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Author: Ole J. Forsberg Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000205746 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.
Author: Ole J. Forsberg Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000205746 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.
Author: Torrey Maloof Publisher: Shell Education ISBN: 154570046X Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 183
Book Description
Improve understanding of the election process for students in grades 3-5 by introducing and exploring the connections between national, state, and local elections. Students will learn to think critically about the election process while using the provided primary sources to increase comprehension. Featuring simulations, extension activities, and flexible lesson plans, this resource makes exploring the election process with students easy and engaging.
Author: Torrey Maloof Publisher: Teacher Created Materials ISBN: 1425813526 Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 122
Book Description
Provide students in grades K-2 with a clear understanding of government and politics while teaching the voting process and democracy concepts. Teachers will appreciate the flexibility of the lessons, activities, and interactive opportunities that integrate key literacy skills and overall knowledge of the election process through engaging activities that include analyzing and evaluating primary sources, participating in a mock election, making connections between paired fiction and nonfiction texts, and solving engaging mazes and puzzles. Encourage civic discourse with this essential social studies resource!
Author: Jessica Gunderson Publisher: Capstone ISBN: 1543503349 Category : Juvenile Nonfiction Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
When election season starts, the race is on! But what do campaigns, candidates, polls, and the Electoral College have to do with voting for our nation's leaders? Using engaging, age-appropriate language and colorful photos, readers decipher the complex electoral process and learn how to get involved in the next election.
Author: Alexander S. Belenky Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 364223819X Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 443
Book Description
This is the first book on the U.S. presidential election system to analyze the basic principles underlying the design of the existing system and those at the heart of competing proposals for improving the system. The book discusses how the use of some election rules embedded in the U.S. Constitution and in the Presidential Succession Act may cause skewed or weird election outcomes and election stalemates. The book argues that the act may not cover some rare though possible situations which the Twentieth Amendment authorizes Congress to address. Also, the book questions the constitutionality of the National Popular Vote Plan to introduce a direct popular presidential election de facto, without amending the Constitution, and addresses the plan’s “Achilles’ Heel.” In particular, the book shows that the plan may violate the Equal Protection Clause from the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution. Numerical examples are provided to show that the counterintuitive claims of the NPV originators and proponents that the plan will encourage presidential candidates to “chase” every vote in every state do not have any grounds. Finally, the book proposes a plan for improving the election system by combining at the national level the “one state, one vote” principle – embedded in the Constitution – and the “one person, one vote” principle. Under this plan no state loses its current Electoral College benefits while all the states gain more attention of presidential candidates.
Author: Grace Houser Publisher: The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc ISBN: 1508164010 Category : Juvenile Nonfiction Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
It may be surprising to learn that U.S. citizens don't directly vote for their president. The president is actually elected by the Electoral College, a system that has been the subject of great debate in recent years. This informational book explains what the Electoral College is, how it works, and why it was established. Full-color photographs and primary sources help readers make valuable connections with the text. Students will be encouraged to think critically and ask important questions about our nation's election system.
Author: Robert S. Erikson Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226922162 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 221
Book Description
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author: Ole J. Forsberg
Author: Ole J. Forsberg
Author: Torrey Maloof
Author: Chad Vickery
Author: Torrey Maloof
Author: Jessica Gunderson
Author: William C. Kimberling
Author: United States. Federal Election Commission
Author: Alexander S. Belenky
Author: Grace Houser
Author: Robert S. Erikson