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Author: Gregory R. Duffee Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper empirically examines the relation between the Treasury term structure and spreads of investment grade corporate bond yields over Treasuries. I find that noncallable bond yield spreads fall when the level of the Treasury term structure rises. The extent of this decline depends on the initial credit quality of the bond; the decline is small for Aaa-rated bonds and large for Baa-rated bonds. The role of the business cycle in generating this pattern is explored, as is the link between yield spreads and default risk. I also argue that yield spreads based on commonly-used bond yield indexes are contaminated in two important ways. The first is that they are quot;refreshedquot; indexes, which hold credit ratings constant over time; the second is that they usually are constructed with both callable and noncallable bonds. The impact of both of these problems is examined.
Author: Gregory R. Duffee Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper empirically examines the relation between the Treasury term structure and spreads of investment grade corporate bond yields over Treasuries. I find that noncallable bond yield spreads fall when the level of the Treasury term structure rises. The extent of this decline depends on the initial credit quality of the bond; the decline is small for Aaa-rated bonds and large for Baa-rated bonds. The role of the business cycle in generating this pattern is explored, as is the link between yield spreads and default risk. I also argue that yield spreads based on commonly-used bond yield indexes are contaminated in two important ways. The first is that they are quot;refreshedquot; indexes, which hold credit ratings constant over time; the second is that they usually are constructed with both callable and noncallable bonds. The impact of both of these problems is examined.
Author: Gregory R. Duffee Publisher: ISBN: 9781298051028 Category : Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781451857580 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper finds that the yield spread of investment-grade bonds relative to Treasuries, a proxy of default risk, predicts marginal changes in industrial production in the United States up to 12 months in the future, even upon controlling for a commonly used predictor such as the commercial paper spread. The paper also finds that systematic risk factors associated with the yield spread of investment-grade bonds to a variety of risk-free benchmarks - Treasuries, agency bonds, and AAA-rated bonds - have significant predictive content for future growth rate of industrial production at 3 to 18 months forecasting horizon, both in- and out-of-sample. Finally, a regime-switching estimation shows that the systematic risk component is also able to capture "industrial production business cycle" well.
Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 63
Book Description
This paper finds that the yield spread of investment-grade bonds relative to Treasuries, a proxy of default risk, predicts marginal changes in industrial production in the United States up to 12 months in the future, even upon controlling for a commonly used predictor such as the commercial paper spread. The paper also finds that systematic risk factors associated with the yield spread of investment-grade bonds to a variety of risk-free benchmarks - Treasuries, agency bonds, and AAA-rated bonds - have significant predictive content for future growth rate of industrial production at 3 to 18 months forecasting horizon, both in- and out-of-sample. Finally, a regime-switching estimation shows that the systematic risk component is also able to capture industrial production business cycle well.
Author: Giovanni Barone-Adesi Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137564865 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 137
Book Description
Where institutions and individuals averagely invest the majority of their assets in money-market and fixed-income instruments, interest rate risk management could be seen as the single most important global financial issue. However, the majority of the key techniques used by most investors were developed several decades ago, and the advantages of multi-factor models are not fully recognised by many researchers and practitioners. This book provides clear and practical insight into bond portfolios and portfolio management through key empirical analysis. The authors use extensive sets of empirical data to describe the value potentially added by more recent techniques to manage interest rate risk relative to traditional techniques and to present empirical evidence of such an added value. Beginning with a description of the simplest models and moving on to the most complex, the authors offer key recommendations for the future of rate risk management.
Author: Gady Jacoby Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
Using a simple theoretical framework, we issue two warnings with respect to the estimation of the yield spread - riskless rate relation. The first warning relates to Longsta and Schwartz's regression analysis applied to relative yield spreads. The second warning is closely related to Duffee's (1998) caution against interpreting results of yield-spread studies based on data sets, such as that used by Longstaand Schwartz (1995), consisting primarily of callable bonds. We provide strong support for both warnings using a data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing a unique provision allowing to identify callable and noncallable indices.
Author: Arne Wilkes Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN: 9783631606049 Category : Bond market Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Credit spreads express how markets evaluate the riskiness of corporate bonds compared to risk-free investments. Since credit spreads have been highly volatile especially during the last decade it is important for academics and practitioners alike to understand the dynamic interdependencies between credit spreads and their determinants. Based on a sample of European corporate bonds and different macroeconomic variables the author analyzes the determinants of credit spreads during the period of 1999 to 2009. With a macro-finance term structure model he shows that the European corporate bond market is largely integrated with some remaining segmentation. Furthermore, panel regressions yield that declining liquidity leads to a significant widening of credit spreads especially during the recent financial crisis. Finally, he demonstrates based on a cointegration analysis that a long-term relationship exists between credit spreads and their determinants and that credit spreads were significantly overpriced after the collapse of Lehman Brothers but have almost returned to equilibrium towards the end of 2009.
Author: Hoi Ying Wong Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
Empirical evidence shows that there is a close link between regime shifts and business cycle fluctuations. A standard term structure of interest rates, such as the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985; CIR) model, is sharply rejected in the Treasury bond data. Only Markov regime-switching models on the entire yield curve of the Treasury bond data can account for the observed behavior of the yield curve. In this paper, we examine the impact of regime shifts on AAA-rated and BBB-rated corporate bonds through the use of a reduced-form model. The model is estimated by the Efficient Method of Moments. Our empirical results suggest that regime-switching risk has significant implications for corporate bond prices and hence has a material impact on the entire corporate bond yield curve, providing evidence for the approach of rating through the cycle employed by rating agencies.
Author: Gregory R. Duffee
Author: Gregory R. Duffee
Author: Gregory R. Duffee
Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Author: Giovanni Barone-Adesi
Author: Gady Jacoby
Author: Arne Wilkes
Author: Ulrich Pape
Author: Hoi Ying Wong
Author: Ronald W. Anderson