discuss volatility spillover. The key findings of the thesis are that volatility spillover across these two markets is bidirectional, while there is one-sided or insignificant spillover across industries between these two countries. The findings of the thesis fill the literature gap, help clarify the debate about volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market and the world market, and provide a clearer idea of the channels through which volatility is transmitted across countries.