Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models PDF full book. Access full book title Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models by Donald W. Katzner. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Peter Diamond Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 1483264505 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 569
Book Description
Uncertainty in Economics: Readings and Exercises provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of the economics of uncertainty. This book discusses ho uncertainty affects both individual behavior and standard equilibrium theory. Organized into three parts encompassing 30 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the relevance of expected utility maximization for positive and normative theories of individual choice. This text then examines the biases in judgments, which reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. Other chapters consider the effect of restricting trade in contingent commodities to those trades that can be affected through the stock and bond markets. This book discusses as well the individual problem of sequential choice and equilibria, which are built around the notion of sequential choice. The final chapter deals with an entirely different aspect of the economics of information and reverts to the assumption that markets are perfect and costless. This book is a valuable resource for economists and students.
Author: Sven R Larson Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1351754149 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 176
Book Description
This title was first published in 2002: This monograph sets out to model a macroeconomy that is inherently unstable because of qualitative - or Keynesian - uncertainty. By modelling a macroeconomic theory, this approach to fixed or sticky prices also investigates the link between uncertainty, sticky prices, and macro-stability - by suggesting that such prices improve economic activity rather than impeding it.
Author: Dario Bonciani Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economic stabilization Languages : en Pages : 105
Book Description
In this thesis, I study from various angles how uncertainty affects macroeconomic activity. Chapter 1 investigates the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity in the euro area by means of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. This amplification channel stems mainly from the stickiness in bank loan rates. This stickiness reduces the effectiveness in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. In chapter 2, I provide empirical evidence that uncertainty shocks have strong asymmetric effects on economic activity depending on the phase of the business cycle. In particular, the impulse responses estimated with the local projection method on a smooth-transition model show that in recessions uncertainty shocks strongly dampen economic activity. In an expansion, the effects are reversed, and uncertainty shocks have positive macroeconomic effects. One possible explanation is that during expansions uncertainty fosters investments and economic activity through the "growth options" channel, while in recessions it reduces investments via the "wait-and-see" channel. In chapter 3, I show that shocks to macroeconomic uncertainty negatively affect economic activity both in the short- and in the long-run. In a New Keynesian model with endogenous-growth through investment in R&D, volatility shocks have negative effects in the short-term because of precautionary savings, lower propensity to undertake risky investments and rising markups, and in the long-run because of the fall in R&D investment. The presence of long-run fluctuations in consumption makes agents more risk-averse, which strongly amplifies the effects of uncertainty shocks.
Author: Julia Köhn Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319553518 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 203
Book Description
In this book the author develops a new approach to uncertainty in economics, which calls for a fundamental change in the methodology of economics. It provides a comprehensive overview and critical appraisal of the economic theory of uncertainty and shows that uncertainty was originally conceptualized both as an epistemic and an ontological problem. As a result of the economic professions’ attempt to become acknowledged as a science, the more problematic aspect of ontological uncertainty has been neglected and the subjective probability approach to uncertainty became dominant in economic theory. A careful analysis of ontological theories of uncertainty explains the blindness of modern economics to economic phenomena such as instability, slumps or excessive booms. Based on these findings the author develops a new approach that legitimizes a New Uncertainty Paradigm in economics.
Author: Mateusz Pipień Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1000170845 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 121
Book Description
This book addresses one of the most important research activities in empirical macroeconomics. It provides a course of advanced but intuitive methods and tools enabling the spatial and temporal disaggregation of basic macroeconomic variables and the assessment of the statistical uncertainty of the outcomes of disaggregation. The empirical analysis focuses mainly on GDP and its growth in the context of Poland. However, all of the methods discussed can be easily applied to other countries. The approach used in the book views spatial and temporal disaggregation as a special case of the estimation of missing observations (a topic on missing data analysis). The book presents an econometric course of models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The main advantage of using the SURE specification is to tackle the presented research problem so that it allows for the heterogeneity of the parameters describing relations between macroeconomic indicators. The book contains model specification, as well as descriptions of stochastic assumptions and resulting procedures of estimation and testing. The method also addresses uncertainty in the estimates produced. All of the necessary tests and assumptions are presented in detail. The results are designed to serve as a source of invaluable information making regional analyses more convenient and – more importantly – comparable. It will create a solid basis for making conclusions and recommendations concerning regional economic policy in Poland, particularly regarding the assessment of the economic situation. This is essential reading for academics, researchers, and economists with regional analysis as their field of expertise, as well as central bankers and policymakers.
Author: Lars Peter Hansen Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9814578134 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 483
Book Description
Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.
Author: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451959044 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment remains a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal optimizing model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on private savings behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditure, the greater is the precautionary demand for savings and, other things equal, the larger is the current account surplus. Empirical support for the model is found using quarterly data from four large industrial countries.
Author: Ezgi O. Ozturk Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484316592 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Author: Jack Hirshleifer Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521283694 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 482
Book Description
Economists have always recognised that human endeavours are constrained by our limited and uncertain knowledge, but only recently has an accepted theory of uncertainty and information evolved. This theory has turned out to have surprisingly practical applications: for example in analysing stock market returns, in evaluating accident prevention measures, and in assessing patent and copyright laws. This book presents these intellectual advances in readable form for the first time. It unifies many important but partial results into a satisfying single picture, making it clear how the economics of uncertainty and information generalises and extends standard economic analysis. Part One of the volume covers the economics of uncertainty: how each person adapts to a given fixed state of knowledge by making an optimal choice among the immediate 'terminal' actions available. These choices in turn determine the overall market equilibrium reflecting the social distribution of risk bearing. In Part Two, covering the economics of information, the state of knowledge is no longer held fixed. Instead, individuals can to a greater or lesser extent overcome their ignorance by 'informational' actions. The text also addresses at appropriate points many specific topics such as insurance, the Capital Asset Pricing model, auctions, deterrence of entry, and research and invention.
Author: Donald W. Katzner
Author: Peter Diamond
Author: Sven R Larson
Author: Dario Bonciani
Author: Julia Köhn
Author: Mateusz Pipień
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Author: Klodiana Istrefi
Author: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Author: Ezgi O. Ozturk
Author: Jack Hirshleifer