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Author: Francois Trahan Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118134095 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Author: Francois Trahan Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118134095 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Author: Avinash K. Dixit Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691034109 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 484
Book Description
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Author: Dimitrios Asteriou Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper studies the interactions between uncertainty, investment and economic growth. Utilizing panel data for a sample of 59 industrial and developing countries between 1966 and 1992, we estimate reduced form equations to explore the possible effects of uncertainty on economic growth and investments. Uncertainty reduces both investment and growth.
Author: Aymo Brunetti Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 9780821341599 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
Looking decades ahead into the future, many informed observers see China moving steadily to the top of the world's economic league. Several sources, including the OECD, forecast that the country will be the world's largest economy by 2020. China's urban economy has been the driving force behind the country's recent trends of accelerated growth. By the same token, deterioration in the urban centers could constrain future growth. The Dynamics of Urban Growth in Three Chinese Cities looks at the interplay between geography, size, and industrial structure that determines the industrial vigor of cities. Their conclusions, abundantly illustrated through the experience of the Chinese cities of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou, is that each of these factors must be made to work for the city through effective policymaking. The authors compare these cities with each other in the context of the changes sweeping China's economy, review their history and their reform programs from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, and examine their infrastructure and human capital. The volume includes maps of the cities and their outlying areas and of China's road and rail system, as well as figures depicting the industrial structure of each city. Published for the World Bank by Oxford University Press.
Author: Martin Feldstein Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226241750 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 523
Book Description
These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.
Author: Ian C. MacMillan Publisher: Pearson Prentice Hall ISBN: 0132716011 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 177
Book Description
“This book is a must for any Business Development Manager, Corporate Strategist, R&D Director, and anyone else who is accountable for growth in a corporation. It is an easy read that is practical and not fraught with useless academic theories.” Ron Pierantozzi, Ph.D., CEO of PPT Research and Former Director, Business Development, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. A Breakthrough Approach to Investing in Business Innovation Most companies analyze investments using tools that bias them against real innovation and lead them to avoid their best opportunities. This book introduces a breakthrough alternative: Opportunity Engineering. Drawing upon recent advances in financial analysis, but without requiring a lot of math, the authors show how to engineer the risk out of uncertain opportunities so you can pursue more high-payoff innovations. You’ll learn how to escape from the “go/no-go vise” and implement more flexible decision-making that considers all the business alternatives, models, and opportunities associated with each project. You’ll learn how to systematically structure high-potential projects to limit downside exposure and boost your potential upside. The authors show how to define the scope of investment opportunities, identify key drivers of potential profits, document assumptions, design out major risks, and tease out key challenges and vulnerabilities. Using these techniques, you can escape the mindset that limits you to low-impact innovations and begin pursuing serious growth opportunities--and make business uncertainty work for you, not against you. Why companies avoid their best opportunities for innovation Getting past risk-averse analysis that snuffs out experimentation and innovation Systematically engineering your opportunities Capturing the upside, slicing out the downside Beyond rigid “go/no-go” decisions How flexible, staged innovation creates more opportunities for delivering value Constructing an engineered growth portfolio of innovation investments Optimizing your mix of core-enhancing investments and high potential “long shots”
Author: Hanno Dihle Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Abstract: The impact of uncertainty on the decision-making of economic agents, such as firms and households, is a important but often neglected element of micro- and macroeconomic theory. With the onset of the financial crisis in 2007 and the strong increase in uncertainty that accompanied it, the theoretical analysis of this phenomenon has become more important. With the article `The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks', published in 2009, Nicholas Bloom introduced a new facet to the debate surrounding the macroeconomic consequences of uncertainty: the question of what role uncertainty-induced 'real option values' in investment decisions play with regard to business cycle fluctuations. However, the inclusion of real option values in macroeconomic models raises questions that go beyond the effects of uncertainty on the business cycle. In particular, the implementation of specific stochastic processes as the basis of option value analysis, such as the widely used Brownian motion, requires a fundamental theoretical discussion regarding the modeling of uncertainty and its consequences in economic and growth models. The aim of this dissertation is a comprehensive discussion and further development of the theoretical effects of uncertainty in macroeconomic models against the background of the theory of real option values, with a strong focus on the implications of stochastic diffusion processes. The first article examines the effects of uncertainty in the euro crisis. Within a partial investment model, two kinds of uncertainty are introduced: volatility and disaster risk. The article expands the literature by integrating a jump-diffusion process into an entry-exit framework for investment decisions. In addition, SVAR estimates are made for a new country data set on uncertainty. The second article implements uncertainty and irreversibility in a growth model with monopolistic competition. The model integrates both micro- and macroeconomic uncertainty modeled as Brownian motions. The article provides a comprehensive picture of short- and long-term volatility effects. The third article expands the model with a jump-diffusion process to investigate the influence of uncertainty in a development-economic context. The paper expands the literature in the field of development economics with a model that illustrates the effects of different uncertainty shocks on the development process. In the fourth article, the model developed in the second article ...
Author: Nancy L. Stokey Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 0674735188 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 607
Book Description
This rigorous but brilliantly lucid book presents a self-contained treatment of modern economic dynamics. Stokey, Lucas, and Prescott develop the basic methods of recursive analysis and illustrate the many areas where they can usefully be applied.
Author: Francois Trahan
Author: Francois Trahan
Author: Avinash K. Dixit
Author: Dimitrios Asteriou
Author: Aymo Brunetti
Author: Wenlong Weng
Author: Martin Feldstein
Author: Ian C. MacMillan
Author: Hanno Dihle
Author: Nancy L. Stokey
Author: Sergio Lehmann