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Author: Maria Letizia Guerra Publisher: Infinite Study ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 15
Book Description
Value at Risk (VaR) has become a crucial measure for decision making in risk management over the last thirty years and many estimation methodologies address the finding of the best performing measure at taking into account unremovable uncertainty of real financial markets. One possible and promising way to include uncertainty is to refer to the mathematics of fuzzy numbers and to its rigorous methodologies which offer flexible ways to read and to interpret properties of real data which may arise in many areas. The paper aims to show the effectiveness of two distinguished models to account for uncertainty in VaR computation; initially, following a non parametric approach, we apply the Fuzzy-transform approximation function to smooth data by capturing fundamental patterns before computing VaR.
Author: Maria Letizia Guerra Publisher: Infinite Study ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 15
Book Description
Value at Risk (VaR) has become a crucial measure for decision making in risk management over the last thirty years and many estimation methodologies address the finding of the best performing measure at taking into account unremovable uncertainty of real financial markets. One possible and promising way to include uncertainty is to refer to the mathematics of fuzzy numbers and to its rigorous methodologies which offer flexible ways to read and to interpret properties of real data which may arise in many areas. The paper aims to show the effectiveness of two distinguished models to account for uncertainty in VaR computation; initially, following a non parametric approach, we apply the Fuzzy-transform approximation function to smooth data by capturing fundamental patterns before computing VaR.
Author: Didier Dubois Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1468452878 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
In the evolution of scientific theories, concern with uncertainty is almost invariably a concomitant of maturation. This is certainly true of the evolution· of physics, economics, operations research, communication sciences, and a host of other fields. And it is true of what has been happening more recently in the area of artificial intelligence, most notably in the development of theories relating to the management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. In science, it is traditional to deal with uncertainty through the use of probability theory. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that there are some important facets of uncertainty which do not lend themselves to analysis by classical probability-based methods. One such facet is that of lexical elasticity, which relates to the fuzziness of words in natural languages. As a case in point, even a simple relation X, Y, and Z, expressed as if X is small and Y is very large then between Z is not very small, does not lend itself to a simple interpretation within the framework of probability theory by reason of the lexical elasticity of the predicates small and large.
Author: Bingyuan Cao Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642036643 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 1687
Book Description
This book is the proceedings of the Third International Conference on Fuzzy Information and Engineering (ICFIE 2009) held in the famous mountain city Chongqing in Southwestern China, from September 26-29, 2009. Only high-quality papers are included. The ICFIE 2009, built on the success of previous conferences, the ICFIE 2007 (Guangzhou, China), is a major symposium for scientists, engineers and practitioners in the world to present their updated results, ideas, developments and applications in all areas of fuzzy information and engineering. It aims to strengthen relations between industry research laboratories and universities, and to create a primary symposium for world scientists in fuzzy fields as follows: Fuzzy Information; Fuzzy Sets and Systems; Soft Computing; Fuzzy Engineering; Fuzzy Operation Research and Management; Artificial Intelligence; Fuzzy Mathematics and Systems in Applications, etc.
Author: Yasuo Narukawa Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642048196 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 382
Book Description
This volume contains papers presented at the 6th International Conference on ModelingDecisionsforArti?cialIntelligence(MDAI2009),heldinAwajiIsland, Japan, November 30 – December 2, 2009. This conference followed MDAI 2004 (Barcelona, Catalonia), MDAI 2005 (Tsukuba, Japan), MDAI 2006 (Tarragona, Catalonia), MDAI 2007 (Kitakyushu, Japan), and MDAI 2008 (Sabadell, C- alonia) with proceedings also published in the LNAI series (Vols. 3131, 3558, 3885, 4617, and 5285). The aim of this conference was to provide a forum for researchers to d- cuss the theory and tools for modeling decisions, as well as applications that encompass decision-making processes and information-fusion techniques. The organizers received 61 papers from 15 di?erent countries, from Asia, Europe,andAmerica,28ofwhicharepublishedinthis volume.Eachsubmission received at least two reviews from the Program Committee and a few external reviewers. We would like to express our gratitude to them for their work. The plenary talks presented at the conference are also included in this volume. The conference was supported by the Commemorative Organization for The JapanWorldExposition'70,the TsutomuNakauchiFoundation,HyogoInter- tional Association, the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers (ISCIE),the OperationsResearchSocietyofJapan(ORSJ),the UNESCO Chair in Data Privacy, the Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Intelligent Informatics (SOFT), the Catalan Association for Arti?cial Intelligence (ACIA), the Eu- pean Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology (EUSFLAT), and the Spanish MEC (ARES - CONSOLIDER INGENIO 2010 CSD2007-00004).
