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Author: Robert L Ceres Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Cities around the globe are contemplating costly strategies for managing storm surge risk. The overall effectiveness and success of these major infrastructure investments depends upon understanding at least three interrelated areas. First, stakeholders must identify and assess the future risk of storm surges and society's vulnerability to the full spectrum of those risks. Second, stakeholders need to evaluate a wide variety of storm surge risk mitigation strategies against this full spectrum of future risk. Third, policymakers must balance the benefits of risk mitigation against the large investments needed to implements them, as well as numerous other conflicting objectives and concerns of other stakeholders. Research described in this dissertation directly addresses each of these areas. First we use an Observation System Simulation Experiment and ask the simple and decision-relevant question: How fast can we learn from past and potential future storm surge observations about changes in future statistics? We quantify the time required to detect changes in the probability of extreme storm surge events and estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects.Second, we develop a storm surge risk modeling framework, the Island City On a Wedge, to fill the niche between simple storm surge risk models incapable of simulating common characteristics of many coastal cities and complex modeling frameworks that are too computationally expensive to examine and optimize multiple combinations risk mitigation strategies. Using the Island City On a Wedge, we demonstrate that optimal risk mitigation solutions can change if the number of future states of the world, or time span over which the analysis is conducted changes. We couple the Island City On a Wedge to multiple objective evolutionary optimization algorithms and demonstrate the ability to assess storm surge risk and optimize complex risk mitigation strategies. We find that incorporating combinations of various defensive strategies can improve the financial effectiveness of risk mitigation investments.Lastly, we demonstrate the ability of the Island City On a Wedge to model storm surge risk in Manhattan and find Pareto optimal solutions balancing multiple stakeholder objectives and demonstrate the ability to effectively visualize the compromises inherent in any such trade off analysis.
Author: Robert L Ceres Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Cities around the globe are contemplating costly strategies for managing storm surge risk. The overall effectiveness and success of these major infrastructure investments depends upon understanding at least three interrelated areas. First, stakeholders must identify and assess the future risk of storm surges and society's vulnerability to the full spectrum of those risks. Second, stakeholders need to evaluate a wide variety of storm surge risk mitigation strategies against this full spectrum of future risk. Third, policymakers must balance the benefits of risk mitigation against the large investments needed to implements them, as well as numerous other conflicting objectives and concerns of other stakeholders. Research described in this dissertation directly addresses each of these areas. First we use an Observation System Simulation Experiment and ask the simple and decision-relevant question: How fast can we learn from past and potential future storm surge observations about changes in future statistics? We quantify the time required to detect changes in the probability of extreme storm surge events and estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects.Second, we develop a storm surge risk modeling framework, the Island City On a Wedge, to fill the niche between simple storm surge risk models incapable of simulating common characteristics of many coastal cities and complex modeling frameworks that are too computationally expensive to examine and optimize multiple combinations risk mitigation strategies. Using the Island City On a Wedge, we demonstrate that optimal risk mitigation solutions can change if the number of future states of the world, or time span over which the analysis is conducted changes. We couple the Island City On a Wedge to multiple objective evolutionary optimization algorithms and demonstrate the ability to assess storm surge risk and optimize complex risk mitigation strategies. We find that incorporating combinations of various defensive strategies can improve the financial effectiveness of risk mitigation investments.Lastly, we demonstrate the ability of the Island City On a Wedge to model storm surge risk in Manhattan and find Pareto optimal solutions balancing multiple stakeholder objectives and demonstrate the ability to effectively visualize the compromises inherent in any such trade off analysis.
Author: B. John Garrick Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0080923453 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 374
Book Description
The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks
Author: H. Kremer Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9789400767126 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Storm surges represent a major hazard for many coastal regions worldwide. The 1953 and 1962 catastrophes are well remembered in Europe, and recent incidents in Bangladesh and Myanmar caused over 100,000 casualties. Developing innovative responses and overcoming the frequently fragmented discussion about this global phenomenon and its regional implications call for improved knowledge of present risks and future conditions based on sound interdisciplinary approaches. This selection of articles presents multiple scientific and management oriented perspectives on current and future storm surges, covering the fields of observing, modelling and forecasting, risk and vulnerability analysis, planning and innovative coastal protection concepts. It originates from the international ‘2010 Storm Surges Congress - Risk and Management of Current and Future Storm Surges,’ initiated and organized by the Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (formerly the GKSS-Research Centre) in collaboration with the KlimaCampus (CliSAP) of the University of Hamburg, Germany. The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) co-sponsored the event and its international project office (IPO) provided the necessary organizational support. The congress was generously supported by international and national partners. Some highlights: Remote sensing surveillance and mapping of storm surge extent based on NASA MODIS sensors may ultimately provide new global insights into the vulnerability of deltas where human pressures outbalance natural land-ocean forcing. Up-scaling hazard lines and risk mapping from local to full continental scale is the ambition in India. From an insurance risk perspective, its societal perception and economic issues determine societal response options. In urban contexts flood risk is anticipated as a combination of climate change-induced sea level rise and socio-economic drivers. A cost-benefit analysis of flood defence in London underlines the fact that future investment will be highly beneficial; thoughtful planning rather than rushing to new engineering solutions is preferable. Several modelling case studies and approaches are presented, covering the effects of individual storms, the development of analytical models that can help us to understand relevant processes and mechanisms, and sensitivity studies that test the impact and relevance of various physical processes for storm surge generation and evolution. Hydrodynamic models applied to different emission scenarios suggest that the threat of extreme storm surges in the North Sea may increase but strong decadal fluctuations and internal variability need to be considered. A Korean study suggests that future global warming may not always lead to an increase in the number of intense cyclones or the magnitude of associated storm surges. Past and recent storm surges arising at the dune coast of France call for improved assessment and management of a growing flood risk in future sea-level rise projections. In the same context rather than deterministic approaches, considering the uncertainties that influence extreme water levels can significantly improve the design levels of coastal structures and flood defences. The innovative Dutch “Building with Nature” concept employs natural processes for coastal flood protection. Previously published in Natural Hazards, Volume 66, No. 3, 2013
Author: Committee on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Resources Science, Engineering, and Planning: Coastal Risk Reduction Publisher: ISBN: 9780309305860 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Hurricane- and coastal-storm-related losses have increased substantially during the past century, largely due to increases in population and development in the most susceptible coastal areas. Climate change poses additional threats to coastal communities from sea level rise and possible increases in strength of the largest hurricanes. Several large cities in the United States have extensive assets at risk to coastal storms, along with countless smaller cities and developed areas. The devastation from Superstorm Sandy has heightened the nation's awareness of these vulnerabilities. What can we do to better prepare for and respond to the increasing risks of loss? Reducing Coastal Risk on the East and Gulf Coasts reviews the coastal risk-reduction strategies and levels of protection that have been used along the United States East and Gulf Coasts to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding associated with storm surges. This report evaluates their effectiveness in terms of economic return, protection of life safety, and minimization of environmental effects. According to this report, the vast majority of the funding for coastal risk-related issues is provided only after a disaster occurs. This report calls for the development of a national vision for coastal risk management that includes a long-term view, regional solutions, and recognition of the full array of economic, social, environmental, and life-safety benefits that come from risk reduction efforts. To support this vision, Reducing Coastal Risk states that a national coastal risk assessment is needed to identify those areas with the greatest risks that are high priorities for risk reduction efforts. The report discusses the implications of expanding the extent and levels of coastal storm surge protection in terms of operation and maintenance costs and the availability of resources. Reducing Coastal Risk recommends that benefit-cost analysis, constrained by acceptable risk criteria and other important environmental and social factors, be used as a framework for evaluating national investments in coastal risk reduction. The recommendations of this report will assist engineers, planners and policy makers at national, regional, state, and local levels to move from a nation that is primarily reactive to coastal disasters to one that invests wisely in coastal risk reduction and builds resilience among coastal communities.
Author: Howard Kunreuther Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press ISBN: 0812296222 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 415
Book Description
Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Västfjäll, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.
Author: David R. Godschalk Publisher: Duke Press Policy Studies ISBN: Category : Architecture Languages : en Pages : 296
Book Description
As people cluster on the coast in increasing numbers, coastal populations become more vulnerable to severe damage from catastrophic coastal storms. The authors contented that current public policy has proved unable to cope with the growing problem, and in response they present a comprehensive analysis of coastal storm hazards, standard policy approaches, and promising new means of managing coastal growth. Catastrophic Coastal Storms offers a solution to the policy problem by proposing a merger of hazard mitigation with development management, basing this on extensive surveys of at-risk coastal locations and case studies of post-hurricane recovery. Starting with the local level of government and proceeding to state and federal levels, the authors propose a strategy for overcoming the formidable obstacles to safeguarding the shoreline population and its structures from hurricanes and other severe storms.
Author: S.C. Bhargava Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0415621445 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 462
Book Description
This book, written for the benefit of engineering students and practicing engineers alike, is the culmination of the author's four decades of experience related to the subject of electrical measurements, comprising nearly 30 years of experimental research and more than 15 years of teaching at several engineering institutions. The unique feature of this book, apart from covering the syllabi of various universities, is the style of presentation of all important aspects and features of electrical measurements, with neatly and clearly drawn figures, diagrams and colour and b/w photos that illustrate details of instruments among other things, making the text easy to follow and comprehend. Enhancing the chapters are interspersed explanatory comments and, where necessary, footnotes to help better understanding of the chapter contents. Also, each chapter begins with a "recall" to link the subject matter with the related science or phenomenon and fundamental background. The first few chapters of the book comprise "Units, Dimensions and Standards"; "Electricity, Magnetism and Electromagnetism" and "Network Analysis". These topics form the basics of electrical measurements and provide a better understanding of the main topics discussed in later chapters. The last two chapters represent valuable assets of the book, and relate to (a) "Magnetic Measurements", describing many unique features not easily available elsewhere, a good study of which is essential for the design and development of most electric equipment – from motors to transformers and alternators, and (b) "Measurement of Non-electrical Quantities", dealing extensively with the measuring techniques of a number of variables that constitute an important requirement of engineering measurement practices. The book is supplemented by ten appendices covering various aspects dealing with the art and science of electrical measurement and of relevance to some of the topics in main chapters. Other useful features of the book include an elaborate chapter-by-chapter list of symbols, worked examples, exercises and quiz questions at the end of each chapter, and extensive authors' and subject index. This book will be of interest to all students taking courses in electrical measurements as a part of a B.Tech. in electrical engineering. Professionals in the field of electrical engineering will also find the book of use.
Author: Alanna Simpson, Rick Murnane, Keiko Saito, Emma Phillips, Robert Reid, Anne Himmelfarb Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
"Across the globe, a consensus is emerging on the central importance of risk information in disaster risk management. When risks are quantified and the potential impacts of hazards are anticipated, governments, communities, and individuals are able to make more informed decisions. This publication highlights some of the influential efforts—by technical specialists, institutions, and governments around the world—to create and communicate risk information quickly and at low cost, to improve the quality and transparency of risk information, and to enable more local engagement in the production of authoritative risk information than ever before. Case studies spanning 40 countries and contributed by more than 50 institutions showcase emerging best practices, demonstrate how risk assessments are being used to inform disaster risk management and broader development, and highlight lessons learned through these efforts. "
Author: Robert L Ceres
Author: Robert L Ceres
Author: B. John Garrick
Author: H. Kremer
Author: Committee on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Resources Science, Engineering, and Planning: Coastal Risk Reduction
Author: 
Author: United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Author: Howard Kunreuther
Author: David R. Godschalk
Author: S.C. Bhargava
Author: Alanna Simpson, Rick Murnane, Keiko Saito, Emma Phillips, Robert Reid, Anne Himmelfarb