Author: Thibaut De Saint-PhallePublisher: Greenwood
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 456
Book Description
Trade, Inflation, and the Dollar
Author: Thibaut De Saint-PhallePublisher: Greenwood
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 456
Book Description
Trade, Inflation, and the Dollar
Author: Thibaut De Saint-PhallePublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of payments
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Global Trade and the Dollar
Author: Ms.Emine BozPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148432885X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Book Description
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Understanding the Dollar Crisis
Author: Percy L. GreavesPublisher: Ludwig von Mises Institute
ISBN: 1610163125
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Book Description
The Great Inflation
Author: Michael D. BordoPublisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226066959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545
Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
The Dollar Abroad, Inflation at Home
Author: John Charles DalyPublisher: Institute
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Book Description
Making Sense of the Dollar
Author: Marc ChandlerPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1576603210
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
Book Description
Has the greenback really lost its preeminent place in the world? Not according to currency expert Marc Chandler, who explains why so many are—wrongly—pessimistic about both the dollar and the U.S. economy. Making Sense of the Dollar explores the many factors—trade deficits, the dollar’s role in the world, globalization, capitalism, and more—that affect the dollar and the U.S. economy and lead to the inescapable conclusion that both are much stronger than many people suppose. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets for twenty years as a foreign exchange strategist for several Wall Street firms. He is one of the most widely respected and quoted currency experts today.
The Way of the Dollar
Author: John PercivalPublisher: BookRix
ISBN: 3748755007
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Book Description
THE WAY OF THE DOLLAR TRADING CURRENCIES FOR PROFIT As readers know, my approach to analysing the currencies – its method – is essentially anti-crowd. We look where the crowd is not looking for an underlying rationale for the direction of the main trend. And we use a series of contrarian* sentiment indicators designed to orient us in the opposite direction to the crowd. This method has worked well, and it is timeless so it should always work. The method is OK. If we can have confidence in it and can apply it, we shall win. "My all-time favourite currency guy is John Percival (now retired and living comfortably in the French countryside I understand). My respect for his insights over the years is immense." "I have been a reader of John’s newsletter for over 20-years. I have learned a great deal from him, through his writings. There is a wealth of insights which I took from a very beaten up copy of his book, The Way of the Dollar, published back in 1991." "Mr. Percival doesn’t know this, but he was the only mentor I had in this market. I read his book from cover to cover to cover ... pages are falling out ... highlighted and notes everywhere. His book provides more insight every time you go back to it. And I go back to it often." "John Percival made a key point in the book that struck me – my belief in what matters when it comes to markets has little to do with trading success. I believed I was well armed given my freshly-minted MBA in finance and economics. I had already worked as a financial analyst and even did a stint in the never-never land of corporate strategic planning (talk about being paid to do absolutely nothing of value). Anyway, Mr. Percival’s book opened my eyes, but at the time I still didn’t understand just how valuable his advice was." "After years of trading and barking up all kinds of analytical trees, with major failure and moderate success in currencies, I went back to Mr. Percival’s book. This time I appreciated what was right there in the introduction:" Finally one had to see if there were other relationships which had any predictive value for currencies like inflation, trade, money supply, oil prices, economic growth, et al. So far, the conclusion is that few such relationships and none of the relationships that most observers seem to rely on are useful for predicting the dollar. "Say what? I thought to myself. Heck, I have all these so-called analytical skills and education and now I’m effectively being told by John Percival if you want to trade currencies and make money, you better pack up that degree and see the market for what it is, not what you think it is with your left brain dominance. John Percival argues in his introduction to The Way of the Dollar:" Because the systems constituent parts are mostly based on human behaviour which doesn’t change, not on fashion, we can be confident it will continue to work. The financial markets, as anyone familiar with them knows, are deeply paradoxical. They have a logic of their own which is why in a way the opposite of normal logic. Hence the market adage “sell on the news” applies to good news not bad news. Hence other bits