Author: Pei Zheng Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9491216287 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 294
Book Description
Humans employ mostly natural languages in describing and representing problems, c- puting and reasoning, arriving at ?nal conclusions described similarly as words in a natural language or as the form of mental perceptions. To make machines imitate humans’ mental activities, the key point in terms of machine intelligence is to process uncertain information by means of natural languages with vague and imprecise concepts. Zadeh (1996a) proposed a concept of Computing with Words (CWW) to model and c- pute with linguistic descriptions that are propositions drawn from a natural language. CWW, followed the concept of linguistic variables (Zadeh, 1975a,b) and fuzzy sets (Zadeh, 1965), has been developed intensively and opened several new vast research ?elds as well as applied in various areas, particularly in the area of arti?cial intelligence. Zadeh (1997, 2005) emphasized that the core conceptions in CWW are linguistic variables and fuzzy logic (or approximate reasoning). In a linguistic variable, each linguistic value is explained by a fuzzy set (also called semantics of the linguistic value), its membership function is de?ned on the universe of discourse of the linguistic variable. By fuzzy sets, linguistic information or statements are quanti?ed by membership functions, and infor- tion propagation is performed by approximate reasoning. The use of linguistic variables implies processes of CWW such as their fusion, aggregation, and comparison. Different computational approaches in the literature addressed those processes (Wang, 2001; Zadeh and Kacprzyk, 1999a, b). Membership functions are generally at the core of many fuzzy-set theories based CWW.
Author: Begoña Vitoriano Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9491216740 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 333
Book Description
Disaster management is a process or strategy that is implemented when any type of catastrophic event takes place. The process may be initiated when anything threatens to disrupt normal operations or puts the lives of human beings at risk. Governments on all levels as well as many businesses create some sort of disaster plan that make it possible to overcome the catastrophe and return to normal function as quickly as possible. Response to natural disasters (e.g., floods, earthquakes) or technological disaster (e.g., nuclear, chemical) is an extreme complex process that involves severe time pressure, various uncertainties, high non-linearity and many stakeholders. Disaster management often requires several autonomous agencies to collaboratively mitigate, prepare, respond, and recover from heterogeneous and dynamic sets of hazards to society. Almost all disasters involve high degrees of novelty to deal with most unexpected various uncertainties and dynamic time pressures. Existing studies and approaches within disaster management have mainly been focused on some specific type of disasters with certain agency oriented. There is a lack of a general framework to deal with similarities and synergies among different disasters by taking their specific features into account. This book provides with various decisions analysis theories and support tools in complex systems in general and in disaster management in particular. The book is also generated during a long-term preparation of a European project proposal among most leading experts in the areas related to the book title. Chapters are evaluated based on quality and originality in theory and methodology, application oriented, relevance to the title of the book.
Author: Chongfu Huang Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0203771478 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 965
Book Description
In this present internet age, risk analysis and crisis response based on information will make up a digital world full of possibilities and improvements to people‘s daily life and capabilities. These services will be supported by more intelligent systems and more effective decisionmaking. This book contains all the papers presented at the 4th Inter
Author: Hamidreza Seiti Publisher: Infinite Study ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 15
Book Description
Fuzzy sets were initially proposed to address ambiguities and uncertainties. However, in certain cases, the fuzzy sets show some degree of uncertainty and risk, when the available data are either obtained from unreliable sources or related to future events. To solve this problem, the R-numbers methodology has been recently developed as a powerful approach to model the risk of fuzzy sets and numbers due to risk factors. In R-numbers, only the variability of x values has been taken into account in risk modeling of the fuzzy sets, but not their membership function.
Author: Yong Fang Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540779264 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 170
Book Description
Most of the existing portfolio selection models are based on the probability theory. Though they often deal with the uncertainty via probabilistic - proaches, we have to mention that the probabilistic approaches only partly capture the reality. Some other techniques have also been applied to handle the uncertainty of the ?nancial markets, for instance, the fuzzy set theory [Zadeh (1965)]. In reality, many events with fuzziness are characterized by probabilistic approaches, although they are not random events. The fuzzy set theory has been widely used to solve many practical problems, including ?nancial risk management. By using fuzzy mathematical approaches, quan- tative analysis, qualitative analysis, the experts’ knowledge and the investors’ subjective opinions can be better integrated into a portfolio selection model. The contents of this book mainly comprise of the authors’ research results for fuzzy portfolio selection problems in recent years. In addition, in the book, the authors will also introduce some other important progress in the ?eld of fuzzy portfolio optimization. Some fundamental issues and problems of po- folioselectionhavebeenstudiedsystematicallyandextensivelybytheauthors to apply fuzzy systems theory and optimization methods. A new framework for investment analysis is presented in this book. A series of portfolio sel- tion models are given and some of them might be more e?cient for practical applications. Some application examples are given to illustrate these models by using real data from the Chinese securities markets.
Author: Publisher: IOS Press ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 10439
Author: Maria Letizia Guerra
Author: Maria Letizia Guerra
Author: Didier Dubois
Author: Bingyuan Cao
Author: Yasuo Narukawa
Author: Pei Zheng
Author: Begoña Vitoriano
Author: Chongfu Huang
Author: Hamidreza Seiti
Author: Yong Fang
Author: