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Author: Gaurav Singhal Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA's global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.
Author: Gaurav Singhal Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA's global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.
Author: Elena Pallarès López Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 194
Book Description
It is widely known that wind and wave predictions in the nearshore are less precise for semi enclosed domains than in the open ocean. The Catalan coast is a clear example of this situation, with a wave climate controlled by short fetches, complex bathymetry, high wind field variability in time and space, and sea and swell waves combined that generate bimodal spectra. These characteristics, typical for a semi-enclosed basin, limit the reliability of wave predictions in the area, with errors on the significant wave height around 10% and a clear under-prediction of the wave period with errors around 30%. The motivation of this work is to improve the actual wave forecasting abilities for the Catalan Coast using the SWAN v.4091 wave model. In order to achieve this goal, three working lines are considered: (1)adapting the model to the Catalan coast conditions, tuning the wave growth rates included in the model to better reproduce the observed values, (2) evaluate the effect of the currents and wind into the wave field by using a coupled system and (3) consider the use of unstructured grids as an alternative to the traditionally nested systems in order to obtain high resolution wave forecasts in coastal areas reducing the computational time and avoiding the use of internal boundary conditions with their associated errors. The results obtained support previous studies where the limited ability of the models to reproduce wave growth rates in young seas have been detected. The whitecapping term correction proposed in this document helps reducing under-prediction of the wave period observed with almost no effect on the significant wave height. This correction can be applied to similar environments. However, the proposed formulation is only suitable for the early stages of generation and should be discontinued after waves reach a certain maturity. Two coupling strategies are considered, a one-way coupling where current fields are directly introduced into the wave model, and a two-way coupling where the waves, currents and winds models run in parallel. The effects of the coupling are evaluated during calm periods but also during energetic events. The results show that during calm conditions the coupling does hardly improve the results while during energetic events, such as superficial currents intensifications or wind jet events, the coupling has greater importance. However, the two-way coupling has extremely high computational requirements, not always available. In this sense, the use of unstructured grids as an alternative to the traditional nested systems is presented. The main benefit of unstructured grids is that allows working with a single grid with different resolutions in each sub-domain, improving the resolution in coastal areas. Other advantage is the capacity to better reproduce the sharp coastline and the areas around the islands. The design of unstructured grids has been shown as one of the most delicate parts of this methodology, requiring special attention for the grid generation criteria. The validation of the results, performed with buoy measurements in the nearshore but also for the entire domain with altimetry measurements, allows stating that unstructured grids perform correctly in the study area. Finally, the proposed work suitability for an operational forecasting system has been considered. The whitecapping term modification is proven to be decisive in the quality of the wave forecast, while the coupling is not always recommended depending on computational capabilities. The use of unstructured grids with a regional triangular mesh covering the entire Western Mediterranean sea is considered as the first option, providing accurate high resolution wave conditions near the coast with a clear reduction of the computational time in comparison with a traditional nested system.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309388805 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 351
Book Description
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author: Christopher N. K. Mooers Publisher: American Geophysical Union ISBN: Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 544
Book Description
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Coastal and Estuarine Studies, Volume 56. Coastal Ocean Prediction is being published during a period when operational coastal ocean prediction systems are emerging in Europe, Asia, Australia, and North America. Some of these systems are linked to activities of the Global Ocean Observing System, sponsored by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environmental Program, and the International Council of Scientific Unions. The Global Ocean Observing System is itself an emergent program of model?]based operational (i.e., continual and governmentally sanctioned) monitoring with coastal ocean, as well as fully global, components.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
The development and implementation of a real-time ocean forecast system based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) off the coast of central California are described. The ROMS configuration consists of three nested modeling domains with increasing spatial resolutions: the US West coastal ocean at 15-km resolution, the central California coastal ocean at 5 km, and the Monterey Bay region at 1.5km. All three nested models have 32 vertical sigma (or terrain-following) layers and were integrated in conjunction with a three-dimensional variational data assimilation algorithm (3DVAR) to produce snapshots of the ocean state every 6 h (the reanalysis) and 48-h forecasts once a day. This ROMS forecast system was operated in real time during the field experiment known as the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) in August 2003. After the field experiment, a number of improvements were made to the ROMS forecast system: more data were added in the reanalysis with more careful quality control procedures, improvements were made in the data assimilation scheme, as well as model surface and side boundary conditions. The results from the ROMS reanalysis are presented here. The ROMS reanalysis is first compared with the assimilated data as a consistency check. An evaluation of the ROMS reanalysis against the independent measurements that are not assimilated into the model is then presented. This evaluation shows the mean differences in temperature and salinity between reanalysis and observations to be less than 1 deg C and 0.2 psu (practical salinity unit), respectively, with root-mean-square (RMS) differences of less than 1.5 deg C and 0.25 psu. Qualitative agreement is found between independent current measurements and the ROMS reanalysis. The agreement is particularly good for the vertically integrated current along the offshore glider tracks: the ROMS reanalysis can realistically reproduce the poleward California Undercurrent.
Author: Gaurav Singhal
Author: Gaurav Singhal
Author: Elena Pallarès López
Author: 
Author: Defense Documentation Center (U.S.)
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: Christopher N. K. Mooers
Author: Great Britain. Environment Agency
Author: 
Author: 
Author: