Using Hydrologic Model Ensembles to Better Understand the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Large River Basins PDF Download

Author: Oriana Shackell Chegwidden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 103

View

Book Description
Whether at the scale of a small watershed or a large multinational basin, it has become common practice for water managers to use ensembles of projections to plan for hydrologic change. Better understanding these ensembles can help improve the design of future hydrologic modeling studies. In this dissertation I will describe three uses of hydroclimate ensembles to support water resource planning efforts. In Chapter 2 I present a large ensemble of hydrologic climate change projections for the Columbia River basin within the hydroclimatically diverse Pacific Northwestern United States and Canada (PNW). I show how methodological decisions in the modeling process variously affect the projections of change depending on hydroclimatic regime and metric of interest. In Chapter 3 I delve deeper into the PNW to examine the impactful metric of changes in floods, determining how dominant flood generating processes will evolve under climate change. I also calculate first-order sensitivities of high flows to changes in climate. In Chapter 4, I apply the lessons learned from the first two studies, conducted within the transboundary Columbia River basin, to transboundary rivers around the world. I present a study identifying hot spots of changes in water availability and hydropolitical risk for over 80 rivers (esp. transboundary rivers) around the world as projected by results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Finally, I present how the findings from this dissertation can contribute to improved hydroclimate impacts assessments.

Author: C. Fai Fung
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1444348175
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 215

View

Book Description
The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.

Author: Eusebio Mercedes Ingol-Blanco
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 190

View

Book Description
Water resources availability could be affected by alterations of hydrologic processes as a result of climate change. Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on water systems with increasing flooding and drought events. This investigation presents the modeling of climate change effects on the hydrology and water resources availability in the Rio Conchos basin, the main tributary of the lower portion of the bi-national Rio Grande/Bravo basin, and its impact on the water treaty signed between the United States of America and Mexico in 1944. One of the problems most relevant to the study basin is the frequent occurrence of long drought periods. Coupled with increased water demands and low irrigation efficiencies, the competition for water resources is high on both sides of the border. Three main parts are addressed in this research. First, a hydrologic model has been developed using the one-dimensional, 2 layer soil moisture accounting scheme embedded in a water evaluation and planning model. Second, downscaled precipitation and temperature data, from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios, A1B and A2, were used as inputs to the Rio Conchos hydrologic model to determine the effect on basin hydrology. A multi-model ensemble is developed and several techniques, such as probability density functions, wavelet analysis, and trend analysis, are used to assess the impacts. Third, a water resources planning model for the basin has been developed, which integrates the hydrologic model and water management modeling, to evaluate the impacts on the entire water system and simulate adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change in the study basin. Skill-weighted multi-model ensemble results show that annual average runoff may be reduced by 12% ± 53% and 20% ± 45% in 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for the A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. Likewise, results show that reliability and resiliency of the water system will tend to decrease; consequently, the vulnerability of the system increases over time. Proposed adaptation measures could make the system more reliable and less vulnerable in meeting water demands for irrigation and municipal uses.

Author: Allison Marshall Inouye
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hydrologic models
Languages : en
Pages : 73

View

Book Description
In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho, to explore how climate change may affect water resources and identify strategies that may help mitigate the impacts. The 8,300 square kilometer region in central Idaho contains a mixture of public and private land ownership, a diversity of landcover ranging from steep forested headwaters to expansive desert shrublands to a concentrated area of urban development that has experienced a quadrupling of population since the 1970s. With nearly 60% of precipitation falling as winter snow, stakeholders expressed concern regarding the vulnerability of the quantity and timing of seasonal snowpack as well as surface water supplies used primarily for agricultural irrigation under projected climate change. Here, we achieve two objectives. The first is the development of a hydrologic model to represent the dynamics of the surface water system in the Big Wood Basin. We use the semi-distributed model Envision-Flow to represent surface water hydrology, reservoir operations, and agricultural irrigation. We calibrated the model using a multi-criteria objective function that considered three metrics related to streamflow and one metric related to snow water equivalent. The model achieved higher an efficiency of 0.74 for the main stem of the Big Wood River and 0.50 for the Camas Creek tributary during the validation period. The second objective is an analysis of the Big Wood Basin hydrology under alternative future climate scenarios. We forced the calibrated model with three downscaled CMIP5 climate model inputs representing a range of possible future conditions over the period 2010-2070. The climate models simulate an increase in basin average annual air temperature ranging from 1.6-5.7oC in the 2060s compared to the 1980-2009 average. The climate models show less of a clear trend regarding precipitation but in general, one model simulates precipitation patterns similar to historic, one is slightly wetter than historic, and one is slightly drier than historic by the mid-21st century. Under these future climate scenarios, the depth of April 1 SWE may decline by as much as 92% in the 2060s compared to the historic average. Mid to high elevations exhibit the largest reductions in SWE. Simulated streamflows show a shift in timing, with peak flows occurring up to three weeks earlier and center of timing from two to seven weeks earlier in the 2050-2069 period compared to the historic period. Reduced peak flows of 14-70% were simulated by mid-century. The simulated total annual streamflow, though, fell within the historic interquartile range for most years in the future period. These and other metrics considered suggest that the surface water hydrology of the Big Wood Basin is likely to be impacted by climate change. If the natural water storage provided by the annual snowpack is reduced and timing of streamflows shifts, water resource use and management may need to change in the future. This work provides a foundation from which to explore alternative management scenarios. The approach used here can be transferred to other watersheds to further assess how water resources may be affected by climate change.