of market lore like “a bull market climbs a wall of worry: a bear market flows down a river of hope.” Markets do whatever they need to do to confound the greatest number of people. This happens because prices reflect expectations. If everyone expects unemployment to rise, or a trade balance to fall, or inflation to remain steady, there is no intrinsic reason why they should be wrong: the expectation doesn’t affect the outcome. But if everyone expects shares to fall, or the dollar to rise, there is every reason why they should be wrong: because current share price levels already reflect the expectations of lower prices, and the current level of the dollar already discounts a rise. In other words, the expectation vitiates the outcome. "You can see why John Percival is an excellent mentor." "When I first got started focusing on currencies, I did my best to think only about what John Percival talked about in his book and push out all the smart rational analytical skills I was confident I had already learned. I didn’t realize the quality of this little book I stumbled upon; it was a true gem in the world of investment book wasteland where most reside, or should. I went on to do extremely well with my first real trading account." Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Copyright Notice and Disclaimer THE WAY OF THE DOLLAR Copyright © John W H Percival 1991
The Dollar and Its Rivals
Author: Riccardo ParboniPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic history
Languages : en
Pages : 216
Book Description
Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy – and What We Can Do About It
Author: Steve ForbesPublisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071823719
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
Book Description
Why a return to sound money is our only hope for a true recovery and a healthy global economy “Money clearly illustrates that sound money is an essential foundation for a free and prosperous society and that the Federal Reserve’s current policies are a greater threat to the economic future of the U.S. than government deficit spending. This is an important book well worth reading.” -- John A. Allison, President and CEO, Cato Institute, and author of the New York Times bestselling The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure “Few topics today are as misunderstood as the subject of money. Steve Forbes understands money better than most heads of state do, and in this provocative book he shares his vast knowledge and gives us sensible and time-tested recommendations for stopping future financial meltdowns.” -- Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC Senior Contributor “Economic and monetary policies can be difficult to master for even the savviest politicians. Money effectively communicates these complexities into a cohesive argument for economic recovery and preventing a new financial crisis. Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames deliver a gripping read and an intriguing viewpoint on how to get our economy back on track.” --Greta Van Susteren, host of On the Record, Fox News Channel Few topics are as misunderstood today as the subject of money. Since the U.S. abandoned a gold-linked dollar more than four decades ago, the world’s governments have slid into a dangerous ignorance of the fundamental monetary principles that guided the world’s most successful economies for centuries. Today’s wrong-headed monetary policies are now setting the stage for a new global economic and social catastrophe that could rival the recent financial crisis and even the horrors of the 1930s. Coauthored by Steve Forbes, one of the world’s leading experts on finance, Money shows you why that doesn’t need to happen--and how to prevent it. After reading this entertaining and hugely well-informed book, you will know more about money than most people in the highest government positions today. Money explains why a return to sound money is absolutely essential if the U.S. and other nations are ever to overcome today’s problems. Stable money, Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames argue, is the only way to a true recovery and a stable and prosperous economy. Today’s system of fluctuating “fiat” money, in which governments manipulate the value of the dollar and other currencies, has been responsible for the biggest economic failures of recent decades, including the 2008 financial crisis, from whose effects we continue to suffer. The Obama/Bernanke/Yellen Federal Reserve and its unstable dollar policies are accelerating our course toward disaster, the authors show, in numerous convincing examples. In Money, Forbes and Ames answer these crucial questions: What is the difference between money and value? What is real wealth? How does sound money contribute to a well-functioning society? How have our money policy errors led to the current problems in global financial markets? What can we do now to reestablish the strength of the dollar and other currencies? The authors argue that the most effective way to return to a sound money policy and a healthy economy is to put the dollar back on a gold standard, and they outline the several different forms a gold standard could take. They also share invaluable suggestions for how to preserve our wealth and where to invest our money. Money is essential reading for anyone interested in this crucially important subject.