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Author: Kian-Ping Lim Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
Basu and Morey [Trade opening and the behavior of emerging stock market prices, Journal of Economic Integration 20(1), 2005, 68-92] develop a theoretical model that predicts financial opening without trade reform does not lead to higher weak-form efficiency. The present paper brings their proposition to the data of 23 emerging stock markets. In general, the key results from fixed effects panel regressions support their prediction that trade liberalization, rather than financial openness, matters the most for informational efficiency. However, our empirical findings are not consistent with their postulated mechanisms through which it occurs. Firstly, it is not the official removal of non-tariff barriers that leads to higher stock price informativeness. What really matters for stock market investors is the actual level of economy integration in the reforming country with the world. Secondly, it is not the actual gain in productive efficiency in the real sector that leads to higher weak-form market efficiency. Instead, stock prices incorporate information about the expected gain from trade openness, such as higher future profitability or greater future productivity growth.
Author: Kian-Ping Lim Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
Basu and Morey [Trade opening and the behavior of emerging stock market prices, Journal of Economic Integration 20(1), 2005, 68-92] develop a theoretical model that predicts financial opening without trade reform does not lead to higher weak-form efficiency. The present paper brings their proposition to the data of 23 emerging stock markets. In general, the key results from fixed effects panel regressions support their prediction that trade liberalization, rather than financial openness, matters the most for informational efficiency. However, our empirical findings are not consistent with their postulated mechanisms through which it occurs. Firstly, it is not the official removal of non-tariff barriers that leads to higher stock price informativeness. What really matters for stock market investors is the actual level of economy integration in the reforming country with the world. Secondly, it is not the actual gain in productive efficiency in the real sector that leads to higher weak-form market efficiency. Instead, stock prices incorporate information about the expected gain from trade openness, such as higher future profitability or greater future productivity growth.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The main objective of this thesis is to show that additional insights, beyond the verdict of market efficiency/inefficiency, can be obtained from those existing statistical tests of the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis (EMH). As an introduction, Chapter 1 provides the background and outline of this thesis. Chapter 2 then surveys the relevant literature and discusses the motivations behind the development of the three key research questions addressed in Chapter 3 through 5, respectively. Chapter 3 examines the association between trade liberalization and the weak-form efficiency of stock market, motivated by the production-based asset pricing model of Basu and Morey [Trade opening and the behavior of emerging stock market prices, Journal of Economic Integration 20(1), 2005, 68-92]. Using data from 23 developing countries over the sample period of 1992-2006, we find that a greater level of de facto trade openness is associated with a higher degree of informational efficiency in these emerging stock markets, even after controlling for trading volume and market return volatility. Further analyses find no significant association between the extent of financial openness and the degree of informational efficiency. While Chapter 3 provides novel evidence on the association between trade openness and stock market efficiency, our empirical work can also be viewed as addressing the issue of whether the existing theoretical determinants (i.e. trading volume, return volatility, trade liberalization and financial openness) are capable of explaining the variations of index return autocorrelations across countries and over time. Chapter 4 employs the rolling bicorrelation test to measure the degree of nonlinear departures from a random walk for aggregate stock price indices of 50 countries over the common sample period of 1995-2005. We find that stock markets in economies with low per capita GDP in general experience more frequent price deviations than those in the high incom.
Author: Mohamed El Hedi Arouri Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3790823899 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 214
Book Description
Emerging markets have received a particular attention of academic researchers and practitioners since they decided to open their domestic capital markets to foreign participants about three decades ago. At the same time, we remark that theoretical and empirical research in emerging stock markets has been particularly challenged by their fast changes in nature and size under the effects of financial liberalization and reforms. This evolving feature has particularly led to a commensurate increase in sophistication of modeling techniques used for understanding financial markets. In this spirit, the book aims at providing the audience a comprehensive understanding of emerging stock markets in various aspects using modern financial econometric methods. It addresses the empirical techniques needed by economic agents to analyze the dynamics of these markets and illustrates how they can be applied to the actual data. On the other hand, it presents and discusses new research findings and their implications.
Author: Duc Khuong Nguyen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
On testing the impact of stock market liberalization on weak form market efficiency in emerging market countries, previous studies often provide divergent results. This paper revisits this empirical literature by using a time-varying parameter model which enables us to handle the gradual effects induced by stock market liberalization on informational efficiency. The model also corrects for both the serial correlation in return structure and volatility risk premium of local markets. First, we show that while some markets tend to converge to more efficient markets in the aftermath of stock market liberalization, others moved away from efficient state. For markets which were already efficient before financial liberalization implementations, the informational efficiency appears to be more apparent in recent years. Second, although we document significant effects of stock market liberalization on efficiency after controlling for economic and political perspectives, the direction of effects remains inconclusive because empirical results tend to be country-specific. Finally, it is worth noting that conditional stock market volatility has no significant impact on the expected returns.
Author: Nicolaas Groenewold Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 9781782541172 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
'. . . this book succeeds in its mission of analysing the efficiency, predictability and profitability of the Chinese stock market. It is strongly recommended to scholars. It is additionally recommended to practitioners involved in the market, sharing its prosperity and avoiding the possible risk. This book is also recommended to the students who want to learn the systematic application of econometric modelling to market efficiency analysis.' - Shiguang Ma, Economic Record The emergence of a stock market in China only occurred a decade ago and it remains something of an unknown quantity to many observers and traders outside of the country. This book provides an extensive historical and empirical analysis of the Chinese stock-market, the development of which is an integral part of the process of economic modernization that began in China in the late 1970s.
Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821365444 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 232
Book Description
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.
Author: Gourishankar S. Hiremath Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 8132215907 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 135
Book Description
India is one of the major emerging economies of the world and has witnessed tremendous economic growth over the last decades. The reforms in the financial sector were introduced to infuse energy and vibrancy into the process of economic growth. The Indian stock market now has the largest number of listed companies in the world. The phenomenal growth of the Indian equity market and its growing importance in the economy is indicated by the extent of market capitalization and the increasing integration of the Indian economy with the global economy. Various schools of thought explain the behaviour of stock returns. The Efficient Market Theory is the most important theory of the School of Neoclassical Finance based on rational expectation and no-trade argument. The book investigates the growth and efficiency of the Indian stock market in the theoretical framework of the Efficiency Market Hypothesis (EMH). The main objective of the present study is to examine the returns behaviour in the Indian equity market in the changed market environment. A detailed and rigorous analysis, made with the help of the sophisticated time series econometric models, is one of the key elements of this volume. The analysis empirically tests the random walk hypothesis and focuses on issues like nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks and long memory. It uses new and disaggregated data on recent reforms and changes in the market microstructure. The data on various indices including sectoral indices help in measuring the relative efficiency of the market and understanding how liquidity and market capitalization affect the efficiency of the market.
Author: Mona Haddad Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821386336 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 352
Book Description
The global financial crisis triggered a broad reassessment of economic integration policies in developed and developing countries worldwide. The crisis-induced collapse in trade was the sharpest ever since World War II, affecting all countries and all product categories. A huge shock to the trading system, combined with severe macroeconomic instability, makes it natural for policymakers to call into question the basic underlying assumptions of trade liberalization and openness. In particular, outward-oriented or export-led growth strategies are being reassessed as openness is increasingly associated with greater volatility. However, it is crucial not to lose sight of the dynamic benefits that openness can offer. Examples include technology transfer, increased competitive pressure that reduces markups and improves efficiency, and economies of scale. The real question is how to manage outward-oriented strategies so as to maximize the benefits of openness while minimizing risks. This book aims to contribute to this important and ongoing policy debate, bringing together recent empirical work on the trade collapse, its causes and consequences, and the broader trade policy agenda in the post-crisis environment. It addresses critical policy issues revolving around the topic of outward-oriented growth strategy, including policy instruments that help manage risks associated with outward-orientation, lessons learned from the crisis for particular countries and regions, and how emerging trade policy issues such as climate change, commodities, global production networking, and migration affect the prospects for recovery and outward-oriented growth.
Author: Kian-Ping Lim
Author: Kian-Ping Lim
Author: 
Author: Mohamed El Hedi Arouri
Author: Duc Khuong Nguyen
Author: Andrew Worthington
Author: Vince Hooper
Author: Nicolaas Groenewold
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: Gourishankar S. Hiremath
Author: Mona Haddad