Author: Assefa M. Melesse
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128159995
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 580

View

Book Description
Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation

Author: Michael Finkel
Publisher: IWA Publishing
ISBN: 1843393727
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 113

View

Book Description
Advanced Tools and Models to Improve River Basin Management in Europe in the Context of Climate Change - AquaTerra has developed from an integrated project of the 6th EU RTD Framework Programme that aims to provide the scientific basis for an improved river basin management through a better understanding of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system as a whole, by integrating both natural and socio-economics aspects at different temporal and spatial scales. This book aims: To provide better understanding of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system at various temporal and spatial scales To relate expected climate alterations to changes in deposition, mobility and distribution of pollutants in European river basins To provide the scientific basis for improved river basin management To introduce novel tools for water and soil quality monitoring To show the necessity of integrated modelling frameworks for impact evaluation of pollution as well as climate and land-use changes for definition of long-term management schemes The work illustrates the dynamic behavior of the pathway of pollutants in soils, groundwater, surface water and sediments. It highlights the fundamental importance of integrating knowledge from several combined disciplines on various environmental compartments in order to understand the large number of processes that govern pollutant input, transport and turnover. Results shows that a significant step forward has been made in the development new analytical methods and of process-based numerical models that are capable of making predictions of likely trends and environmental changes to be expected in the near or distant future at the basin-scale. These models can be used e.g. to generate hydrologic scenarios based on climate models and to simulate pollutant distribution and turnover rates from decades to millennia.

Author: Tamar Zohary
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9401789444
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 674

View

Book Description
This condensed volume summarizes updated knowledge on the warm-monomictic subtropical Lake Kinneret, including its geophysical setting, the dynamics of physical, chemical and biological processes and the major natural and anthropogenic factors that affect this unique aquatic ecosystem. This work expands on a previous monograph on Lake Kinneret published in 1978 and capitalizes on the outcome of more than 40 years of research and monitoring activities. These were intensively integrated with lake management aimed at sustainable use for supply of drinking water, tourism, recreation and fishery. The book chapters are aimed at the limnological community, aquatic ecologists, managers of aquatic ecosystems and other professionals. It presents the geographic and geological setting, the meteorology and hydrology of the region, continues with various aspects of the pelagic and the littoral systems. Finally, the last section of the book addresses lake management, demonstrating how the accumulated knowledge was applied in order to manage this important source of freshwater. The section on the pelagic system comprises the heart of the book, addressing the major physical processes, external and internal loading, the pelagic communities (from bacteria to fish), physiological processes and the major biogeochemical cycles in the lake.

Author: Martina Weiß
Publisher: kassel university press GmbH
ISBN: 3899587596
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 149

View

Book Description

Author: Saeid Eslamian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1466552360
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1920

View

Book Description
While most books examine only the classical aspects of hydrology, this three-volume set covers multiple aspects of hydrology, and includes contributions from experts from more than 30 countries. It examines new approaches, addresses growing concerns about hydrological and ecological connectivity, and considers the worldwide impact of climate change

Author: Saeid Eslamian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1040020380
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 400

View

Book Description
Climate change not only involves rising temperatures but it can also alter the hydro-meteorological parameters of a region and the corresponding changes emerging in the various biotic or abiotic environmental features. One of the results of climate change has been the impact on the sediment yield and its transport. These changes have implications for various other environmental components, particularly soils, water bodies, water quality, land productivity, sedimentation processes, glacier dynamics, and risk management strategies to name a few. This volume provides an overview of the fundamental processes and impacts of climate change on river basin management and examines issues related to soil erosion, sedimentation, and contaminants, as well as rainfall-runoff modeling and flood mitigation strategies. It also includes coverage of climate change fundamentals as well as chapters on related global treaties and policies.